Sekeres, Mikkael A.

Abstract Introduction TP53MT are associated with poor outcomes in MDS, especially in the context of biallelic MT. We have previously reported on outcomes of pts with HR-MDS with TP53MT who received HMA in the VALIDATE dataset (Kewan T et al, ASH 2023). Here we provide expanded analyses focusing on outcomes post allo-HCT, and we explore the prognostic significance of different classification methods for biallelic TP53MT. Methods The VALIDATE database includes 4,732 pts with MDS who received HMA-based frontline therapy from 32 international centers in 9 countries. For this study, only pts with HR-MDS with molecular data at time of diagnosis were included. Biallelic TP53MT status was assessed using three classification schemes: WHO 2022, ICC 2022, and a VAF-based Cleveland Clinic Foundation (CCF) method.1TP53 copy neutral loss of heterozygosity (CN-LOH) was evaluable in 386 pts (118 had TP53MT). Treatment responses were evaluated using IWG 2023 criteria (Zeidan A et al, Blood 2023). Composite complete remission (cCR) was defined as CR+CRbi+CRuni+CRh+CRequivalent. We calculated OS from time of HMA initiation to date of death or last follow up. Unsupervised clustering (MOSAIC framework) was applied to identify molecular subgroups within the TP53MT cohort. The study was funded by an independent grant from Abbvie. Results A total of 1,485 pts were included. Median age was 69 years (IQR: 62–76), with 66% male pts. Median bone marrow blast was 7%, and 28% had a complex karyotype. Treatment regimens included azacitidine (68%), decitabine (15%), HMA/Venetoclax (8%), and other HMA combinations (9%); 34% underwent allo-HCT. Overall, 392 (26%) had TP53MT with 430 TP53 mutations (missense: 316; truncating: 89). Biallelic TP53MT % varied by classification: 72% (WHO), 84% (ICC), and 85% (CCF). Compared to TP53 wild-type (TP53WT) pts, pts with TP53MT had worse OS (median: 11.5 vs. 23.9 months [mo], p< 0.001), were younger (68 vs. 70 years, p=0.039), and had lower counts at diagnosis. Complex karyotype (81% vs. 14%) and chromosomal abnormalities were more frequent in TP53MT pts. Pts with TP53MT also had fewer co-mutations in other genes. Response to HMA was evaluable in 1,094 pts: cCR and CR were 32% and 13%, respectively. TP53MT pts had higher cCR (39% vs. 29%, p=0.001) than TP53WT, but similar CR rates (16% vs. 12%, p=0.093). According to WHO 2022, biallelic TP53MT had higher CR rates than monoallelic TP53MT (18% vs. 8%, p=0.03), but similar cCR. ICC and CCF classifications did not differentiate response rates. Median OS did not differ by TP53MT allelic status using WHO or ICC definitions. However, using the CCF method, pts with biallelic TP53MT had shorter OS than monoallelic TP53MT (10.4 vs. 17.2 mo, p=0.038). In multivariable models adjusted for age, gender, and allo-HCT, only the CCF-defined biallelic TP53MT group had significantly worse OS (HR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.1–2.4). TP53MT pts undergoing allo-HCT had improved OS regardless of allelic status. Median OS for TP53MT pts with allo-HCT was 18.9 vs. 9.2 mo without all-HCT. This benefit was observed across WHO, ICC, and CCF classifications. However, a TP53MT VAF ≥19% predicted worse OS even post allo-HCT (14.6 vs. 47.1 mo, p<0.001). At 1 year, the survival rate was 78% (95%CI: 69-89%) in TP53MT pts who underwent allo-HCT and had cCR vs. 68% (95%CI: 55-84%) in pts who did not have cCR. However, 1 year survival rate was significantly higher for pts with TP53MT who did not have allo-HCT and achieved cCR (60%, 95%CI: 48-76%) vs. no cCR (26%, 95%CI: 20-35%). Unsupervised clustering of 335 TP53MT pts identified 9 molecular clusters (MCs). MC2, characterized by low TP53MT VAF (median 17%), fewer co-mutations, and frequent del17p, was associated with significantly improved OS (17.9 mo) and predicted favorable outcome (HR for death: 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4–0.8). Other clusters were enriched for adverse features (e.g., high VAF, multi-hit TP53MT).Conclusions The CCF method appears to best classify biallelic TP53MT pts with worse survival in the absence of accurate assessment of LOH status. Treatment response per IWG 2023 for TP53MT pts was associated with OS only in non-transplanted pts. Allo-HCT improved survival across TP53MT subsets, but TP53 VAF ≥19% at diagnosis remained a strong negative prognostic factor. Integrative clustering revealed a less aggresive molecular subset among TP53MT pts, suggesting refined risk stratification may guide therapy in this high-risk population. Ref: 1.Bahaj et al. J Hematol Oncol 2023.

