Deng, Yihong

Background SGLT2 (sodium‐glucose cotransporter 2) inhibitors reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes. However, no direct comparison of individual SGLT2 inhibitor drugs has been conducted, particularly among adults with moderate cardiovascular risk who comprise most people with type 2 diabetes. Methods We used data for commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicare fee‐for‐service beneficiaries to emulate a target trial of adults (≥21 years) with type 2 diabetes and moderate cardiovascular risk who started canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, or empagliflozin between 2015 and 2020. We estimated propensity scores using the super learner ensemble method and incorporated them as inverse probability of treatment weights into Cox models, estimating risk of MACE, expanded MACE, and hyperglycemic and hypoglycemic crises through December 31, 2022. Results The weighted cohort, balanced on all baseline covariates, included 137 232 patients (mean age 65.7 years [SD, 8.1], 75.3% non‐Hispanic White, 57.0% male, 81.9% on metformin, 11.4% on glucagon‐like peptide‐1 receptor agonists) starting canagliflozin (N=42 877), dapagliflozin (N=17 871), or empagliflozin (N=7648). The risk of MACE was lower among patients starting empagliflozin versus canagliflozin (hazard ratio [HR], 0.92 [95% CI, 0.87–0.97]), driven by reduced risk of all‐cause mortality (HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.80–0.94]). There was no difference in MACE between empagliflozin versus dapagliflozin or dapagliflozin versus canagliflozin therapy. There was no difference in remaining outcomes between the three drugs. Conclusions The 3 most used SGLT2 inhibitor medications demonstrate similar effectiveness on cardiovascular outcomes among patients with type 2 diabetes at moderate cardiovascular risk, with differences between these drugs small in magnitude. Clinicians and health systems should prioritize enhancing access to these cardioprotective therapies.

Background Glucagon‐like peptide‐1 receptor agonists (GLP‐1RAs) and sodium–glucose cotransporter‐2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) have favorable cardiovascular outcomes compared with dipeptidyl peptidase‐4 inhibitors (DPP4is) and sulfonylureas in adults with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. How these benefits vary across lower levels of cardiovascular risk is unknown. Methods We used nationwide claims data to emulate a comparative effectiveness trial and examine the heterogeneity of treatment effects of GLP‐1RAs, SGLT2is, DPP4is, and sulfonylureas on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) among adults with type 2 diabetes and moderate cardiovascular risk (annualized MACE risk 1%–5%, estimated using the annualized claims‐based MACE estimator). Results Among 386 276 included adults with type 2 diabetes, 25.2% had baseline ACME–predicted MACE risk >1% to ≤2% (lower‐risk patients) and 13.3% had ACME–predicted risk >4% to ≤5% (higher‐risk patients). By year 3 of treatment, higher‐risk patients derived greater absolute benefit than lower‐risk patients when treated with GLP‐1RAs versus sulfonylureas (absolute reduction in the estimated rate of MACE of 3.1% in higher‐risk patients and 1.6% in lower‐risk patients), SGLT2is versus sulfonylureas (absolute reduction, 3.9% in higher‐risk patients and 1.3% in lower‐risk patients), and GLP‐1RAs versus DPP4is (absolute reduction, 1.6% in higher‐risk patients and 0.5% in lower‐risk patients). The relative benefits for MACE were also greater in higher‐risk than lower‐risk patients with SGLT2is versus DPP4is (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78 [95% CI, 0.70–0.87] in higher‐risk patients; HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.88–1.12] in lower‐risk patients). Conversely, the relative benefits of DPP4is and GLP‐1RAs versus sulfonylureas were greater in lower‐risk patients: HR 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71–0.81) in lower‐risk and HR 0.91 (95% CI, 0.97–0.96) in higher‐risk patients for DPP4is versus sulfonylureas; HR 0.67 (95% CI, 0.58–0.78) in lower‐risk and HR 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70–0.93) in higher‐risk patients for GLP‐1RAs versus sulfonylurea. Benefits of SGLT2is and GLP‐1RAs were comparable across all risk levels. Conclusions Cardiovascular benefits of SGLT2is and GLP‐1RAs exist across all levels of moderate cardiovascular risk, reinforcing the importance of choosing glucose‐lowering therapies that can prevent MACE in all people with type 2 diabetes.

