Link, Brian K.

Abstract Background: Although progression-free survival (PFS) in early-stage (ES) classic Hodgkin Lymphoma (cHL) is high, there remains a subset of patients (pts) at higher risk of worse outcomes, particularly in those with unfavorable risk disease. Leveraging pt-level data from within the HoLISTIC (Hodgkin Lymphoma International STudy for Individual Care) Consortium, the E-HIPI was developed in clinical trial pts and validated in real-world registry pts to predict 2-year (y) PFS (Rodday. NEJM Evidence 2025). Continuous, objective, and readily measurable pre-treatment variables were considered, with sex, maximum tumor diameter, albumin, and hemoglobin included as significant predictors. Using the E-HIPI, interactive calculators for pt risk, comparison, and stratification were created (https://rtools.mayo.edu/holistic_ehipi/). Although the E-HIPI was developed and validated in both unfavorable and favorable ES cHL pts, the clinical predictors are primarily markers of unfavorable disease. In the development and initial validation cohorts, 2y PFS was 93.7% and 90.3%, respectively, the C-statistic was 0.63 in both cohorts, calibration was strong with slight underprediction of events in the validation cohort, and the E-HIPI outperformed the historic binary classification of patients as favorable or unfavorable using EORTC criteria. However, since pts in the original E-HIPI development and validation were primarily treated with ABVD chemotherapy protocols, additional validation is needed, particularly among pts with unfavorable ES cHL who were treated initially with more intensive chemotherapeutic platforms (e.g., BEACOPP-based). Thus, we conducted an external validation of the E-HIPI in pts treated on recent unfavorable ES cHL GHSG trials. Methods: The validation cohort included 2367 adults (ages 18 to 60y) with newly-diagnosed unfavorable cHL from randomized phase 3 trials conducted by the GHSG (HD14 von Tresckow. JCO 2012; and HD17 Borchmann. Lancet 2021). We calculated the predicted probability of 2y PFS events based on the E-HIPI model equation (scale 1-100%). Model performance was assessed using discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, which is the model's ability to separate high and low risk pts, was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Calibration, which is the model's ability to accurately predict absolute risk, was assessed by comparing observed and predicted probabilities of 2y PFS events within quintiles of predicted probabilities and estimating calibration-in-the-large (predicted minus observed event rate) and the calibration slope. Results: For pts treated on unfavorable GHSG trials, mean age was 33y, 95% had stage II disease, mean baseline E-HIPI score (i.e., predicted 2y PFS event rate) was 6.0% (SD=2.3%), and the observed 2y PFS rate was 96.2% (95%CI: 95.4-97.0%). The C-statistic was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.59-0.70), calibration-in-the-large was 0.02, and the calibration slope was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.52, 1.64). Within the lowest risk E-HIPI quintile, the observed 2y PFS event rate was 1.6%, compared with 6.1% in the highest risk quintile. Conclusions: In external validation of the recently published E-HIPI in pts with cHL treated on unfavorable GHSG trials using more intensive BEACOPP-based protocols, discrimination was similar to the original development and validation cohorts. Collectively, the E-HIPI is a treatment-agnostic prediction tool across varied treatment regimens for unfavorable ES cHL pts. Better 2y PFS in the GHSG trials than in the E-HIPI development and initial validation cohorts may have contributed to mild misclassification, likely reflecting differences in treatment regimens. This may be resolved with recalibration or incorporating granular treatment variables into future models. Additional research is needed to understand E-HIPI performance in pts with favorable disease who have even lower event rates as well as to more fully predict individualized pt outcomes across varied chemotherapy platforms and radiation received for all ES cHL pts.

Abstract Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most common indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Although patients with FL have high response rates to therapy, most develop increasingly resistant disease. In addition, transformation into an aggressive lymphoma is associated with unfavorable outcomes. Many novel agents are under investigation, and early clinical data are encouraging. Aligning treatment with the underlying tumor biology and sequencing of therapies remain key clinical challenges. At the Lymphoma Research Foundation’s biannual 2024 Follicular Lymphoma Scientific Workshop, experts convened to discuss the role of chemotherapy in the context of new therapies, the impact of early progression on treatment sequencing, novel end points in clinical trials, disease biology and the tumor microenvironment, and new treatments on the horizon. This report focuses on updates in FL biology, first-line treatment, the role of progression of disease in 24 months, clinical trial design, and redefining cure in FL.