Abstract Introduction: Marrow complete remission (mCR) in 2006 IWG criteria for MDS (Cheson B et al, Blood 2006) reflects achieving bone marrow (BM) blast percentage below 5% but is frequently not associated with meaningful count recovery. While mCR + hematologic improvement (HI) does reflect wide ranges of count improvement or transfusion reductions, HI is difficult to measure accurately in routine clinical practice. The 2023 International Working Group (IWG) response criteria (Zeidan A et al, Blood 2023) eliminated the mCR category without meaningful count recovery and reclassified mCR associated with meaningful count recovery into specific “less-than-CR” categories. Still, many clinical trials continue to use mCR as a secondary efficacy endpoint or as a part of overall response rate (ORR). Within the icMDS VALIDATE database, we assessed the association of mCR with OS in hypomethylating agent (HMA)-treated higher risk (HR)-MDS patients among both (1) transplanted and (2) non-transplanted patients. Methods We included patients with HR-MDS (defined as IPSS ≥1.5 and/or IPSS-R >3.5) who received HMA-based therapies from the international icMDS VALIDATE dataset. We evaluated the best response by IWG 2006 criteria into CR, mCR, or no CR/mCR. We then reclassified patients with mCR per IWG 2023 criteria into either (A) having achieved a composite CR (cCR) defined as CR + CR equivalent (CRequ) + CR with bilineage count recovery (CRbi) + CR with unilineage count recovery (CRuni) + CR with partial hematologic recovery (CRh) or (B) not having achieved cCR (no cCR). OS was calculated from time of HMA initiation to date of death or last follow-up by using 6-month landmark analyses. We used Kaplan-Meier methods to estimate OS, and the Log-rank test to compare OS. VALIDATE is supported by an independent grant from AbbVie. Results A total of1049 patients met eligibility.Median age of patients was 69 (range 21-95), 64% were men. While 61% received azacitidine, 17% received decitabine, and 22% received HMA-based combination therapy. In total, 37% underwent subsequent allogenic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT). Based on IWG 2006 criteria, 17%, 33%, and 50% achieved CR, mCR, and no CR/mCR as their best response, respectively. Patients achieving CR had superior median OS (25 months, 95% CI: 21-34 months) compared to those with mCR (16 months, 95% CI: 13-18 months; p=0.038) and no CR/mCR (15 months, 95% CI: 12-17 months; p=0.001). In patients who received a subsequent allo-HCT, the median OS for patients with mCR (30 months, 95% CI: 21-54 months; 1 year OS: 71%, 2 year OS: 55%) did not significantly differ compared to patients with CR (59 months, 95% CI: 25 months-not reached, p=0.80; 1 year OS: 73%, 2 year OS 62%) and patients with no CR/mCR (32 months, 95% CI: 21-45 months, p=0.46; 1 year OS: 69%, 2 year OS 54%). In contrast, in patients treated with HMA therapy alone without subsequent allo-HCT, median OS for patients with mCR (11 months, 95% CI: 9-15 months; 1 year OS: 46%, 2 year OS: 23%) did not significantly differ compared to patients with no CR/mCR (11 months, 95% CI: 9-14 months, p=0.85; 1 year OS: 47%, 2 year OS: 22%) but was significantly shorter compared to patients with CR (20 months, 95% CI: 17-28 months, p<0.001; 1 year OS: 69%, 2 year OS: 46%). Patients with mCR by IWG 2006 (N=347) were reclassified per IWG 2023 into having either achieved a cCR (N=219, 63%) or no cCR (N=128, 37%). Specifically, patients with mCR were reclassified per IWG 2023 into CR (4.9%), CRequ (0.6%), CRbi (26.8%), CRuni (29.4%), CRh (1.4%), PR (0%), HI (10%), no response (21.9%) and PD (4.9%). Patients with mCR who were reclassified into cCR had an improved median OS (16 months, 95% CI: 15-26 months; 1 year OS: 62%; 2 year OS: 43%) compared to patients reclassified into no cCR per IWG 2023 (13 months, 95% CI: 11-17 months, p=0.023; 1 year OS: 52%; 2 year OS: 31%). Conclusions Using the large icMDS VALIDATE dataset, we found that achievement of mCR by 2006 IWG criteria was not associated with improved OS compared to patients who did not achieve CR/mCR. Reclassification of mCR using IWG 2023 highlights the heterogeneity within the mCR group and suggests that IWG 2023 criteria stratifies outcomes in patients previously labeled as mCR by IWG 2006. IWG 2023 should be the standard used for ORR assessment in all future clinical trials involving patients with HR-MDS.

