Lutsey, Pamela L.

Introduction: We recently reported that abnormal P-wave indices (PWI)—ECG markers of atrial cardiomyopathy (AC)—are associated with an increased risk of dementia, independent of atrial fibrillation (AF) and clinical ischemic stroke. The mechanisms, however, remain unclear, but may include silent ischemia. Hypothesis: Abnormal PWI are associated with higher prevalence of cortical infarcts on MRI, suggesting cardioembolism as a potential mechanism. Methods: ARIC-NCS participants (mean age, 72.2±5.3 years; 60% women; 29% black) who underwent 3T brain MRI scans in 2011-2013 were included. Abnormal PWI included P-wave terminal force in lead V1 [(PTFV1) defined as ≥4000 μV*ms] and P-wave duration [(PWD) defined as >120 ms], which were measured from standard 12-lead ECGs. Brain MRI outcomes included cortical infarcts, cerebral microbleeds (CMB), and markers of small vessel disease [white matter hyperintensities (WMH) and lacunar infarcts]. We used weighted multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses. Results: Of the 1,850 participants, 464 had abnormal PTFV1 and 415 had prolonged PWD. After multivariable adjustment including AF, abnormal PTFV1 and PWD were significantly associated with 26-44% increased odds of cortical and lacunar infarcts (Table) . Although PWD was associated with CMB in Model 1, the association was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment. Finally, abnormal PWIs were not associated with WMH after adjusting for stroke and AF (P >0.5). Conclusions: Abnormal PWI are associated with higher prevalence of cortical infarcts, suggesting cardioembolism with silent ischemia as a possible mechanism underlying the association of AC with dementia. More research is needed to evaluate other mechanisms such as cerebral small vessel disease.

Background The impact of the new 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) hypertension guideline on dementia risk at the population level has not been evaluated. Methods and Results We studied dementia‐free participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) Study cohort in 1987 to 1989. Hypertension was defined by 2003 Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure and 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines using blood pressure measured at baseline. Dementia was defined using adjudicated consensus diagnoses, informant telephone interviews, and discharge codes from hospitalizations and death certificates. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for dementia and 95% CIs by hypertension categories, adjusting for confounders. Population attributable fraction of dementia was calculated by hypertension categories. Among 13 971 participants followed up for a median of 23 years, 1381 dementia cases were identified. Prevalence of hypertension was 34% and 48%, according to the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure and ACC/AHA criteria, respectively. HRs (95% CIs) compared with normal blood pressure, according to ACC/AHA categories, were 1.35 (1.12–1.61) for elevated blood pressure, 1.28 (1.07–1.52) for hypertension stage 1, and 1.36 (1.18–1.57) for hypertension stage 2. Population attributable fractions (95% CIs) of dementia from blood pressure categories were 3% (1%–5%), 3% (1%–5%), and 9% (4%–14%), respectively. Population attributable fractions (95% CIs) using the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure categories were 6% (3%–9%) for prehypertension, 0% (−2% to 2%) for hypertension stage 1, and 9% (5%–13%) for hypertension stage 2. Conclusions Risk of dementia increased across hypertension categories defined by ACC/AHA guidelines. The population impact on dementia incidence using ACC/AHA categories was similar to the impact of the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure.

