Smedby, Karin E.

PURPOSE In large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL), use of high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) to prevent CNS relapse (so-called CNS prophylaxis) remains controversial. International guidelines continue to recommend HD-MTX in patients deemed ultra high risk (UHR) because of a lack of robust data specific to these subgroups. This study was designed to examine the impact of HD-MTX specifically in UHR patients. METHODS Data from two previous retrospective analyses were combined to produce a cohort of UHR patients (≥1 of the following criteria: CNS international prognostic index score 5-6; testicular, renal/adrenal, or breast involvement; ≥3 extranodal sites), treated with or without HD-MTX. The primary outcome was CNS relapse rate (isolated or concurrent with systemic relapse) measured from diagnosis with additional landmark analysis of all responding patients with no progression event at 6 months. RESULTS Analyses were performed on 1,923 patients meeting UHR criteria. No significant difference in 3-year CNS relapse rate was observed between no HD-MTX (n = 1,051) versus HD-MTX patients (n = 872), including in multivariable analyses adjusting for baseline characteristics (3-year rate, 9.3% v 8.1%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.13 [95% CI, 0.82 to 1.57]). Analyses restricted to isolated CNS relapse also confirmed no difference (5.9% v 5.7%; adjusted HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.69 to 1.53]). In the landmark analysis (no HD-MTX n = 782, HD-MTX n = 773), no difference in 3-year CNS relapse was observed (6.7% v 6.6%, adjusted HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.62 to 1.44]). CONCLUSION To our knowledge, this is the largest international comparative data set of patients with LBCL with UHR features showing no significant reduction in CNS relapse with HD-MTX in all UHR or in any individual subgroup. Despite inherent limitations of retrospective analyses, the data strongly support previous studies in suggesting HD-MTX prophylaxis has no meaningful benefit for most patients.

ABSTRACT One quarter of patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) who achieve a complete response following front‐line therapy will eventually experience disease relapse. Existing prognostic models use baseline factors to predict outcomes from the start of initial therapy and are not intended for use following completion of treatment. We developed a conditional event‐free survival (cEFS) tool that predicts a patient's risk of lymphoma recurrence after completing front‐line therapy taking into consideration baseline risk characteristics plus the time the patient has been in remission. Model development used pooled and harmonized data from two observational cohorts and four randomized trials of patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy and either achieving a complete response or not experiencing an event within 12 weeks of end of therapy. Cox proportional‐hazards regression modeling with backwards stepwise selection was utilized for model development. External validation was performed using a large independent data registry. In total, data from 2757 patients were used for model development. The risk of experiencing an event at a time point after having survived a period of time could be computed parsimoniously using four basic predictors: age, ECOG performance status grade, Ann Arbor stage, and lactate dehydrogenase level. C‐index in the model development cohort was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63–0.68), compared to 0.64 (95% CI, 0.62–0.66) in the external validation cohort. We believe that this dynamic risk prediction tool will not only aid clinicians in providing data‐driven recommendations for surveillance, but also assist patients themselves with key decisions, such as family planning.

Abstract A short diagnosis-to-treatment interval independently predicts inferior outcomes in follicular lymphoma. Using international discovery and validation cohorts, we demonstrate its prognostic value beyond established prognostic indices, with implications for risk stratification, clinical trial design, and interpretation.