Abstract Background Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) develop from the acquisition of somatic mutations over years or decades. While some mutations are random stochastic events, others derive from extrinsic agents that promote genomic instability, including environmental exposures. Agent Orange (AO) is a phenoxy herbicide used by the U.S. military as a defoliant during the Vietnam War (1962-71), often diluted with gasoline to promote aerosolization, contaminated with the carcinogen dioxin during the manufacturing process, and linked to various cancers. We studied AO as a risk factor for MDS. Methods The prospective National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute National MDS Natural History Study includes patients (pts) with suspected or recently diagnosed MDS enrolled from 6/2016-6/2024. Bone marrow samples underwent central pathology review, resulting in diagnoses including MDS, MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm overlap (MDS/MPN), or clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (CCUS). Pts completed detailed assessment for AO exposure and other risk factors for MDS development. Associations between AO exposure, mutation prevalence, and key covariates (demographics, diagnosis, military service, clinical history, cytogenetics and smoking) were assessed using univariate tests of association, multivariable regression and Cox regression models for survival and progression. Results Among 2115 enrolled pts, 1191 (56%) had a myeloid malignancy or precursor condition and 130 (6.1%) reported AO exposure, the majority (96%) male. Compared to unexposed pts, AO exposed pts were more likely to derive from the 1945-54 birth cohort (p<.001), of age to serve in Vietnam, and to have an ultimate diagnosis of MDS or CCUS vs. a non-clonal diagnosis (57% vs. 44%, p=.046). AO exposure was more common among Blacks (12% vs 6%, p=.02), specifically Black males (21% vs 9%, p=.006). AO exposure was marginally associated with International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS)-R poor-risk cytogenetics (p=.066) and lower baseline platelet count (p=.072). In multiple regression analyses, risk of AO exposure was significantly higher for the 1945-1954 birth cohort (OR [95% CI]=10.3 [4.4-30.6], p<.001), among those with military service (OR=24.1 [11.9-55.8], p<.0001), and for Blacks vs Whites (OR=2.6 [1.2-5.5], p=.017). The crude risk of AO exposure trended higher for patients with MDS compared to idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS; OR=2.1 [0.9-6.0],p=.13), but not in multivariable analysis (OR=1.3 [0.5-4.4, p=.60]). AO exposure trended toward an association with younger age at MDS diagnosis (p=.06) and toward having a prior primary malignancy (49% vs. 41%, p=.09): Compared to non-AO exposed pts, AO exposed pts had higher rates of prior prostate cancer (16% vs. 8%), notable given its documented association with AO exposure. AO exposure was not associated with a history of or intensity of cigarette smoking (p=.67). After accounting for age, diagnosis, sex, and military service, AO exposure was significantly associated with increased numbers of pathogenic variants in 53 genes (OR=1.2 [1.0-1.4], p=.02) and with having Very Poor/Poor risk IPSS-R cytogenetics (OR=3.7 [1.2-11.1], p=.02). AO exposed and non-exposed pts had similar overall survival (HR=1.1 [0.8-1.7], p=.50), but those exposed to AO had a higher risk of disease progression in the first two years following diagnosis (HR =1.9 [1.2-2.8], p=.004). AO exposed pts appeared more likely to have del (5q) (15% vs. 8%) and del (20q) (13% vs. 5%) karyotypic abnormalities, and TP53 (7.7% vs. 4.5%), STAG2 (5.1% vs. 2.8%), and NRAS mutations (3.4% vs. 1.7%), although sample sizes were small. Focusing on gene pathways, AO exposed pts appeared more likely to have abnormalities in RAS signaling (10.3% vs. 5.7%), cell cycle (7.7% vs. 4.5%), and cohesion complex pathways (6.0% vs. 3.1%), but less likely to have abnormalities in cytokine receptor pathways (0% vs. 4.5%). ConclusionsIn our representative national cohort of pts with at least one cytopenia, and for the first time, we demonstrated that AO exposure is associated with younger age at MDS diagnosis, ultimate MDS diagnosis, genetic complexity of MDS, increased risk of disease progression, and with Black race, despite Black individuals comprising just 16% of men who served in the Vietnam War and being less likely to have MDS than white individuals. AO should formally be recognized as a risk factor for the development of MDS.

