Machine Learning Models Using Hospital Admission Characteristics Do Not Optimally Predict Nosocomial Infection Development in a Global Cirrhosis Cohort
INTRODUCTION: Nosocomial infections (NIs) in cirrhosis are associated with high mortality but could be preventable. Logistic regression (LR) models have failed to identify high-risk patients. We aimed to develop machine learning (ML) models to predict NI. METHODS: The CLEARED consortium consists of prospectively enrolled cirrhosis inpatients from >120 centers. Using day-of-admission clinical data, 3 ML approaches (random forest [RF], extreme gradient boosting, and neural networks [NNs]) were used to predict NI. Data were split 80:20 for training and testing stratified by the outcome. Models were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: In total, 8,263 patients (55.90 ± 13.34 years; 64.1% men) from 127 centers in 37 countries were included. NI developed in 869 (10.5%), a median of 6 (4–11) days of postadmission. Major NIs were respiratory (29.6%) and urinary tract infection (15.7%), and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (13.5%). NIs occurred more frequently in patients from low/low-middle income countries and those with severe liver disease, alcohol etiology, and admission infections. NIs were associated with inpatient mortality (31.9% vs 8.1%, P < 0.001) and liver transplantation (4.8% vs 1.9%, P < 0.001). Although the RF model (AUC 0.69) showed good calibration (Brier score 0.09), outperforming extreme gradient boosting, neural network, and LR models (AUC 0.66 for all; LR comparison P = 0.043), no model achieved AUC ≥0.80 for clinical utility. At 10% predicted probability threshold, the RF model demonstrated only 75.4% sensitivity, 52.9% specificity, and 15.9% positive predictive value (PPV). DISCUSSION: NIs cannot be accurately predicted from day-of-admission data using ML models, even in a large, prospective, global cirrhosis cohort. Every hospitalized patient with cirrhosis should receive protocolized infection control measures.
Global Epidemiology and Geographic Variations of Pediatric-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990 to 2019
Abstract Background An increasing incidence of pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (PIBD) has been reported in many countries. However, the global burden and distribution of this disease remain less understood. We aimed to examine the global epidemiology and trends of PIBD from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study, covering 204 countries, were analyzed. We assessed key measures like incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) using linear regression to calculate annual percentage changes and assess trends. Results Between 1990 and 2019, the PIBD incidence rate increased and the DALY rate and mortality rate declined. The incidence rate was notably elevated in the high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, reaching 6.3 per 100 000 person-years, corresponding to 13 914 new cases in 2019. Incidence and prevalence of PIBD positively correlated with the SDI, while higher death and DALY burdens were observed in lower-SDI countries. In 2019, the top 5 countries with the highest PIBD incidence rates were Canada (19.9 per 100 000 population), Denmark (12.4 per 100 000 population), Hungary (8.5 per 100 000 population), Austria (8.1 per 100 000 population), and the United States (7.4 per 100 000 population). Several countries experienced significant increases in incidence rates from 1990 to 2019, led by Taiwan (annual percent change 4.2%), followed by China (2.8%), Japan (2.1%), Australia (1.8%), and Hungary (1.6%). Discussion PIBD incidence has significantly increased since 1990. High-SDI countries face higher incidence, while lower-SDI countries experience higher mortality and DALY burdens. The study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and research to address this emerging public health issue.
The voltage-gated proton channel Hv1 contributes to neuronal injury and motor deficits in a mouse model of spinal cord injury
Abstract Traumatic injury to the spinal cord initiates a series of pathological cellular processes that exacerbate tissue damage at and beyond the original site of injury. This secondary damage includes oxidative stress and inflammatory cascades that can lead to further neuronal loss and motor deficits. Microglial activation is an essential component of these secondary signaling cascades. The voltage-gated proton channel, Hv1, functionally expressed in microglia has been implicated in microglia polarization and oxidative stress in ischemic stroke. Here, we investigate whether Hv1 mediates microglial/macrophage activation and aggravates secondary damage following spinal cord injury (SCI). Following contusion SCI, wild-type (WT) mice showed significant tissue damage, white matter damage and impaired motor recovery. However, mice lacking Hv1 (Hv1-/-) showed significant white matter sparing and improved motor recovery. The improved motor recovery in Hv1-/- mice was associated with decreased interleukin-1β, reactive oxygen/ nitrogen species production and reduced neuronal loss. Further, deficiency of Hv1 directly influenced microglia activation as noted by decrease in microglia numbers, soma size and reduced outward rectifier K+ current density in Hv1-/- mice compared to WT mice at 7 d following SCI. Our results therefore implicate that Hv1 may be a promising potential therapeutic target to alleviate secondary damage following SCI caused by microglia/macrophage activation.
