Wang, Yucai

Abstract Prognostic indices such as the CLL International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) and the International Prognostic Score for Early-stage CLL (IPS-E) can predict time to first treatment (TTFT) in patients with early-stage CLL. Their ability to predict risk of infection - a leading contributor to morbidity and mortality in CLL - remains uncertain. The CLL-TIM is a machine-learning model developed in Europe that integrates clinical, laboratory, and infection-related data to predict TTFT or infection risk within 2-years of diagnosis, Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) 0.74; Agius et al., Nat Comm 11, 363 2020. We conducted the first validation of CLL-TIM in a US cohort of newly diagnosed CLL patients and compared its performance with the CLL-IPI and IPS-E indices. Adults with newly diagnosed CLL (2000-2020) were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project using International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes; all diagnoses were confirmed. We replicated the variable selection from the original CLL-TIM model and applied it to our cohort. The primary endpoint was a 2-year composite of either TTFT or incident infection (defined as having blood cultures drawn). Model performance was evaluated using ROC-AUC consistent with the original CLL-TIM methods. CLL-IPI and IPS-E performance was assessed using time-dependent ROC-AUC; pairwise differences in discrimination were tested using DeLong. We identified 454 CLL patients with a median age of 72 years [range, 30-97], 166 (37%) were female, Rai Stage was 0-II in 399 (92%) patients. IGHV genes were unmutated in 130/305 (42%) patients and TP53 disruption (either del17p by FISH or TP53 mutation) was present in 24/329 (8%) patients. At 2-years, 55 (12%) patients received CLL therapy, and 56 (12%) patients had an infection. The 2-year composite endpoint was observed in 94 (21%) patients. The ROC-AUC was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.80) for CLL-TIM, 0.69 for CLL-IPI (95% CI 0.63-0.75, p=0.11 compared to CLL-TIM) , and 0.68 for IPS-E (95% CI 0.62-0.74, p=0.02 compared to CLL-TIM). We also evaluated the ROC-AUC using all the prognostic models for each individual endpoints. The corresponding ROC-AUC for TTFT at 2 years were 0.79, 0.74, and 0.76 for CLL-TIM, CLL-IPI, and IPS-E, respectively; and for infection at 2 years were 0.68, 0.57, and 0.52, respectively. This is the first validation of the CLL-TIM in a US-based cohort of newly diagnosed CLL patients. Although the CLL-TIM model exceeded the minimally meaningful discrimination threshold (AUC >0.7) for individual patient-level risk prediction, there was no statistical difference in AUC between CLL-TIM and CLL-IPI, suggesting either model can predict the composite endpoint at 2 years. Most of the observed discrimination was driven by prediction of TTFT rather than infection, underscoring the need to develop more infection-specific risk models for newly diagnosed CLL. Citation Format: Raphael Mwangi, Tait D. Shanafelt, Soren Basnet, Emily L. West, Owen Keegan, Timothy G. Call, Yao Yuan, Bryan Alexis Vallejo, Paul J. Hampel, Lindsey E. Roeker, Yucai Wang, Saad J. Kenderian, Sara J. Achenbach, Aaron D. Norman, Kari G. Rabe, Neil E. Kay, James R. Cerhan, Curtis A. Hanson, Susan L. Slager, Sameer A. Parikh. Validation of the CLL treatment infection model (CLL-TIM) in patients with newly diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 4228.

Abstract Background: Hypogammaglobulinemia at the time of CLL diagnosis predicts shorter time to first therapy (TTFT). However, the depth of immunoparesis and its impact on TTFT in newly diagnosed MBL/CLL remains unexplored. Methods: We identified previously untreated MBL/CLL patients from Mayo Clinic CLL Database (2000-2024) who had serum immunoglobulin (Ig; IgG, IgM and IgA) and monoclonal protein assessed within 1 year of diagnosis. Immunoparesis was evaluated: a) qualitatively by classifying patients into preserved, partial and full Ig suppression, based on the number of suppressed Igs; and b) quantitatively by calculating the average relative difference (ARD), defined as the mean percentage below normal for all Igs. For both methods, only uninvolved Igs were considered for those with monoclonal protein. TTFT was estimated by Kaplan-Meier with competing risk of death. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among 1420 patients, median age at diagnosis was 65 (range 28-96); 954 (67%) were male; 493 (44.8%) had unmutated IGHV, and 86 (6.8%) had TP53 disruption. The median [range, mg/dL] serum IgG, IgA, and IgM were 889 [111-5290], 132 [1-4880], and 49 [4-9480]. Low IgG was present in 472 (33.2%), low IgA in 223 (16.4%), and low IgM in 530 (37.3%) patients. An M-spike was detected in 122 (8.6%) patients; distribution was: IgG (73), IgM (30), IgA (6), or multiple (13). By qualitative assessment, preserved Ig were seen in 664 (46.8%), partial Ig suppression in 604 (42.5%), and full suppression in 152 (10.7%) patients. By quantitative assessment, median ARD was 0.6 (-0.8 to 11.3); 280 (19.7%) patients had negative ARD, and 1140 (80.3%) had positive ARD. In those with negative ARD, 128 (9%) had partial Ig suppression and 152 (10.7%) had full Ig suppression; in those with positive ARD, 664 (46.8%) had preserved Ig and 476 (33.5%) had partial Ig suppression. Median follow-up was 14.7 years; 510 patients progressed requiring therapy. Median TTFT was 9.6 years. Median TTFT for patients with preserved Ig was 12.6 years, 8.0 years for partial Ig suppression (HR 1.4, 95%CI 1.1-1.7), and 1.8 years for full Ig suppression (HR 3.1, 95%CI 2.4-4.0). The median TTFT was 2.3 and 12.1 years for patients with negative vs positive ARD; negative ARD was associated with shorter TTFT (HR 2.4, 95%CI 2.0-2.9). After adjusting for sex and CLL-International Prognostic Index (CLL-IPI) score, full Ig suppression (HR 2.9, 95%CI 2.2-3.9) and partial Ig suppression (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-2.0) were associated with shorter TTFT (model 1, c-stat 0.77); and negative ARD (HR 2.4, 95%CI 2.0-2.9) was associated with shorter TTFT (model 2, c-stat 0.76). Negative ARD identified an additional 9% of patients at higher risk for shorter TTFT beyond full Ig suppression. Conclusions: The depth of immunoparesis at diagnosis predicts TTFT and enhances risk stratification in newly diagnosed MBL/CLL. Citation Format: Yuan Yao, Kari G. Rabe, Eli Muchtar, Paul Hampel, Yucai Wang, Lindsey Roeker, Saad Kenderian, Amber Koehler, Catherine Wagner, Amy Behnken, Jose F. Leis, Mazie Tsang, Talal Hilal, Ricardo Daniel Parrondo, Susan M. Schwager, Min Shi, Curtis A. Hanson, Celine M. Vachon, Shaji Kunnathu Kumar, Esteban Braggio, Neil E. Kay, Susan Slager, Sameer A. Parikh. Depth of immunoparesis predicts time to first therapy in newly diagnosed monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis and chronic lymphocytic leukemia [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 1191.