Abstract Approximately 17% of people aged 65 years and older are anemic, and 10% of death certificates report anemia as a secondary cause of death in the United States. Nonetheless, anemia remains unexplained in 30%-50% of older adults. This unexplained anemia of aging (UAA) is a diagnosis of exclusion. The mechanism, impact, and progression of UAA remain unknown. At older ages, anemia adds to pre-existing co-morbidities with significant adverse health consequences, representing a compelling unmet clinical concern. The National Institute on Aging held a workshop in 2024 to discuss current knowledge and research opportunities. Topics included the epidemiology of anemia at older age and its clinical implications; probable mechanism(s) underlying UAA, that is, low-grade inflammation’s effects on erythropoiesis; the role of microbiota in iron regulation in bone marrow; the importance of ruling out a diagnosis of leukemic clonal hematopoiesis (CH), which is more prevalent in older age; the role of senescence and aging governing hematopoiesis; and the effects of sex hormones on hematopoietic stem cell aging. Understanding the roles of these factors could reduce the proportion of the older anemic population whose anemia remains unexplained and offer insights into new potential diagnostic and intervention strategies. Speakers reviewed previous clinical trials in patients with UAA and CH. They discussed lessons learned and future research priorities, including efforts to develop new diagnostic algorithms and potential uses of machine learning.

Abstract Excessively restrictive inclusion and exclusion criteria in clinical trials are one of many barriers to clinical trial enrollment for patients with myelodysplastic syndromes/neoplasms (MDSs). Many organizations are developing efforts to increase clinical trial eligibility; yet, several recent publications focused on patients with MDS suggest that many patients with this disease may be excluded from clinical trials unnecessarily. Clinical trial eligibility should reflect the phase of the study and risks of the agent being studied. Phase 3 trials should be less restrictive than early-phase trials to represent the real-world population as closely as possible. We hypothesize that many clinical trials, particularly phase 3 trials, have unnecessarily restrictive eligibility criteria. This study aims to evaluate the most common eligibility criteria according to phase of trial and to determine whether criteria correspond with drug safety signals. We identified MDS clinical trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov from 1 January 2000 to 1 September 2023 and analyzed the eligibility criteria of 191 therapeutic MDS trials. We found that categorical inclusion and exclusion criteria are remarkably similar in representation across trial phases. Additionally, only 13% of trials are concordant with drug safety signals, suggesting that the eligibility criteria are often arbitrary. On behalf of the icMDS (International Consortium for Myelodysplastic Syndromes), an association of international MDS experts, we provide a position statement on restrictive eligibility criteria for MDS clinical trials that should be avoided with the aim of removing barriers to clinical trial enrollment.

Abstract Myelodysplastic syndromes/neoplasms (MDSs) are heterogeneous stem cell malignancies characterized by poor prognosis and no curative therapies outside of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Despite some recent approvals by the US Food and Drug Administration, (eg, luspatercept, ivosidenib, decitabine/cedazuridine, and imetelstat), there has been little progress in the development of truly transformative therapies for the treatment of patients with MDS. Challenges to advancing drug development in MDS are multifold but may be grouped into specific categories, including criteria for risk stratification and eligibility, response definitions, time-to-event end points, transfusion end points, functional assessments, and biomarker development. Strategies to address these challenges and optimize future clinical trial design for patients with MDS are presented here.

