Brown, M. Catherine

Abstract Background: Somatic EGFR mutations define a subset of non–small cell lung cancers (NSCLC) that have clinical impact on NSCLC risk and outcome. However, EGFR-mutation-status is often missing in epidemiologic datasets. We developed and tested pragmatic approaches to account for EGFR-mutation-status based on variables commonly included in epidemiologic datasets and evaluated the clinical utility of these approaches. Methods: Through analysis of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO) epidemiologic datasets, we developed a regression model for EGFR-status; we then applied a clinical-restriction approach using the optimal cut-point, and a second epidemiologic, multiple imputation approach to ILCCO survival analyses that did and did not account for EGFR-status. Results: Of 35,356 ILCCO patients with NSCLC, EGFR-mutation-status was available in 4,231 patients. A model regressing known EGFR-mutation-status on clinical and demographic variables achieved a concordance index of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74–0.77) in the training and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74–0.79) in the testing dataset. At an optimal cut-point of probability-score = 0.335, sensitivity = 69% and specificity = 72.5% for determining EGFR-wildtype status. In both restriction-based and imputation-based regression analyses of the individual roles of BMI on overall survival of patients with NSCLC, similar results were observed between overall and EGFR-mutation-negative cohort analyses of patients of all ancestries. However, our approach identified some differences: EGFR-mutated Asian patients did not incur a survival benefit from being obese, as observed in EGFR-wildtype Asian patients. Conclusions: We introduce a pragmatic method to evaluate the potential impact of EGFR-status on epidemiological analyses of NSCLC. Impact: The proposed method is generalizable in the common occurrence in which EGFR-status data are missing.

1562 Background: In Caucasian-predominant populations, overweight or obese NSCLC pts (BMI≥25-kg/m2) have better prognosis while underweight (BMI≤18.5-kg/m2) pts have a worse prognosis. A large pooled sample allowed us to evaluate the role of ethnicity in this BMI-NSCLC OS relationship. Methods: Using individual data, survival analysis was performed on 15 ILCCO studies, assessing the interactions between ethnicity and BMI on overall survival (OS). Adjusted Hazard Ratios (aHR) from Cox models and adjusted penalized smoothing spline plots were generated. Results: Among 13416 (77%) Caucasian, 2975 (17%) Asian, and 935 (5%) Black NSCLC pts analyzed, we confirmed that for all pts, being underweight at NSCLC diagnosis was associated with worse OS (aHR=1.68, CI 1.5-1.8, p<0.001), while overweight/obese pts had improved survival (aHR 0.89, CI 0.8-0.9, p<0.001), when compared to pts with normal BMI. In general, Black pts had poorer OS than Caucasian pts (aHR 1.26 CI 1.1-1.4, p<0.001). However, the BMI-OS relationship differed according to ethnicity (BMI-ethnicity interaction, p=0.009): Caucasian underweight pts had poorer OS (aHR 1.67, CI 1.5-1.8, P<0.001) while overweight/obese pts had improved OS (aHR 0.89, CI 0.8-0.9, P<0.001). In Asian pts, these two associations were aHR 1.15, CI 0.8-1.5, P=0.33, and aHR 0.91, CI 0.7-1.1, P=0.32, respectively. In Black pts, these two associations were aHR 1.06, CI 0.7-1.5, p=0.73 and 0.75, CI 0.6-0.8 p<0.001, respectively. For overweight/obese patients, as BMI rises from 25-kg/m2 through 45-kg/m2, the prognosis worsens for Caucasian pts, remains stable for Asian pts, but improves for Black pts. Conclusions: InCaucasian pts, being underweight had a greater negative impact on OS than for Asian or Black pts, while being obese had a greater beneficial impact in Blacks than in other ethnic groups. These ethnic differences likely reflect genetically-informed muscle/adipose tissue distributions, where Black pts may have less sarcopenic obesity than other ethnicities. In future prognostic studies, BMI relationships must account for ethnic differences.