Background Polypharmacy is highly prevalent in elderly people with chronic conditions, including atrial fibrillation ( AF ). The impact of polypharmacy on adverse outcomes and on treatment effectiveness in elderly patients with AF remains unaddressed. Methods and Results We studied 338 810 AF patients ≥75 years of age enrolled in the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental database in 2007–2015. Polypharmacy was defined as ≥5 active prescriptions at AF diagnosis (defined by the presence of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ ICD‐9‐CM ] codes) based on outpatient pharmacy claims. AF treatments (oral anticoagulation, rhythm and rate control) and cardiovascular end points (ischemic stroke, bleeding, heart failure) were defined based on inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy claims. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate associations of polypharmacy with cardiovascular end points and the interaction between polypharmacy and AF treatments in relation to cardiovascular end points. Prevalence of polypharmacy was 52%. Patients with polypharmacy had increased risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio [ HR ], 1.16; 95% CI, 1.12–1.20) and heart failure ( HR , 1.33; 95% CI , 1.29–1.36) but not ischemic stroke ( HR , 0.96; 95% CI , 0.92–1.00), compared with those not receiving polypharmacy. Polypharmacy status did not consistently modify the effectiveness of oral anticoagulants. Rhythm control (versus rate control) was more effective in preventing heart failure hospitalization in patients not receiving polypharmacy ( HR , 0.87; 95% CI , 0.76–0.99) than among those with polypharmacy ( HR , 0.98; 95% CI , 0.91–1.07; P =0.02 for interaction). Conclusion Polypharmacy is common among patients ≥75 with AF , is associated with adverse outcomes, and may modify the effectiveness of AF treatments. Optimizing management of polypharmacy in AF patients ≥75 may lead to improved outcomes.

Background Social determinants of health are relevant to cardiovascular outcomes but have had limited examination in atrial fibrillation (AF). Objectives The purpose of this study was to examine the association of annual household income and cardiovascular outcomes in individuals with AF. Methods We analysed administrative claims for individuals with AF from 2009 to 2015 captured by a health claims database. We categorised estimates of annual household income as <$40 000; $40–$59 999; $60–$74 999; $75–$99 999; and ≥$100 000. Covariates included demographics, education, cardiovascular disease risk factors, comorbid conditions and anticoagulation. We examined event rates by income category and in multivariable-adjusted models in reference to the highest income category (≥$100 000). Results Our analysis included 336 736 individuals (age 72.7±11.9 years; 44.5% women; 82.6% white, 8.4% black, 7.0% Hispanic and 2.1% Asian) with AF followed for median (25th and 75th percentile) of 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 3.0) years. We observed an inverse association between income and heart failure and myocardial infarction (MI) with evidence of progressive risk across decreased income categories. Individuals with household income <$40 000 had the greatest risk for heart failure (HR 1.17; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.30) and MI (HR 1.18; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.41) compared with those with income ≥$100 000. Conclusions We identified an association between lower household income and adverse outcomes in a large cohort of individuals with AF. Our findings support consideration of income in the evaluation of cardiovascular risk in individuals with AF.

Background: Polypharmacy is highly prevalent in elderly individuals with chronic conditions, including atrial fibrillation (AF). The impact of polypharmacy on adverse outcomes and on treatment effectiveness in elderly AF patients remains unaddressed. Methods: We studied 338,810 AF patients ≥75 years of age with 1,761,660 active prescriptions [mean (SD), 5.1 (3.8) per patient] enrolled in the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental database in 2007-2015. Polypharmacy was defined as ≥5 active prescriptions at AF diagnosis based on outpatient pharmacy claims. AF treatments (oral anticoagulation, rhythm and rate control) and cardiovascular endpoints (ischemic stroke, bleeding, heart failure) were defined based on inpatient, outpatient and pharmacy claims. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate associations of polypharmacy with cardiovascular endpoints and the interaction between polypharmacy and AF treatments in relation to cardiovascular endpoints. Results: Prevalence of polypharmacy was 52% (176,007 of 338,810). Patients with polypharmacy had increased risk of major bleeding [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12, 1.20] and heart failure (HR 1.33, 95%CI 1.29, 1.36), but not of ischemic stroke (HR 0.96, 95%CI 0.92, 1.00), compared to those not with polypharmacy (Table). Polypharmacy status did not consistently modify the effectiveness of oral anticoagulants. However, rhythm control (vs. rate control) was more effective in preventing heart failure hospitalization in patients not with polypharmacy (HR 0.87, 95%CI 0.76, 0.99) than among those with polypharmacy (HR 0.98, 95%CI 0.91, 1.07, p for interaction = 0.02). Conclusion: Polypharmacy is frequent among elderly patients with AF, associated with adverse outcomes, and potentially affecting the effectiveness of AF treatments. Optimizing management of polypharmacy in elderly AF patients may lead to improved outcomes.