Introduction The International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) and its revised version (IPSS-R) were developed using datasets from patients (pts) with untreated MDS. The cytogenetic risk groups used in IPSS-R were expanded to 5 groups from the 3 used in IPSS. Among the new groups introduced in IPSS-R is the “very complex” karyotype (VCK) where ≥4 karyotypic abnormalities are seen compared to “complex karyotype (CK)” with only 3 abnormalities. However, the prognostic impact of VCK vs CK, as well as individual cytogenetic abnormalities and TP53 mutation (TP53mut) status within the CK and VCK subgroups in pts with MDS treated with hypomethylating agents (HMAs) has not been well studied. Hence, we analyzed these questions in a large cohort of HMA-treated MDS pts in the icMDS VALIDATE database. Methods The icMDS VALIDATE database contains MDS pts treated with frontline HMA monotherapy or HMA-based combinations from 22 specialized international centers. Pts with unknown HMA type, date of HMA initiation, missing age, missing sex, missing cytogenetic data, bone marrow or peripheral blood blasts ≥20%, or missing survival status were excluded. We performed time-to-event analyses using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared groups by the log-rank test. We measured overall survival (OS) from time of HMA initiation. VALIDATE protocol was exempted, acknowledged, or approved by all centers' IRBs. VALIDATE is supported by an independent grant from Abbvie. Results A total of 1940 pts were included. Median age was 70 (range: 18-99) years and 66% were men. According to IPSS-R cytogenetic risk groups, 1.9% (37) were very good, 43.4% (841) good, 15.5% (301) intermediate, 11.6% (226) poor, and 27.6% (535) very poor. By HMA type, 71% of pts were treated with azacitidine, 14% with decitabine, 6% with HMA and venetoclax, and 9% with another HMA combination. Approximately 28% of pts underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (alloHSCT). The IPSS-R cytogenetic risk groups had different OS (p<0.001)with median OS (mOS; months [mo], 95% CI) as follows: very good (43.4, 34.7-72.5), good (41.7, 36.4-46.8), intermediate (24.5, 23.1-32.4), poor (24.2, 19.2-28.5), and very poor (13.6, 12.5-14.5). The difference remained significant (p=0.001) after censoring at time of alloHSCT with mOS as follows: very good (40.4, 23.2-64.3), good (24.3, 22.2-26.3), intermediate (19.3, 15.1-22.2), poor (12.2, 10.3-14.8), and very poor (9.1, 8.2-19.7). Interestingly, the difference between mOS for intermediate and poor risk cytogenetics became more apparent after censoring at time of alloHSCT. Next, we compared the outcomes of pts with CK and VCK to non-complex karyotype (NCK) MDS. The mOS for pts with VCK MDS (13.6 mo, 12.5-14.5) was worse compared to pts with CK (19.9 mo, 19.9-16.8; p=0.004) and NCK (36.1 mo, 32.7-37.8; p<0.001) MDS. Among the 1458 pts with available molecular data, more pts with VCK (75%, 330) MDS had a concurrent TP53mut compared to pts with CK (40%, 21; p<0.001) and NCK (7%, 64 p<0.001) MDS. Considering only patients with TP53mut MDS, mOS for pts with VCK (12.2, 11.1-13.9) was worse compared with NCK (24.2, 16-1-53.1; p<0.001) but not with CK (19.9, 9.5-NR; p=0.9); the difference between CK and NCK was not significant (p=0.16). Among pts with TP53 wildtype (TP53WT) MDS, VCK (15.0, 13.2-18.2) had a similar mOS to TP53WT CK (18.8, 12.6-41.1; p=0.19) while both groups had worse mOS compared to TP53WT NCK (33.4, 30.1-37.0) (p=0.01). In a survival analysis of 616 pts with MDS with ≥3 cytogenetic abnormalities, -17/del(17p) (12.8 mo; p=0.009), inv(3)/t(3q)/del(3q) (10.9 mo; p=0.006), and del(7q) (12.1mo; p=0.024), though not -7 (12.6mo; p=0.23), were associated with lower mOS compared to the pts with MDS without these abnormalities (14.3mo). Conclusions Using one of the largest databases of HMA-treated MDS pts, we show that IPSS-R cytogenetic risk categories associate with significantly different survivals among HMA-treated MDS pts, even after censoring at time of alloHSCT. Importantly, VCK MDS was associated with worse mOS compared to CK and NCK MDS but not in pts with a concurrent TP53mut. Among pts with MDS with ≥3 chromosomal abnormalities, having -17/del(17p), inv(3)/t(3q)/del(3q), or del(7q) was associated with worse survival.

