Liu, Jijun

Abstract Introduction Defining the epidemiology of myelodysplastic syndromes/neoplasms (MDS) and precursor conditions, such as clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (CCUS), is challenging due to inconsistent reporting, complex diagnostics, and evolving criteria. The National MDS Natural History Study (NHS) overcomes these challenges through central pathology review, prospective follow-up, and a nationally representative cohort enrolled at the time of suspected MDS, enabling robust analysis across the myeloid disease spectrum. We analyzed clinical, genetic, and pathologic features in NHS participants by race, ethnicity, and sex to characterize disease variation across populations. Methods The NHS (NCT02775383) enrolled individuals undergoing evaluation for suspected MDS from June 2016–July 2024 at 102 US sites. Participants underwent bone marrow assessment with centralized, adjudicated histopathology review. Those meeting WHO 2016 criteria for MDS, MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), CCUS, idiopathic cytopenia/dysplasia of undetermined significance (ICUS/IDUS), or oligoblastic AML were followed longitudinally. Demographics, comorbidities, exposures, and clinical data were collected at baseline and every 6 months. Deep DNA sequencing was performed on baseline marrow, with pathogenic variants manually curated (53 genes). Statistical analyses assessed associations using chi-squared, Fisher's exact, Kruskal-Wallis, logistic regression, and Cox models. A p-value <0.05 was considered significant. Results Among 2,021 participants, 1,174 (58%) were diagnosed with MDS or precursor conditions. Median age was 74 years (yrs) and 66% were male. Most identified as Non-Hispanic White (NHW, 92%), with 4% Black and 4% Hispanic. The most common diagnoses were MDS (42%) and CCUS (37%). Pathogenic somatic mutations were identified in 84% (774/918) of MDS/CCUS, with TET2 (26% of 918), DNMT3A (21%), and ASXL1 (16%) most frequent. Median follow-up was 1.8yrs and consistent across race, ethnicity, and sex (p≥0.6). Black, compared to NHW, participants were younger (69 vs 74 yrs, p=0.006) and trended toward more females (47% vs 34%, p=0.09) and more MDS diagnoses (51% vs 41%, p=0.07). Black participants showed more advanced disease (e.g., lower hemoglobin, higher peripheral blood blasts, higher variant allele frequencies (VAFs) of pathogenic mutations), yet received less MDS-directed treatment (14% vs 41%, p=0.01). Black, compared to NHW, participants had more mutations in RUNX1, TP53, BCOR, and DNMT3A, but fewer in TET2 and ASXL1. Hispanic, compared to Non-Hispanic, participants had fewer known pathogenic mutations, leading to more ICUS (19% vs 5%, p=0.02). Females, compared to males, were younger at diagnosis (72 vs 75yrs, p<0.001), had more ICUS/IDUS (20% vs 10%, p<0.001), fewer pathogenic mutations, especially in splicing/chromatin modifier genes (U2AF1, SRSF2, ASXL1, ZRSR2), more DNMT3A mutations, and lower VAFs (0.27 vs 0.33, p<0.001). Median overall survival (OS) was 6.4yrs, and shorter in MDS (4.2yrs) than CCUS (not reached). Worse OS was associated with age (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.06), MDS (vs CCUS; aHR 1.89), higher-risk disease by IPSS-R/CCRS (aHR 2.15), and TP53 mutations (aHR 2.17) (all p<0.001). A trend toward improved OS in Black participants was attenuated after adjustment (aHR 0.79, p=0.6). Progression (e.g., worsening of disease, increase in transfusion dependency, death) occurred in 53% of participants. Worse progression-free survival (PFS) was associated with MDS diagnosis (aHR 2.59), higher-risk disease by IPSS-R/CCRS (aHR 2.17), and TP53 mutations (aHR 1.86) (all p<0.001). Despite more advanced disease and less MDS therapy, Black participants trended toward improved PFS (aHR 0.62, p=0.14), while age was borderline significant (aHR 1.01, p=0.05). Conclusions For the first time, we show that among individuals evaluated for suspected MDS at sites across the US, 58% had MDS or precursor conditions. Differences across demographics underscore the heterogeneity of MDS. Black participants presented with more advanced MDS, received less treatment, but trended toward improved outcomes, particularly PFS, even after adjustment, suggesting biological rather than access-to-care differences driving disparities. These findings highlight the complex interplay of sex, race, and genetics in shaping MDS outcomes and reinforce the need for diverse, large-scale studies to improve risk stratification and personalized care.