Introduction: Women with atrial fibrillation (AF) experience greater symptomatology, worse quality of life, and have a higher risk of stroke as compared to men, but are less likely to receive rhythm control for the treatment of AF. Whether these differences exist in elderly patients with AF, and whether sex modifies the effectiveness of rhythm versus rate control therapy has not been assessed. Methods: We studied 135,850 men and 139,767 women 75 years or older diagnosed with AF in the MarketScan Medicare database between 2007-2015. Rate control was defined as use of rate control medication or atrioventricular node ablation. Rhythm control was defined by use of anti-arrhythmics, catheter ablation or cardioversion. Participants on both rate and rhythm were coded under rhythm control. We used multivariable logistic and Cox regression models to estimate 1) the association of sex and treatment strategy (within 30-day post AF diagnosis and entire follow-up) and, 2) the association of treatment strategy with incident heart failure, stroke and major bleeding. Results: Men were on average (SD) 82.5 (5.2) years old and women 83.8 (5.6) years, respectively. Women were less likely to receive rhythm control treatment as compared to men in the 30-day post AF diagnosis period (22% vs 27%), (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.88, 0.94) and over the entire duration of follow-up (28% vs 32%) (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.90, 0.96). Rhythm (vs. rate) control was associated with a higher risk of heart failure in women [HR 1.41, 95% CI 1.34, 1.49] than in men [HR, 1.21 95% CI 1.15, 1.28] (p for multiplicative interaction < 0.001, Table ). Sex did not modify associations between treatment and incident stroke or major bleeding events. Conclusion: Women aged 75 years and older were less likely to be prescribed rhythm control as compared to men, and experienced higher risk of heart failure than men when receiving rhythm (vs rate) control. Future studies will need to delve into the mechanisms underlying these differences.

Background: Although associations between hypertension in mid-life and the development of dementia and cognitive decline have been established, the impact of the new 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines on dementia risk at the population level has not been evaluated. Objectives: To assess the association of hypertension categories with the risk of incident dementia and to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF) for dementia from hypertension categories according to the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines, and compare these associations with hypertension defined according to JNC7. Methods: We studied dementia-free participants recruited to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort in 1987-89. Hypertension was defined by 2003 JNC7 and 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines using blood pressure measured at baseline; participants using antihypertensive medication were included in hypertension stage 2 for both sets of guidelines. Dementia was defined using adjudicated consensus diagnoses at visit 5 (2011-13), informant telephone interviews, and ICD-9 codes from hospitalizations and death certificates through 2013. Cox proportional hazards regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) by hypertension categories, adjusting for potential confounders, including sociodemographic, lifestyle and clinical variables. PAF of dementia by hypertension category was calculated using rate ratios from Poisson regression and the prevalence of the risk factor in the population. Results: Among 13,971 participants followed for a median of 23.0 years, 1381 cases of dementia were identified. Prevalence of elevated BP (systolic BP [SBP] 120-129 and diastolic BP [DBP] <80), hypertension stage 1 (SBP 130-139 or DBP 80-89) and hypertension stage 2 (SBP ≥140 or DPB ≥90) according to 2017 ACC/AHA categories was 13%, 15% and 44%, respectively. Corresponding HR (95%CI) compared to normal BP were 1.35 (95%CI 1.12, 1.61), 1.28 (1.07, 1.52) and 1.36 (1.18, 1.57), respectively. PAF (95%CI) of dementia from hypertension categories were 3% (1%, 5%), 3% (1%, 5%) and 9% (4%, 14%). PAF using JNC7 categories were similar to 2017 ACC/AHA: 6% (3%, 9%) for prehypertension (SBP 120-129 or DBP 80-89), 0% (-2%, 2%) for hypertension stage 1 (SBP 140-159 or DBP 90-99), and 9% (5%, 13%) for hypertension stage 2 (SBP ≥160 or DBP ≥100). Conclusions: Risk of dementia was increased across categories defined by the new ACC/AHA hypertension guidelines. However, the population impact on dementia incidence using 2017 ACC/AHA was similar to the impact of JNC7. These results suggest that the new criteria for diagnosis of hypertension will not increase the number of persons in whom hypertension could be reasonably labeled as a risk for dementia.