Introduction: Response assessment is used to evaluate effectiveness of hypomethylating agent (HMA)-based therapy in myelodysplastic syndromes/neoplasms (MDS) in clinical practice and trials. Recently, the clinical response criteria (IWG 2023) and the clinical-molecular risk assessment (IPSS-M) in MDS were published. However, it remains unknown whether the IWG 2023 response criteria have an independent impact on overall survival (OS) when adjusting for baseline IPSS-M risk. Additionally, the association of IWG 2023 response criteria with OS in patients (pts) undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-HCT) versus those who do not is unknown. Lastly, it is unclear if optimal time-to-transplant impacts OS in MDS pts who achieve a IWG 2023 defined remission with HMA therapy. We examined these questions in a large population of MDS pts within the multi-institutional international consortium for MDS (icMDS) VALIDATE database. Methods: High-risk MDS pts with IPSS ≥1.5 or IPSS-R >3.5 treated with HMA-based therapy were included in the study. Baseline IPSS-M risk was stratified into very low/low/moderate low (VL+L+ML), moderate-high/high (MH+H), and very high (VH). Response to treatment was evaluated using the IWG 2023 criteria and grouped into: composite complete response (cCR) and no cCR. cCR included: complete response (CR), CR equivalent (CRequ), CR bilineage (CRbi), CR unilineage (CRuni), and CR with partial hematologic recovery (CRh). We analyzed the differential impact of achieving cCR on HMA-based therapy prior to transplant on OS in pts who either did or did not undergo allo-HCT, while adjusting for their baseline IPSS-M risk in Cox regression analysis. Optimal time-to-transplant was determined based on age and IPSS-M category as described by Tentori et al. (JCO 2024). Pts proceeding to allo-HCT were stratified on whether they underwent transplant within the optimal time-to-transplant timeframe after MDS diagnosis or not. VALIDATE protocol was exempted, acknowledged, or approved by all centers' IRBs. VALIDATE is supported by an independent grant from AbbVie. Results: We analyzed 762 MDS pts. The median age at MDS diagnosis was 68 years (range: 19-95 years) and 64% of pts were male. Distribution of the baseline IPSS-M risk was: VL+L+ML in 110 (14%) pts, MH+H in 347 (46%) pts, VH in 305 (40%) pts. Pts received azacitidine monotherapy, decitabine monotherapy, and HMA-based combination therapy (e.g. HMA + venetoclax) in 52%, 21%, and 28% of cases, respectively. A total of 282/762 (37%) pts achieved cCR as their best response to HMA-based therapy. The median OS for all pts was 18.7 months (95% CI: 16.6-21.3 months). Pts who did not undergo allo-HCT (n=436, 57%) had an improved median OS if they achieved cCR when compared to pts in the no cCR group in all IPSS-M risk groups (VL+L+ML: 23.5 months vs. 10.7 months; MH+H: 20.8 months vs. 11.6 months; VH: 13.8 months vs. 7.5 months). Cox analysis demonstrated an independent effect of cCR on OS in these pts when adjusted for baseline IPSS-M risk (cCR vs. no cCR: HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.48-0.76, p<0.001). In contrast, in pts who subsequently received an allo-HCT (n=326, 43%), achieving cCR with HMA prior to allo-HCT did not provide an additional OS benefit, when adjusted for baseline IPSS-M risk (cCR vs. no cCR: HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.73-1.38, p=0.986). The median time-to-transplant was 6.7 months and 34% of transplanted MDS pts received their allo-HCT during the optimal timeframe. Among pts who achieved cCR with HMA-based therapy prior to allo-HCT, optimal time-to-transplant was associated with significantly improved OS (optimal vs. non-optimal timing: HR 0.55; p=0.033). Conclusion: Baseline IPSS-M risk and allo-HCT had an independent impact on OS, while IWG 2023 defined cCR had an independent effect on OS only in non-transplanted MDS pts. While this retrospective analysis occurred at large academic centers with specific expertise in the management of MDS, our data may have an impact on clinical practice: (i) failure to achieve cCR on HMA therapy prior to transplant should not impact the decision to proceed to allo-HCT, (ii) upfront allo-HCT without prior HMA therapy might also be an option if the clinical situation and availability of donors allow, and (iii) allo-HCT should ideally be performed during the timeframe that is considered optimal as defined by pt age and baseline IPSS-M.