Abstract Background: Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is an aggressive and rare B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma with poor prognosis, even with treatment. Despite its clinical importance, the etiology of MCL remains largely unknown. Some studies have reported a positive association with family history, suggesting that genetic factors could contribute to risk. Methods: To identify germline genetic variants associated with risk, we conducted the first genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and GWAS meta-analysis for MCL, comprising 1,163 cases and 61,271 controls. The most significant loci were taken forward for replication in three independent studies, including 576 cases and 771,773 controls. To identify potential target genes and pathways of discovered loci, we conducted F-MAGMA, colocalization, and transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) analyses. To gain insight into underlying regulatory mechanisms, we performed integrative epigenomic analyses using DNase I hotspots and histone mark ChIP-seq data across diverse cell types applying the FORGE2 framework. Results: In the joint analyses, we identified eight genome-wide significant loci (P<5x10-8) associated with MCL risk, several of which were located near genes with known DNA repair (ATM), telomere (TERT), or RNA-binding functions (RBM20). Further analyses using F-MAGMA, which uses DNase-seq data to prioritize genes from GWAS, identified genes that were significantly associated with risk, including SP140, a chromatin reader and immune regulator of pathogen response. This gene also displayed strong colocalization with our lead variant in whole blood (COLOC posterior probability PP4=0.97). TWAS demonstrated significant associations with SP140 and ACTA2, which has been linked to cell proliferation (P<3x10-6). Enrichment for DNase I hotspots was observed in B and T lymphocytes (q-value<0.05), providing evidence for a role in immune cell-specific regulatory regions. Enrichment for enhancer-associated histone mark H3K4me1 was observed in B cells (q-value<0.01), highlighting a role for immune cell-specific enhancers. Transcription factor (TF) motif enrichment analysis pointed to TFs critical for B-cell development and differentiation, notably TCF3 and EP300 (q<0.01 for both), suggesting an association between B-cell lineage regulation and MCL risk. Finally, genome-wide SNP-based heritability was estimated to be 17%, underscoring the importance of common variants in MCL risk. Conclusion: Our study provides novel insight into the inherited susceptibility of MCL by identifying eight significant loci and estimating substantial common variant heritability. These findings highlight a role for several distinct biological pathways -specifically DNA repair, telomerase function, and B-cell differentiation- in the etiology of MCL, offering new targets for mechanistic investigation. Citation Format: Charles E. Breeze, Alyssa Clay-Gilmour, Hanla A. Park, Ólafur B. Davíðsson, Angelica Macauda, Brenda M. Birmann, Elizabeth E. Brown, Murat Güler, Michelle A. T. Hildebrandt, Alexandra Nieters, Krystle Ong, Jojo Biel-Nielsen Dietz, Karin E. Smedby, Karl Smith-Byrne, Rosalie Griffin, Sophia S. Wang, Susan Slager, James R. Cerhan, Jonathan N. Hofmann, Qing Lan, Nathaniel Rothman, Ingrid Glimelius, Henrik Hjalgrim, James Mckay, Sonja I. Berndt. Genome-wide association study of mantle cell lymphoma identifies novel loci suggesting a critical role for B-cell chromatin readers and DNA repair mechanisms [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 3602.

PURPOSE Although most patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) can expect an indolent course, progressive lymphoma remains the primary cause of death during the first decade after diagnosis. Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) of starting first-line (1L) immunochemotherapy defines a high-risk population with poor survival, but better risk stratification at diagnosis is needed. METHODS The FLIPI24 model was developed and internally validated to predict 24-month event rates using individual data from 4,485 patients treated with 1L immunochemotherapy from 10 observational cohorts of FL. Overall and cause-specific survival was further evaluated in FLIPI24 risk groups. External validation in the 1L immunochemotherapy setting was performed using the prospective observational Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) cohort (N = 565) and three randomized phase III trials (N = 3,192); extension to all patients with FL (any 1L therapy) was performed in the LEO cohort (N = 1,445) and its Molecular Epidemiology Resource subcohort (N = 1,074). RESULTS The FLIPI24 model uses age and four blood-based variables (hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, beta-2 microglobulin, and WBC count). FLIPI24 showed consistent performance across validation and extension data sets, which was superior to existing prognostic tools. Across the four external immunochemotherapy validation data sets, patients with high-risk FLIPI24 (23%-32% of patients) had significantly higher 24-month event rates (22%-35%) and inferior 5-year overall survival (77%-83%) compared with patients with low-risk FLIPI24 (29%-31% of patients, 24-month event rates: 10%-12%; 5-year OS: 96%-97%). Results were consistent when evaluating lymphoma-related death and when extended to all patients with FL. CONCLUSION The FLIPI24 model robustly stratifies, at diagnosis, patients with FL at increased risk of lymphoma-related death versus patients with very low lymphoma-related mortality during the first decade after diagnosis. FLIPI24 can be used to enrich future clinical trial designs in newly diagnosed FL.

Abstract Obesity has been associated with non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but the evidence is inconclusive. We examined the association between genetically determined adiposity and four common NHL subtypes: diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and marginal zone lymphoma, using eight genome‐wide association studies of European ancestry ( N = 10,629 cases, 9505 controls) and constructing polygenic scores for body mass index (BMI), waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR), and waist‐to‐hip ratio adjusted for BMI (WHRadjBMI). Higher genetically determined BMI was associated with an increased risk of DLBCL [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.05–1.33, p = .005]. This finding was consistent with Mendelian randomization analyses, which demonstrated a similar increased risk of DLBCL with higher genetically determined BMI (OR per SD = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02–1.23, p = .03). No significant associations were observed with other NHL subtypes. Our study demonstrates a positive link between a genetically determined BMI and an increased risk of DLBCL, providing additional support for increased adiposity as a risk factor for DLBCL.

AbstractBackgroundChronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a heterogeneous disease. Whereas some patients have an indolent disease, others experience an aggressive course and early death. Our aim was to investigate if modifiable and non‐modifiable medical history and lifestyle factors prior to diagnosis had an impact on the natural course of the disease.MethodIn 1154 CLL patients, we assessed if the weight, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption or non‐modifiable characteristics including family history of lymphoid malignancy and medical history were associated with time‐to‐first‐treatment (TTFT) and adjusted all results for the CLL‐International Prognostic Index (CLL‐IPI).ResultsTTFT was shorter for patients with high/very high‐risk CLL‐IPI than those with low/intermediate risk CLL‐IPI. In the adjusted analysis we did not find additional impact on TTFT besides CLL‐IPI from any environmental characteristics assessed.ConclusionsWe found limited impact of environmental factors on the natural course of CLL (measured as the TTFT in treatment naïve patients) providing valuable knowledge, and potential relief, to share with patients at the time of diagnosis.

PURPOSE Patients diagnosed with advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (aHL) have historically been risk-stratified using the International Prognostic Score (IPS). This study investigated if a machine learning (ML) approach could outperform existing models when it comes to predicting overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). PATIENTS AND METHODS This study used patient data from the Danish National Lymphoma Register for model development (development cohort). The ML model was developed using stacking, which combines several predictive survival models (Cox proportional hazard, flexible parametric model, IPS, principal component, penalized regression) into a single model, and was compared with two versions of IPS (IPS-3 and IPS-7) and the newly developed aHL international prognostic index (A-HIPI). Internal model validation was performed using nested cross-validation, and external validation was performed using patient data from the Swedish Lymphoma Register and Cancer Registry of Norway (validation cohort). RESULTS In total, 707 and 760 patients with aHL were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Examining model performance for OS in the development cohort, the concordance index (C-index) for the ML model, IPS-7, IPS-3, and A-HIPI was found to be 0.789, 0.608, 0.650, and 0.768, respectively. The corresponding estimates in the validation cohort were 0.749, 0.700, 0.663, and 0.741. For PFS, the ML model achieved the highest C-index in both cohorts (0.665 in the development cohort and 0.691 in the validation cohort). The time-varying AUCs for both the ML model and the A-HIPI were consistently higher in both cohorts compared with the IPS models within the first 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSION The new prognostic model for aHL on the basis of ML techniques demonstrated a substantial improvement compared with the IPS models, but yielded a limited improvement in predictive performance compared with the A-HIPI.

PURPOSE CNS progression or relapse is an uncommon but devastating complication of aggressive B-cell lymphoma. There is no consensus regarding the optimal approach to CNS prophylaxis. This study was designed to determine whether high-dose methotrexate (HD-MTX) is effective at preventing CNS progression in patients at high risk of this complication. PATIENTS AND METHODS Patients age 18-80 years with aggressive B-cell lymphoma and high risk of CNS progression, treated with curative-intent anti–CD20-based chemoimmunotherapy, were included in this international, retrospective, observational study. Cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and cumulative risks of CNS progression were calculated according to use of HD-MTX, with time to CNS progression calculated from diagnosis for all patients (all-pts) and from completion of frontline systemic lymphoma induction therapy, for patients in complete response at completion of chemoimmunotherapy (CR-pts). RESULTS Two thousand four hundred eighteen all-pts (HD-MTX; n = 425) and 1,616 CR-pts (HD-MTX; n = 356) were included. CNS International Prognostic Index was 4-6 in 83.4% all-pts. Patients treated with HD-MTX had a lower risk of CNS progression (adjusted HR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.38 to 0.90]; P = .014), but significance was not retained when confined to CR-pts (adjusted HR, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.42 to 1.30]; P = .29), with 5-year adjusted risk difference of 1.6% (95% CI, –1.5 to 4.4; all-pts) and 1.4% (95% CI, –1.5 to 4.1; CR-pts). Subgroups were underpowered to draw definitive conclusions regarding the efficacy of HD-MTX in individual high-risk clinical scenarios; however, there was no clear reduction in CNS progression risk with HD-MTX in any high-risk subgroup. CONCLUSION In this large study, high-risk patients receiving HD-MTX had a 7.2% 2-year risk of CNS progression, consistent with the progression risk in previously reported high-risk cohorts. Use of HD-MTX was not associated with a clinically meaningful reduction in risk of CNS progression.