Key Points Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists were superior to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor and sulfonylurea for preventing kidney complications in patients with type 2 diabetes at moderate cardiovascular disease risk. Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor therapy compared favorably with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists for kidney disease outcomes. Background CKD is a serious diabetes-related complication. While guidelines recommend use of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) therapies to mitigate cardiorenal risk in high-risk patients, the benefit of early initiation of these agents relative to other commonly prescribed glucose-lowering agents in patients at lower baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains less clear. Methods This retrospective observational study emulated an idealized target trial using claims data from OptumLabs data warehouse to test the comparative association of treatment with a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i), SGLT2i, GLP-1RA, or sulfonylurea (SU) on a primary kidney composite outcome of incident CKD stages 3–5, kidney failure, or need for KRT in patients with type 2 diabetes and moderate CVD risk. A secondary composite outcome included all components of the primary composite outcome plus death. Results A total of 364,714 adults aged 21 years or older initiating treatment with a DPP-4i ( N =78,843), GLP-1RA ( N =42,049), SGLT2i ( N =45,466), or SU ( N =198,356) were identified. Relative to DPP-4i, SGLT2i (hazard ratio [HR], 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67 to 0.74; P < 0.001) and GLP-1RA (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.92; P < 0.001) treatment was superior for the primary composite outcome. Similarly, SGLT2i (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.73) and GLP-1RA (HR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.91) treatment was associated with risk reductions for the primary outcome relative to SU treatment. When comparing SGLT2i with GLP-1RA therapy, SGLT2is were superior for the primary composite outcome (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.86; P < 0.001). Similar findings were observed for the secondary composite outcome across all comparisons. Conclusions SGLT2is and GLP-1RAs were superior to DPP-4is and SUs for preventing kidney complications in a type 2 diabetes population with moderate baseline CVD risk. Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: NCT05214573.

BACKGROUND: Following regulatory approval, medical devices may be used “off-label.” Patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure is indicated to reduce recurrent stroke but has been proposed for other indications, including migraine, transient ischemic attack, and diving decompression illness. We sought to evaluate PFO closure rates and indications relative to the timing of regulatory approval and publication of key randomized trials. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the OptumLabs Data Warehouse of US commercial insurance enrollees from 2006 to 2019. We quantified PFO closure among individuals with ≥2 years of preprocedure coverage to establish indications, classified hierarchically as stroke/systemic embolism, migraine, transient ischemia attack, or other. RESULTS: We identified 5315 patients undergoing PFO closure (51.8% female, 29.2%≥60 years old), which increased from 4.75 per 100 000 person-years in 2006 to 6.60 per 100 000 person-years in 2019. Patients aged ≥60 years accounted for 29.2% of closures. Procedure volumes corresponded weakly with supportive clinical publications and device approval. Among patients with PFO closure, 58.6% underwent closure for stroke/systemic embolism, 10.2% for transient ischemia attack, 8.8% for migraine, and 22.4% for other indications; 17.6% of patients had atrial fibrillation at baseline; and 11.9% developed atrial fibrillation postprocedure. Those aged ≥60 years and male were less likely to undergo closure for migraine than stroke/systemic embolism. CONCLUSIONS: From 2006 to 2019, PFO closure use was consistently low and corresponded weakly with clinical trial publications and regulatory status. Nearly half of patients underwent PFO closure for indications unapproved by the Food and Drug Administration. Regulators and payers should coordinate mechanisms to promote utilization for approved indications to ensure patient safety and should facilitate clinical trials for other possible indications.