Introduction Knowledge of epidemiologic risk factors, clonal changes associated with MDS development from precursor states, and evolution from one MDS state to another (lower- (LR) or higher-risk (HR) disease or leukemia (AML)) are largely limited to retrospective studies, which may not reflect the true MDS spectrum. The MDS NHS is an established prospective cohort of patients (pts) with suspected MDS enrolled at diverse US sites. Extensive clinical data and biospecimens are collected at baseline and throughout follow-up (F/U), in real time, as pts are followed for life. Here, we assess rates and potential predictors of progression providing a foundation for precise stratification across the MDS spectrum, which may ultimately guide intervention. Methods At baseline, all MDS NHS pts have central pathology review and those assigned to MDS, MDS/MPN overlap, AML<30% blasts, or at-risk of MDS (AR-MDS: CCUS and other at-risk) are followed prospectively. We compared AR-MDS with LR-MDS (MDS and MDS/MPN overlap with IPSS-R ≤ 3.5) and HR-MDS (MDS and MDS/MPN overlap with IPSS-R > 3.5). We defined disease progression as any F/U diagnosis of worsening disease or documented disease-related death. Rates of disease progression were compared between groups using survival analysis methods for cumulative incidence incorporating non-disease death as a competing risk. Associations between progression and predictor variables were explored using univariate tests of association and multivariable survival (Cox regression) models for time-to-progression and logistic models for probability of progression (yes/no). Results The MDS NHS enrolled 2051 pts during June 2016-February 2024, with 54% (1111, above categories) followed prospectively. Median F/U is 1.7 yrs (IQR: 0.8-3.1 yrs, max: 7.9 yrs). For the current analysis, 582 MDS and 505 AR-MDS pts were included. Compared to AR-MDS, MDS patients were more often male (70% v 61%, p<0.01), older (median age: 75 v 72 years, p<0.01), and had lower baseline hemoglobin (median: 10.1 v 11.9 g/dL, p<0.001), platelets (median: 124 x109 v 146 x109 cells/L, p<0.001), and absolute neutrophil counts (median: 1.9 x109 vs 2.8 x109 cells/L, p<0.001). F/U time was similar among AR-MDS and MDS (median: 1.9 vs 1.6 yrs), with both groups having a 75th percentile of 3 yrs and maximum of 7 yrs. A total of 331 deaths were observed (30%), with 145 (44%) of these due to causes related to MDS (myeloid disease and/or cardiovascular disease). Overall, 18.5% had disease progression, with annual rates of 8% (MDS) and 2% (AR-MDS) (p<0.01). Among HR-MDS, progression rates were greatest in the 1st year following diagnosis (33%) and declined thereafter, whereas progression rates remained between 5-8% for LR-MDS and 1-3% for AR-MDS over 5 yrs of F/U. AR-MDS had similar rates of progression within the first 3 yrs from diagnosis as MDS with the lowest IPSS-R category. Among AR-MDS, low hemoglobin (hazard ratio, HR [95% CI]=3.2 [1.4-7.3], p<0.01) was significantly associated with progression. Among MDS, low hemoglobin (HR=4.0 [2.2-7.0], p<0.001), low platelet count (HR=3.1 [1.7-5.6], p<0.001) and higher numbers of mutations (HR=1.13 [1.0-1.2], p<0.01) were significantly associated with progression. Due to the low rate of progression in AR-MDS, meaningful comparisons of mutations could not be completed. In MDS, univariate analyses showed that somatic mutation prevalence in gene pathways for transcription, cell cycle and RAS signaling, and in genes TP53, BCOR, SF3B1, DDX41, PTPN11, SETBP1, and JAK2 were significantly associated with the probability of progression (p<0.05 in all). In multivariable models, adjusting for patient age, sex, and MDS risk level, the probability of progression (PP) was significantly higher among those with vs without somatic mutations in BCOR (PP=63% vs 29%, p=0.004), PTPN11 (PP=67% vs 29%, p=0.009), SETBP1 (PP=61% vs 30%, p=0.02), JAK2 (PP=59% vs 30%, p=0.02), DDX41 (PP=56% vs 30%, p=0.03) and TP53 (PP=43% vs 29%, p=0.04). Conclusions In this large prospective cohort of MDS and pts at risk for MDS, the annual rate of any disease progression was 8% among MDS and 2% among AR-MDS, lower than some retrospective series. Specific cytopenias and genetic factors associated with progression were identified. The MDS NHS provides an incomparable opportunity to address the critical clinical challenges of management and prevention of MDS progression across its spectrum.