Abstract Background Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) develop from the acquisition of somatic mutations over years or decades. While some mutations are random stochastic events, others derive from extrinsic agents that promote genomic instability, including environmental exposures. Agent Orange (AO) is a phenoxy herbicide used by the U.S. military as a defoliant during the Vietnam War (1962-71), often diluted with gasoline to promote aerosolization, contaminated with the carcinogen dioxin during the manufacturing process, and linked to various cancers. We studied AO as a risk factor for MDS. Methods The prospective National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute National MDS Natural History Study includes patients (pts) with suspected or recently diagnosed MDS enrolled from 6/2016-6/2024. Bone marrow samples underwent central pathology review, resulting in diagnoses including MDS, MDS/myeloproliferative neoplasm overlap (MDS/MPN), or clonal cytopenia of undetermined significance (CCUS). Pts completed detailed assessment for AO exposure and other risk factors for MDS development. Associations between AO exposure, mutation prevalence, and key covariates (demographics, diagnosis, military service, clinical history, cytogenetics and smoking) were assessed using univariate tests of association, multivariable regression and Cox regression models for survival and progression. Results Among 2115 enrolled pts, 1191 (56%) had a myeloid malignancy or precursor condition and 130 (6.1%) reported AO exposure, the majority (96%) male. Compared to unexposed pts, AO exposed pts were more likely to derive from the 1945-54 birth cohort (p<.001), of age to serve in Vietnam, and to have an ultimate diagnosis of MDS or CCUS vs. a non-clonal diagnosis (57% vs. 44%, p=.046). AO exposure was more common among Blacks (12% vs 6%, p=.02), specifically Black males (21% vs 9%, p=.006). AO exposure was marginally associated with International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS)-R poor-risk cytogenetics (p=.066) and lower baseline platelet count (p=.072). In multiple regression analyses, risk of AO exposure was significantly higher for the 1945-1954 birth cohort (OR [95% CI]=10.3 [4.4-30.6], p<.001), among those with military service (OR=24.1 [11.9-55.8], p<.0001), and for Blacks vs Whites (OR=2.6 [1.2-5.5], p=.017). The crude risk of AO exposure trended higher for patients with MDS compared to idiopathic cytopenia of undetermined significance (ICUS; OR=2.1 [0.9-6.0],p=.13), but not in multivariable analysis (OR=1.3 [0.5-4.4, p=.60]). AO exposure trended toward an association with younger age at MDS diagnosis (p=.06) and toward having a prior primary malignancy (49% vs. 41%, p=.09): Compared to non-AO exposed pts, AO exposed pts had higher rates of prior prostate cancer (16% vs. 8%), notable given its documented association with AO exposure. AO exposure was not associated with a history of or intensity of cigarette smoking (p=.67). After accounting for age, diagnosis, sex, and military service, AO exposure was significantly associated with increased numbers of pathogenic variants in 53 genes (OR=1.2 [1.0-1.4], p=.02) and with having Very Poor/Poor risk IPSS-R cytogenetics (OR=3.7 [1.2-11.1], p=.02). AO exposed and non-exposed pts had similar overall survival (HR=1.1 [0.8-1.7], p=.50), but those exposed to AO had a higher risk of disease progression in the first two years following diagnosis (HR =1.9 [1.2-2.8], p=.004). AO exposed pts appeared more likely to have del (5q) (15% vs. 8%) and del (20q) (13% vs. 5%) karyotypic abnormalities, and TP53 (7.7% vs. 4.5%), STAG2 (5.1% vs. 2.8%), and NRAS mutations (3.4% vs. 1.7%), although sample sizes were small. Focusing on gene pathways, AO exposed pts appeared more likely to have abnormalities in RAS signaling (10.3% vs. 5.7%), cell cycle (7.7% vs. 4.5%), and cohesion complex pathways (6.0% vs. 3.1%), but less likely to have abnormalities in cytokine receptor pathways (0% vs. 4.5%). ConclusionsIn our representative national cohort of pts with at least one cytopenia, and for the first time, we demonstrated that AO exposure is associated with younger age at MDS diagnosis, ultimate MDS diagnosis, genetic complexity of MDS, increased risk of disease progression, and with Black race, despite Black individuals comprising just 16% of men who served in the Vietnam War and being less likely to have MDS than white individuals. AO should formally be recognized as a risk factor for the development of MDS.