Objective To build on the recently completed GRADE (Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study) randomised trial examining the comparative effectiveness of second line glucose lowering drugs in achieving and maintaining glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes. Design Emulation of a target trial. Setting Medical and pharmacy claims data from the OptumLabs Data Warehouse, a de-identified US national dataset of beneficiaries of commercially insured and Medicare Advantage plans, 29 March 2013 to 30 June 2021. Participants Adults (≥18 years) with type 2 diabetes who first started taking glimepiride, sitagliptin, liraglutide, insulin glargine, or canagliflozin between 29 March 2013 and 30 June 2021. Participants were treatment naive or were receiving metformin monotherapy at the time of starting the study drug. Main outcome measures The main outcomes were time to primary and secondary metabolic failure of the assigned treatment, calculated as days to haemoglobin A1c levels of ≥7.0% and >7.5%, respectively. Secondary metabolic, cardiovascular, and microvascular outcomes were analysed as specified in the GRADE statistical analysis plan. Propensity scores were estimated with the gradient boosting method, and inverse propensity score weighting was used to emulate randomisation to the treatment groups, which were then compared with Cox proportional hazards regression. (Results The study cohort included participants starting treatment with glimepiride (n=20 511), liraglutide (n=5569), sitagliptin (n=13 039), insulin glargine (n=7262), and canagliflozin (n=5290). The insulin glargine arm was excluded because of insufficient control of confounding. Median times to primary metabolic failure were 439 (95% confidence interval 400 to 489) days in the canagliflozin arm, 439 (426 to 453) days in the glimepiride arm, 624 (567 to 731) days in the liraglutide arm, and 461 (442 to 482) days in the sitagliptin arm. Median time to secondary metabolic failure was also longest in the liraglutide arm. Adults receiving liraglutide had the lowest one year cumulative incidence rate of primary metabolic failure (0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.40) followed by sitagliptin (0.44, 0.43 to 0.45), glimepiride (0.45, 0.44 to 0.45), and canagliflozin (0.46, 0.44 to 0.48). Similarly, the one year cumulative incidence rate of secondary metabolic failure was 0.27 (0.25 to 0.29) in the canagliflozin arm, 0.28 (0.27 to 0.29) in the glimepiride arm, 0.23 (0.21 to 0.26) in the liraglutide arm, and 0.28 (0.27 to 0.29) in the sitagliptin arm. No differences were observed between the study arms in the rates of microvascular and macrovascular complications. Conclusions In this target trial emulation of an expanded GRADE study framework, liraglutide was more effective in achieving and maintaining glycaemic control as a second line glucose lowering drug than canagliflozin, sitagliptin, or glimepiride.