Introduction: The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and multimorbidity increase with age; however, the burden imposed by concurrent conditions on outcomes is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to determine the effect of the number and type of comorbid conditions on outcomes in elderly individuals with incident AF. Methods: Patients with non-valvular AF 75 years and older were identified in the MarketScan Medicare Supplemental database from 2007-2015. Fourteen chronic conditions, defined by two occurrences of a diagnostic code from inpatient and outpatient claims prior to or at the time of AF diagnosis, were obtained and classified into two categories: cardiovascular (CV) or non-CV (listed in Table footnote). We used Cox regression to estimate the associations of the number and type of conditions with stroke, severe bleeding, and heart failure hospitalizations (HF). Results: Among 275,617 patients with AF (mean age 83 years, 51% women), 90% had at least one or more additional chronic conditions. The mean (SD) number of conditions per participant was 1.8 (0.9) for CV conditions and 2.1 (1.2) for non-CV conditions. Over a mean follow-up of 23 months, 7,814 strokes, 13,622 severe bleeds, and 19,252 HF events occurred. After adjustment for age, sex, the number of conditions in the other comorbidity group, an increase of one CV condition was associated with greater risk of stroke, severe bleeding, and HF (Table). In contrast, an increase in one non-CV condition was associated with a lower risk of stroke, and a small increase in bleeding and HF risk (Table). After further adjustments for frailty and medications, the strength of the associations within each group decreased across outcomes. Conclusion: CV conditions in AF patients 75 years and older are more strongly associated with stroke, HF, and bleeding than non-CV conditions. This underscores the effect of CV conditions on CV outcomes in a population in which multimorbidity is most common and health care management and delivery is complex.

Background: Multimorbidity is common in atrial fibrillation (AF); however, the impact of the number and type of comorbid conditions on death and hospitalizations is uncertain. Methods: The prevalence of 17 chronic conditions was obtained in 1430 patients with incident AF from 2000-2010 from Olmsted County, MN. Chronic conditions were ascertained electronically prior to AF and were classified into 3 groups: cardiovascular (CV), other physical, and mental. All hospitalizations and deaths were obtained through 12/31/2014. Associations of the number and type of condition and each individual condition with hospitalizations and death were determined using Andersen-Gill and Cox regression, respectively. Results: Among the 1430 patients with AF (median age 76 years, 48.6% men), the mean (SD) number of chronic conditions was 4.7 (2.7). A total of 4496 hospitalizations and 812 deaths occurred over a mean (SD) follow-up of 5.4 (4.1) years. An increase in the number of conditions of each type was associated with increased risks of death and hospitalizations (Table). Mental conditions (which included depression, anxiety, dementia, schizophrenia, and substance abuse) exhibited the strongest association with death, whereas other physical conditions exhibited the strongest association with hospitalizations. Individual predictors of death included heart failure (HF), hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), depression, dementia, and substance abuse. Predictors of hospitalizations included HF, coronary artery disease, diabetes, COPD, CKD, arthritis, osteoporosis, and substance abuse. Conclusions: Patients with AF have many comorbid conditions which are associated with death and hospitalizations. Although conditions of each type were associated with outcomes, mental conditions exhibited strongest association with death. These data highlight the importance of management of not only CV comorbidities but other physical and mental comorbidities in patients with AF.