Cerhan, James R.

Abstract Prognostic indices such as the CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) and the International Prognostic Score for Early-stage CLL (IPS-E) can predict time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with early-stage CLL. Their ability to predict risk of infection - a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality in CLL - remains uncertain. The CLL-TIM is a machine-learning model developed in Europe that integrates clinical, laboratory, and infection-related data to predict TTFT or infection risk within 2-years of diagnosis, Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) 0.74; Agius et al., Nat Comm 11, 363 2020. We conducted the first validation of CLL-TIM in a US cohort of newly diagnosed CLL patients and compared its performance with the CLL-IPI and IPS-E indices. Adults with newly diagnosed CLL (2000-2020) were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project using International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes; all diagnoses were confirmed. We replicated the variable selection from the original CLL-TIM model and applied it to our cohort. The primary endpoint was a 2-year composite of either TTFT or incident infection (defined as having blood cultures drawn). Model performance was evaluated using ROC-AUC consistent with the original CLL-TIM methods. CLL-IPI and IPS-E performance was assessed using time-dependent ROC-AUC; pairwise differences in discrimination were tested using DeLong. We identified 454 CLL patients with a median age of 72 years [range, 30-97], 166 (37%) were female, Rai Stage was 0-II in 399 (92%) patients. IGHV genes were unmutated in 130/305 (42%) patients and TP53 disruption (either del17p by FISH or TP53 mutation) was present in 24/329 (8%) patients. At 2-years, 55 (12%) patients received CLL therapy, and 56 (12%) patients had an infection. The 2-year composite endpoint was observed in 94 (21%) patients. The ROC-AUC was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.80) for CLL-TIM, 0.69 for CLL-IPI (95% CI 0.63-0.75, p=0.11 compared to CLL-TIM) , and 0.68 for IPS-E (95% CI 0.62-0.74, p=0.02 compared to CLL-TIM). We also evaluated the ROC-AUC using all the prognostic models for each individual endpoints. The corresponding ROC-AUC for TTFT at 2 years were 0.79, 0.74, and 0.76 for CLL-TIM, CLL-IPI, and IPS-E, respectively; and for infection at 2 years were 0.68, 0.57, and 0.52, respectively. This is the first validation of the CLL-TIM in a US-based cohort of newly diagnosed CLL patients. Although the CLL-TIM model exceeded the minimally meaningful discrimination threshold (AUC >0.7) for individual patient-level risk prediction, there was no statistical difference in AUC between CLL-TIM and CLL-IPI, suggesting either model can predict the composite endpoint at 2 years. Most of the observed discrimination was driven by prediction of TTFT rather than infection, underscoring the need to develop more infection-specific risk models for newly diagnosed CLL. Citation Format: Raphael Mwangi, Tait D. Shanafelt, Soren Basnet, Emily L. West, Owen Keegan, Timothy G. Call, Yao Yuan, Bryan Alexis Vallejo, Paul J. Hampel, Lindsey E. Roeker, Yucai Wang, Saad J. Kenderian, Sara J. Achenbach, Aaron D. Norman, Kari G. Rabe, Neil E. Kay, James R. Cerhan, Curtis A. Hanson, Susan L. Slager, Sameer A. Parikh. Validation of the CLL treatment infection model (CLL-TIM) in patients with newly diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 4228.

Abstract Background: Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is an aggressive and rare B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma with poor prognosis, even with treatment. Despite its clinical importance, the etiology of MCL remains largely unknown. Some studies have reported a positive association with family history, suggesting that genetic factors could contribute to risk. Methods: To identify germline genetic variants associated with risk, we conducted the first genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and GWAS meta-analysis for MCL, comprising 1,163 cases and 61,271 controls. The most significant loci were taken forward for replication in three independent studies, including 576 cases and 771,773 controls. To identify potential target genes and pathways of discovered loci, we conducted F-MAGMA, colocalization, and transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) analyses. To gain insight into underlying regulatory mechanisms, we performed integrative epigenomic analyses using DNase I hotspots and histone mark ChIP-seq data across diverse cell types applying the FORGE2 framework. Results: In the joint analyses, we identified eight genome-wide significant loci (P<5x10-8) associated with MCL risk, several of which were located near genes with known DNA repair (ATM), telomere (TERT), or RNA-binding functions (RBM20). Further analyses using F-MAGMA, which uses DNase-seq data to prioritize genes from GWAS, identified genes that were significantly associated with risk, including SP140, a chromatin reader and immune regulator of pathogen response. This gene also displayed strong colocalization with our lead variant in whole blood (COLOC posterior probability PP4=0.97). TWAS demonstrated significant associations with SP140 and ACTA2, which has been linked to cell proliferation (P<3x10-6). Enrichment for DNase I hotspots was observed in B and T lymphocytes (q-value<0.05), providing evidence for a role in immune cell-specific regulatory regions. Enrichment for enhancer-associated histone mark H3K4me1 was observed in B cells (q-value<0.01), highlighting a role for immune cell-specific enhancers. Transcription factor (TF) motif enrichment analysis pointed to TFs critical for B-cell development and differentiation, notably TCF3 and EP300 (q<0.01 for both), suggesting an association between B-cell lineage regulation and MCL risk. Finally, genome-wide SNP-based heritability was estimated to be 17%, underscoring the importance of common variants in MCL risk. Conclusion: Our study provides novel insight into the inherited susceptibility of MCL by identifying eight significant loci and estimating substantial common variant heritability. These findings highlight a role for several distinct biological pathways -specifically DNA repair, telomerase function, and B-cell differentiation- in the etiology of MCL, offering new targets for mechanistic investigation. Citation Format: Charles E. Breeze, Alyssa Clay-Gilmour, Hanla A. Park, Ólafur B. Davíðsson, Angelica Macauda, Brenda M. Birmann, Elizabeth E. Brown, Murat Güler, Michelle A. T. Hildebrandt, Alexandra Nieters, Krystle Ong, Jojo Biel-Nielsen Dietz, Karin E. Smedby, Karl Smith-Byrne, Rosalie Griffin, Sophia S. Wang, Susan Slager, James R. Cerhan, Jonathan N. Hofmann, Qing Lan, Nathaniel Rothman, Ingrid Glimelius, Henrik Hjalgrim, James Mckay, Sonja I. Berndt. Genome-wide association study of mantle cell lymphoma identifies novel loci suggesting a critical role for B-cell chromatin readers and DNA repair mechanisms [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 3602.