Background/aims There has been growing interest in better understanding the potential of observational research methods in medical product evaluation and regulatory decision-making. Previously, we used linked claims and electronic health record data to emulate two ongoing randomized controlled trials, characterizing the populations and results of each randomized controlled trial prior to publication of its results. Here, our objective was to compare the populations and results from the emulated trials with those of the now-published randomized controlled trials. Methods This study compared participants’ demographic and clinical characteristics and study results between the emulated trials, which used structured data from OptumLabs Data Warehouse, and the published PRONOUNCE and GRADE trials. First, we examined the feasibility of implementing the baseline participant characteristics included in the published PRONOUNCE and GRADE trials’ using real-world data and classified each variable as ascertainable, partially ascertainable, or not ascertainable. Second, we compared the emulated trials and published randomized controlled trials for baseline patient characteristics (concordance determined using standardized mean differences <0.20) and results of the primary and secondary endpoints (concordance determined by direction of effect estimates and statistical significance). Results The PRONOUNCE trial enrolled 544 participants, and the emulated trial included 2226 propensity score-matched participants. In the PRONOUNCE trial publication, one of the 32 baseline participant characteristics was listed as an exclusion criterion on ClinicalTrials.gov but was ultimately not used. Among the remaining 31 characteristics, 9 (29.0%) were ascertainable, 11 (35.5%) were partially ascertainable, and 10 (32.2%) were not ascertainable using structured data from OptumLabs. For one additional variable, the PRONOUNCE trial did not provide sufficient detail to allow its ascertainment. Of the nine variables that were ascertainable, values in the emulated trial and published randomized controlled trial were discordant for 6 (66.7%). The primary endpoint of time from randomization to the first major adverse cardiovascular event and secondary endpoints of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke were concordant between the emulated trial and published randomized controlled trial. The GRADE trial enrolled 5047 participants, and the emulated trial included 7540 participants. In the GRADE trial publication, 8 of 34 (23.5%) baseline participant characteristics were ascertainable, 14 (41.2%) were partially ascertainable, and 11 (32.4%) were not ascertainable using structured data from OptumLabs. For one variable, the GRADE trial did not provide sufficient detail to allow for ascertainment. Of the eight variables that were ascertainable, values in the emulated trial and published randomized controlled trial were discordant for 4 (50.0%). The primary endpoint of time to hemoglobin A1c ≥7.0% was mostly concordant between the emulated trial and the published randomized controlled trial. Conclusion Despite challenges, observational methods and real-world data can be leveraged in certain important situations for a more timely evaluation of drug effectiveness and safety in more diverse and representative patient populations.

ImportancePatterns of clinical utilization and comparative effectiveness of anticoagulants for cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT) remain largely unexplored.ObjectivesTo assess patterns of and factors associated with anticoagulant use and to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of contemporary anticoagulants in patients with active cancer in a clinical setting.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis retrospective cohort study obtained deidentified OptumLabs electronic health record claims data from January 1, 2012, to September 30, 2019. Adult patients (≥18 years of age) with a primary cancer diagnosis (except skin cancer) during at least 1 inpatient or 2 outpatient visits within 6 months before the venous thromboembolism (VTE) date were included. Data were analyzed from April 2020 to September 2021.ExposuresThe patients were grouped according to the anticoagulant prescribed: (1) direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), (2) low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH), and (3) warfarin.Main Outcomes and MeasuresOdds ratios (ORs) were used to present the association between factors of interest and utilization of anticoagulants. Main efficacy outcomes included risk of VTE recurrence and all-cause mortality. Main safety outcomes included the risk of hospitalization due to major bleeding. Relative treatment effect estimates were expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs.ResultsThis study included 5100 patients (mean [SD] age, 66.3 [12.3] years; 2670 [52.4%] women; 799 [15.7%] Black, 389 [7.6%] Hispanic, and 3559 [69.8%] White individuals). Overall, 2512 (49.3%), 1488 (29.2%), and 1460 (28.6%) filled prescriptions for DOACs, LMWH, and warfarin, respectively. The median (IQR) treatment duration was 3.2 (1.0-6.5) months for DOACs, 3.1 (1.0-6.8) months for warfarin, and 1.8 (0.9-3.8) months for LWMH. Patients with lung (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.12-3.65), urological (OR, 1.94; 95% CI,1.08-3.49), gynecological (OR, 4.25; 95% CI, 2.31-7.82), and colorectal (OR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.20-4.32) cancer were associated with increased prescriptions for LMWH compared with DOACs. LMWH (HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.90) and warfarin (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.13-1.87) were associated with an increased risk of VTE recurrences compared with DOACs. LMWH was associated with an increased risk of major bleeding (HR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.62-3.20) and higher all-cause mortality (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.15-2.25) compared with DOACs.Conclusions and RelevanceIn this comparative effectiveness study of claims-based data, patients with CAT received anticoagulation for a remarkably short duration in clinical settings. DOACs was associated with a lower risk of VTE recurrence, major bleeding, and mortality. Warfarin may still be considered for patients with contraindications to DOACs and those with poor persistence on LMWH.