PURPOSE Although most patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) can expect an indolent course, progressive lymphoma remains the primary cause of death during the first decade after diagnosis. Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) of starting first-line (1L) immunochemotherapy defines a high-risk population with poor survival, but better risk stratification at diagnosis is needed. METHODS The FLIPI24 model was developed and internally validated to predict 24-month event rates using individual data from 4,485 patients treated with 1L immunochemotherapy from 10 observational cohorts of FL. Overall and cause-specific survival was further evaluated in FLIPI24 risk groups. External validation in the 1L immunochemotherapy setting was performed using the prospective observational Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) cohort (N = 565) and three randomized phase III trials (N = 3,192); extension to all patients with FL (any 1L therapy) was performed in the LEO cohort (N = 1,445) and its Molecular Epidemiology Resource subcohort (N = 1,074). RESULTS The FLIPI24 model uses age and four blood-based variables (hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, beta-2 microglobulin, and WBC count). FLIPI24 showed consistent performance across validation and extension data sets, which was superior to existing prognostic tools. Across the four external immunochemotherapy validation data sets, patients with high-risk FLIPI24 (23%-32% of patients) had significantly higher 24-month event rates (22%-35%) and inferior 5-year overall survival (77%-83%) compared with patients with low-risk FLIPI24 (29%-31% of patients, 24-month event rates: 10%-12%; 5-year OS: 96%-97%). Results were consistent when evaluating lymphoma-related death and when extended to all patients with FL. CONCLUSION The FLIPI24 model robustly stratifies, at diagnosis, patients with FL at increased risk of lymphoma-related death versus patients with very low lymphoma-related mortality during the first decade after diagnosis. FLIPI24 can be used to enrich future clinical trial designs in newly diagnosed FL.

ABSTRACT Newly diagnosed patients with non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) often have a history of other diseases, and these comorbidities can impact patient treatment and management options, as well as overall survival (OS). We developed the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) comorbidity index (LCI) as a sum of 10 comorbidities adapted from the Self‐Report‐Generated Charlson Comorbidity Index (SRG‐CCI) for use in the LEO cohort, a national prospective study of newly diagnosed NHL. Of the 5502 participants with self‐reported comorbidity data, 3107 (56.4%) were male and the mean age at diagnosis was 60.9 years (range, 18–99 years). The LCI ranged from 0 to 6, with 48.6% having 0, 30.2% having 1, 21.2% having 2 or more comorbidities. With a median follow‐up of 62.4 months among surviving participants, 2099 patients had an event and 1219 died. Continuous LCI similarly predicted both 1‐year mortality (c‐statistic = 0.654) and OS (c‐statistic = 0.655), while it showed a weaker but still statistically significant predictive ability for lymphoma‐specific (c‐statistics = 0.617) and event‐free (c‐statistic = 0.574) survival. Participants with 1 (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.05–1.39) and 2+ (HR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.56–2.08) comorbidities had inferior OS compared to those with no comorbidities after adjustment for age and sex (c‐statistic = 0.654), and performance strengthened after adjustment for the International Prognostic Index (c‐statistic = 0.672). LCI predicted OS most strongly in marginal zone (c‐statistics = 0.748) and weakest in T‐cell (c‐statistic = 0.579) lymphoma. The cumulative incidence of death due to lymphoma, lymphoma treatment, and other causes all increased with increasing comorbidities, with the greatest increase observed for death due to other causes. The LCI performs comparable to other published comorbidity indices, supporting its use in the LEO cohort to better model real‐world outcomes and more generally providing an approach to implementing comorbidity indices in cancer survivorship cohorts.

Abstract Although follicular lymphoma (FL) typically follows an indolent course, patients with FL who experience early events, such as transformation or progression, have increased risk of death related to lymphoma. The FL24Cx is an algorithm based on a 45-target gene expression profiling (GEP) assay, which was developed and trained using 265 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue samples on a reliable platform to predict, at the time of diagnosis, whether a patient will experience an event within 24 months. The modeling also confirmed and relied upon previously reported synergy between immune response (IR) gene expression signatures IR1 and IR2. Once locked, the 5-factor logistic regression FL24Cx model was independently validated in a retrospectively assessed cohort of 232 patients from 2 immunochemotherapy-treated arms of SWOG Cancer Research Network S0016 phase 3 clinical trial, in which it assigned 169 patients to the low-risk group with 29 events before 24 months (17.2%) and 63 patients to the high-risk group with 24 events before 24 months (38.1%). The relative risk of an event within 24 months after registration among patients who were classified into the high-risk group relative to patients who were classified into the low-risk group was 2.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.41 to 3.51). An up-front GEP biomarker, such as the FL24Cx, rigorously validated in a clinical laboratory and with a clinically relevant turnaround time, could identify and steer enrollment of patients at high risk for early events in clinical trials, thus enabling timely interpretation of such trials and increasing the pace of innovation.

Abstract Obesity has been associated with non‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), but the evidence is inconclusive. We examined the association between genetically determined adiposity and four common NHL subtypes: diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and marginal zone lymphoma, using eight genome‐wide association studies of European ancestry ( N = 10,629 cases, 9505 controls) and constructing polygenic scores for body mass index (BMI), waist‐to‐hip ratio (WHR), and waist‐to‐hip ratio adjusted for BMI (WHRadjBMI). Higher genetically determined BMI was associated with an increased risk of DLBCL [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.05–1.33, p = .005]. This finding was consistent with Mendelian randomization analyses, which demonstrated a similar increased risk of DLBCL with higher genetically determined BMI (OR per SD = 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02–1.23, p = .03). No significant associations were observed with other NHL subtypes. Our study demonstrates a positive link between a genetically determined BMI and an increased risk of DLBCL, providing additional support for increased adiposity as a risk factor for DLBCL.