Introduction: Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) occur due to the acquisition of mutational events over time. Tobacco smoking is a risk factor for MDS and has been associated with distinct genetic mutations in solid cancers. We investigated the association between smoking intensity and duration and the number and types of genetic mutations in MDS using a large prospective cohort. Methods: The prospective NHLBI/NCI National MDS Natural History Study includes individuals with suspected or recently diagnosed MDS enrolled between June 2016-August 2023. Patient (Pt) bone marrow samples underwent central pathology review, resulting in diagnoses including MDS, MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm overlap (MDS/MPN), or precursor conditions, such as clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (CCUS). Self-reported smoking data were collected at enrollment. Smoking intensity (i.e., light, medium, and heavy) was defined per CDC definitions. Included mutations were those manually annotated to be pathogenic for MDS. Mutation frequency and prevalence, as well as associations with smoking history and other key covariates, were assessed using univariate tests of association and multivariable regression models for counts and proportions. Rates of disease progression were compared between groups using survival analysis methods for cumulative incidence incorporating non-disease death as a competing risk. Results: Of 1898 evaluable pts, 52% (N=979) had a history of cigarette smoking [MDS: 58% (252/436), MDS/MPN: 57% (52/91), CCUS: 57% (230/405)], and 18% still smoked at diagnosis. The mean ± SD cigarettes per day was 15.8 ± 12.5 and the mean ± SD smoking years was 29.8 ± 16.9 years. Compared to non-smokers, smokers were more often males (68% v 54%, p<0.001) in the 70-79 year age group (45% v 34%, p<0.001). Similar proportions of those with and without a smoking history had MDS (41% v 37%, respectively). Within MDS, there was no association between smoking and MDS prognostic risk per revised international prognostic scoring system. Compared to light smokers [1-10 pack-years (PY)], heavy smokers (30+ PY) were more often male (81% v 62%, p<0.001) and had higher rates of cardiovascular disease (38% v 20%, p<0.001). In univariate analyses, smokers and non-smokers had similar numbers of mutations (mean ± SD: 2.0 ± 2.7 in both groups). Pts with CCUS had the least number of mutations (1.5 ± 1.2), followed by MDS (2.3 ± 1.8), and MDS/MPN overlap (3.3 ± 1.8). Within disease groups, smokers and non-smokers had similar numbers of mutations. Mutation prevalence was higher among smokers v non-smokers in gene pathways for chromatin modification (15% v 11%, p<0.01) and RNA splicing (26% v 19%, p<0.001) and for individual genes ASXL1 (12% v 8%, p<0.01), SF3B1 (9% v 6%, p<0.05), U2AF1 (6% v 3%, p<0.05) and ZRSR2 (2% v 1%, p<0.05). In multivariable regression models, after adjustment for sex, age and disease group, smokers had significantly more mutations on average than non-smokers (2.0 v. 1.4, p=0.04). Moreover, the number of mutations increased significantly with PY smoked (p=0.006), and those at the 75th and 90th percentiles of PY had 1.8 and 3.5 times the number of mutations, respectively, compared to non-smokers, indicating a dose-response relationship. After adjustment, mutation prevalence increased with PY smoked in the gene pathways for chromatin modification and RNA splicing (p<0.03 for both) and for the genes ASXL1 and ETNK1 (p<0.05 in both cases). The five-year cumulative incidence of disease progression was significantly higher among long-term smokers compared to non-smokers/those with shorter smoking history (mean [95% CI] proportion progressed, 20+ years vs <20 years smoking: 27% [19%-36%] vs 18% [13%-24%], p < 0.05). Overall survival was significantly lower for smokers compared to non-smokers for CCUS pts [HR 1.91, 95% CI (1.03-3.55), p=0.04] but not for MDS [HR 1.21, 95% CI (0.53-1.30), p=0.41]. Conclusions: In this prospective, national cohort, tobacco smoking was associated with distinct genetic mutations related to MDS, suggesting smoking potentially contributes to its multi-step molecular pathogenesis. A dose-response relationship was also demonstrated, as was an association with progression and survival. Our data suggest that pts with a new MDS diagnosis who are also smokers should be counseled to stop smoking, as it appears to contribute to the acquisition of new genetic mutations that can lead to progression.