Hartz, Martha F.

Abstract Models that estimate the probability of an adverse clinical outcome require an operational cutoff to translate continuous estimated probabilities into discrete labels that can trigger clinical action. Although statistical methods identify ‘optimal’ cut-offs, threshold selection ultimately reflects value judgments regarding harm tolerance, resource allocation, and workflow feasibility. We describe a governance-informed approach to selecting a deployment threshold for an asthma exacerbation (AE) prediction model integrated into clinical workflows. Using prevalence-adjusted performance metrics and real-world provider capacity modeling, we evaluated multiple candidate thresholds and quantified downstream workload and missed-event trade-offs. We demonstrate that statistically optimal thresholds may produce operationally infeasible alert volumes or unacceptable miss rates. We propose a structured threshold governance framework integrating statistical performance, clinical utility, stakeholder input, and human oversight safeguards. This case illustrates how threshold decisions should be treated as organizational governance processes rather than purely technical optimizations.

AbstractBackground/ObjectiveAutoimmune progesterone dermatitis (APD) is a rare autoimmune hypersensitivity reaction that occurs cyclically at the peak of endogenous progesterone production during the menstrual cycle in women. No study characterizing APD in the adolescent population is found; it appears likely to be underdiagnosed and undertreated.MethodsA retrospective, single‐center, review of all adolescent and pediatric patients (<20 years old at onset) with documented diagnosis of APD.ResultsSeventeen adolescent APD patients were included (mean age at diagnosis: 14.4 ± 2 years, mean interval of 13.6 ± 11.1 months between symptom onset and diagnosis). Twelve patients presented with urticaria, two with fixed drug eruption. Erythema multiforme, eczema, and recurrent aphthous stomatitis were present in one patient each. Exposure to exogenous progestin was present in two patients prior to disease onset. Progesterone skin test was performed in six patients with positive results in two. Fourteen patients received antihistamines and/or a topical corticosteroid. Combined oral contraceptives (COCs) were given to eleven patients, in seven via continuous daily dosing. Gonadotropin‐releasing hormone agonist (GnRHa) was used in five, progesterone desensitization in four, omalizumab in two, and danazol in one patient.ConclusionsAdolescent APD is associated with a significant delay in diagnosis. The most common manifestation is urticaria. Exogenous exposure to progestins is uncommon in adolescent APD. Continuous COC, GnRHa, and progesterone desensitization have been used to control symptoms. Large, multicenter studies are required to better define, diagnose, and treat this under recognized condition among adolescent patients.