Maurer, Matthew J.

Abstract The prognostic relevance of diagnosis to treatment interval (DTI) in patients with newly diagnosed mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is unknown. Hence, we sought to evaluate the impact of DTI on outcomes in MCL using 3 large datasets (1) the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource, (2) patients enrolled in the ALL Age Asthma Cohort/CALGB 50403, and (3) a multisitecohort of patients with MCL. Patients were a priori divided into 2 groups, 0 to 14 days (short DTI) and 15 to 60 days (long DTI). The patients in whom observation was deemed appropriate were excluded. One thousand ninety-seven patients newly diagnosed with MCL and available DTI were included in the study. The majority (73%) had long DTI (n=797). Patients with short DTI had worse eastern cooperative oncology group performance status (ECOG PS ≥2), higher lactate dehydrogenase, bone marrow involvement, more frequent B symptoms, higher MCL International Prognostic Index (MIPI ≥6.2), and were less likely to receive intensive induction therapy than long DTI group. The median progression-free survival (2.5 years vs 4.8 years, p<0.0001) and overall survival (7.8 years vs. 11.8 years, p<0.0001) were significantly inferior in the short DTI group than the long DTI cohort and remained significant for progression-free survival and overall survival in multivariable analysis. We show that the DTI is an important prognostic factor in patients newly diagnosed with MCL and is strongly associated with adverse clinical factors and poor outcomes. DTI should be reported in all the patients newly diagnosed with MCL who are enrolling in clinical trials and steps must be taken to ensure selection bias is avoided.

PURPOSE The International Prognostic Score (IPS) has been used in classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) for 25 years. However, analyses have documented suboptimal performance of the IPS among contemporarily treated patients. Harnessing multisource individual patient data from the Hodgkin Lymphoma International Study for Individual Care consortium, we developed and validated a modern clinical prediction model. METHODS Model development via Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis guidelines was performed on 4,022 patients with newly diagnosed advanced-stage adult cHL from eight international phase III clinical trials, conducted from 1996 to 2014. External validation was performed on 1,431 contemporaneously treated patients from four real-world cHL registries. To consider association over a full range of continuous variables, we evaluated piecewise linear splines for potential nonlinear relationships. Five-year progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS The median age in the development cohort was 33 (18-65) years; nodular sclerosis was the most common histology. Kaplan-Meier estimators were 0.77 for 5-year PFS and 0.92 for 5-year OS. Significant predictor variables included age, sex, stage, bulk, absolute lymphocyte count, hemoglobin, and albumin, with slight variation for PFS versus OS. Moreover, age and absolute lymphocyte count yielded nonlinear relationships with outcomes. Optimism-corrected c-statistics in the development model for 5-year PFS and OS were 0.590 and 0.720, respectively. There was good discrimination and calibration in external validation and consistent performance in internal-external validation. Compared with the IPS, there was superior discrimination for OS and enhanced calibration for PFS and OS. CONCLUSION We rigorously developed and externally validated a clinical prediction model in > 5,000 patients with advanced-stage cHL. Furthermore, we identified several novel nonlinear relationships and improved the prediction of patient outcomes. An online calculator was created for individualized point-of-care use.