Introduction: Prior AF screening trials demonstrated low yield, highlighting the need for more targeted approaches. An AI algorithm was developed to identify ECG signatures of AF risk during normal sinus rhythm, which has been validated in diverse external populations. Hypothesis: An AI-guided, targeted screening approach could improve the diagnosis of AF. Methods We conducted a pragmatic decentralized trial to prospectively recruit patients with stroke risk factors but no prior AF. The AI algorithm was applied to the ECGs performed in routine practice and divided patients into high- or low-risk groups. The primary endpoint was AF lasting ≥ 30 seconds on a subsequent 30-day continuous cardiac rhythm monitor. In a secondary analysis, trial participants were 1:1 propensity score-matched to real-world controls derived from the eligible but unenrolled population. Results A total of 1,003 patients from 40 U.S. states completed the study, with a mean age of 74 [SD 8.8] years. Over a mean of 22.3 days of continuous monitoring, AF was detected in 6 (1.6%) of low-risk patients and 48 (7.6%) of high-risk patients (OR 4.98 [2.11-11.75], p<0.001). Compared to usual care, AI-guided AF screening was associated with increased detection of AF (high-risk group: 4.2% vs. 11.1%, p<0.001; low-risk group: 0.9% vs. 2.4%, p=0.12) over a median follow-up of 10 months. Conclusions A prospective pragmatic study found that the AI a can risk-stratify a relatively uniform population (i.e., older adults at risk for stroke) to detect AF during short-term cardiac monitoring. Furthermore, when compared with usual care, AI-guided cardiac monitoring was associated with increased AF detection. As such, an AI-guided AF screening approach, leveraging existing EHR data and infrastructure, could be effective, patient-centered, and massively scalable, thereby reducing unnecessary health utilization and diagnosis-related anxiety (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04208971).

Abstract Objective To emulate the GRADE (Glycemia Reduction Approaches in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study) trial using real world data before its publication. GRADE directly compared second line glucose lowering drugs for their ability to lower glycated hemoglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ). Design Observational study. Setting OptumLabs® Data Warehouse (OLDW), a nationwide claims database in the US, 25 January 2010 to 30 June 2019. Participants Adults with type 2 diabetes and HbA 1c 6.8-8.5% while using metformin monotherapy, identified according to the GRADE trial specifications, who also used glimepiride, liraglutide, sitagliptin, or insulin glargine. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was time to HbA 1c ≥7.0%. Secondary outcomes were time to HbA 1c >7.5%, incident microvascular complications, incident macrovascular complications, adverse events, all cause hospital admissions, and all cause mortality. Propensity scores were estimated using the gradient boosting machine method, and inverse propensity score weighting was used to emulate randomization of the treatment groups, which were then compared using Cox proportional hazards regression. Results 8252 people were identified (19.7% of adults starting the study drugs in OLDW) who met eligibility criteria for the GRADE trial (glimepiride arm=4318, liraglutide arm=690, sitagliptin arm=2993, glargine arm=251). The glargine arm was excluded from analyses owing to small sample size. Median times to HbA 1c ≥7.0% were 442 days (95% confidence interval 394 to 480 days) for glimepiride, 764 (741 to not calculable) days for liraglutide, and 427 (380 to 483) days for sitagliptin. Liraglutide was associated with lower risk of reaching HbA 1c ≥7.0% compared with glimepiride (hazard ratio 0.57, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.75) and sitagliptin (0.55, 0.41 to 0.73). Results were consistent for the secondary outcome of time to HbA 1c >7.5%. No significant differences were observed among treatment groups for the remaining secondary outcomes. Conclusions In this emulation of the GRADE trial, liraglutide was statistically significantly more effective at maintaining glycemic control than glimepiride or sitagliptin when added to metformin monotherapy. Generating timely evidence on medical treatments using real world data as a complement to prospective trials is of value.