O’Malley, A. James

Background— Observed rates of restenosis after drug-eluting stenting are low (<10%). Identification of a reliable and powerful angiographic end point will be useful in future trials. Methods and Results— Late loss (postprocedural minimum lumen diameter minus 8-month minimum lumen diameter) was measured in the angiographic cohorts of the SIRIUS (n=703) and E-SIRIUS (n=308) trials. Two techniques, the standard normal approximation and an optimized power transformation, were used to predict binary angiographic restenosis rates and compare them with observed restenosis rates. The mean in-stent late loss observed in the SIRIUS trial was 0.17±0.45 mm (sirolimus) versus 1.00±0.70 mm (control). If a normal distribution was assumed, late loss accurately estimated in-stent binary angiographic restenosis for the control arm (predicted 35.4% versus observed 35.4%) but underestimated it in the sirolimus arm (predicted 0.6% versus observed 3.2%). Power transformation improved the reliability of the estimate in the sirolimus arm (predicted 3.2% [CI 1.0% to 6.7%]) with similar improvements in the E-SIRIUS trial (predicted 4.0% [CI 1.2% to 7.0%] versus observed 3.9%). In the sirolimus-eluting stent arm, in-stent late loss correlated better with target-lesion revascularization than in-segment late loss (c-statistic=0.915 versus 0.665). Conclusions— Because distributions of late loss with a low mean are right-skewed, the use of a transformation improves the accuracy of predicting low binary restenosis rates. Late loss is monotonically correlated with the probability of restenosis and yields a more efficient estimate of the restenosis process in the era of lower binary restenosis rates.