The voltage-gated proton channel Hv1 contributes to neuronal injury and motor deficits in a mouse model of spinal cord injury
Abstract Traumatic injury to the spinal cord initiates a series of pathological cellular processes that exacerbate tissue damage at and beyond the original site of injury. This secondary damage includes oxidative stress and inflammatory cascades that can lead to further neuronal loss and motor deficits. Microglial activation is an essential component of these secondary signaling cascades. The voltage-gated proton channel, Hv1, functionally expressed in microglia has been implicated in microglia polarization and oxidative stress in ischemic stroke. Here, we investigate whether Hv1 mediates microglial/macrophage activation and aggravates secondary damage following spinal cord injury (SCI). Following contusion SCI, wild-type (WT) mice showed significant tissue damage, white matter damage and impaired motor recovery. However, mice lacking Hv1 (Hv1-/-) showed significant white matter sparing and improved motor recovery. The improved motor recovery in Hv1-/- mice was associated with decreased interleukin-1β, reactive oxygen/ nitrogen species production and reduced neuronal loss. Further, deficiency of Hv1 directly influenced microglia activation as noted by decrease in microglia numbers, soma size and reduced outward rectifier K+ current density in Hv1-/- mice compared to WT mice at 7d following SCI. Our results therefore implicate that Hv1 may be a promising potential therapeutic target to alleviate secondary damage following SCI caused by microglia/macrophage activation.
Abstract B20: GLI1 overexpression contributes to HCC recurrence partly through the induction of SNAI1-induced epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition
Abstract Background/Aim: Glioma-associated oncogene 1 (GLI1) is one of the most important transcription factors in the hedgehog (Hh) signaling pathway and has been shown to be involved in embryonic development and tumor progression. The epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) is an important cellular program which contributes to invasion and metastasis of cancer. We have previously shown that GLI1 may promote HCC metastasis via EMT. Here, we demonstrate that GLI1 upregulates SNAI1 expression, induces EMT, and promotes HCC recurrence in vivo and in vitro. Methods: Gli1 mRNA was assessed in 139 HCCs by microarray and its correlation with HCC recurrence and SNAI1 mRNA expression was analyzed. In vitro, the mRNA and protein expression of GLI1 was measured in Gli1-negative Huh7 cells transfected with GU1 and GU1-expressing SNU398 cells transfected with antisense oligonucleotides targeting GU1 (GLI1 ASO). GLI1-dependent transcriptional activity was assessed with GU reporter luciferase assay and electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA). The interaction between Gli1, SNAI1 and EMT was assessed by real-time PCR, Western immunoblotting and immunofluorescence. Effects of GLI1 on proliferation, viability, migration, and invasion of tumor cells were also assessed. Results: GLI1 mRNA was detected in 74 HCC tumors and found to be upregulated in 43 (58.1 %) HCCs. Increased Gli1 mRNA in HCCs was associated with tumor recurrence after resection. There was a positive correlation between GLI1 and SNAI1 mRNA expression. In HCC cells, GLI1 overexpression increased Gli1-dependent transcriptional activity, proliferation, viability, migration, and invasion of tumor cells. GU1 also increased SNAI1 expression and induced the EMT. Opposite effects were observed in GU1-knockdown models. Conclusion: Together, these findings identify a novel mechanism mediating HCC recurrence that includes GLI1-mediated activation of EMT via upregulation of SNAI1. Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Second AACR International Conference on Frontiers in Basic Cancer Research; 2011 Sep 14-18; San Francisco, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2011;71(18 Suppl):Abstract nr B20.
Laparoscopic Splenectomy and Esophagogastric Devascularization Is a Safe, Effective, Minimally Invasive Alternative for the Treatment of Portal Hypertension With Refractory Variceal Bleeding
Open splenectomy and esophagogastric devascularization (OSED) is a typical surgery for portal hypertension. Because of the high morbidity associated with it, it is desirable to develop a minimally invasive alternative. To investigate the safety and effect of laparoscopic splenectomy and esophagogastric devascularization (LSED), we performed LSED for 24 patients suffering from portal hypertension with refractory variceal bleeding while conducting OSED for 30 patients. The perioperative data and follow-up results were analyzed. Operation times were similar in both groups. Less intraoperative blood and faster return of gastrointestinal function were found in the LSED group. The LSED group had lower levels of alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and total bilirubin after surgery. In both groups, the levels of platelet count, white blood cell count, or hemoglobin were increased after operation dramatically. During the follow-up period (range = 3-36 months), no patient had recurrent hypersplenism or variceal bleeding. Hence, LSED is a safe and minimally invasive intervention for portal hypertension with refractory variceal bleeding.