Li, Jing

Abstract INTRODUCTION The quantification of intratumoral heterogeneity – through radiomics-based approaches - can help resolve the regionally distinct genetic drug targets that may co-exist within a single Glioblastoma (GBM) tumor. While this offers potential diagnostic value under the paradigm of individualized oncology, clinical decision-making must also consider the degree of uncertainty associated with each model. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a novel machine-learning (ML) algorithm, called Gaussian Process (GP) modeling, that can quantify the impact of multiple sources of uncertainty in ML model development and prediction accuracy, including variabilities in the copy number measurement, radiomics features, training sample characteristics, and training sample size. METHOD We collected 95 image-localized biopsies from 25 primary GBM patients. We coregistered stereotactic locations with preoperative multi-parametric MRI features (conventional MRI, DSC perfusion, Diffusion Tensor Imaging) to generate spatially matched pairs of MRI and copy number variants (CNV) for for each biopsy. We developed a Gaussian Process (GP) model to predict CNV for Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) based on MRI radiomic features in each patient. We used leave-one-patient-out cross validation to quantify prediction accuracy and model uncertainty. Spatial prediction and uncertainty (p-value) maps were overlaid to help visualize regional genetic variation of EGFR and uncertainty of the radiomic predictions. RESULT: The initial GP radiomics model for EGFR amplification (CNV > 3.5) produced a sensitivity of 0.8 and specificity of 0.8. Samples/regions associated with high uncertainty (p-value >0.05) correlated with either 1) extrapolation of radiomic features from the training set-defined feature space or 2) insufficient training samples in the feature space. CONCLUSION We present a ML-based model that quantifies spatial genetic heterogeneity in GBM, while also estimating model uncertainties that result from multi-source data variabilities. This approach lays the groundwork for prospective clinical integration of modeling-based diagnostic approaches in the paradigm of individualized medicine.

Abstract Glioblastomas (GBMs) are known to be complex tumors comprising multiple subpopulations of genetically-distinct cancer cells; it is thought that this genetic variation is a major factor in the lack of observed survival benefit of treatment regimes that target one of these subpopulations. The field of radiogenomics seeks to study correlations between MRI patterns and genetic features of GBM tumors. Spatial radiogenomic maps produced using machine-learning (ML) methods that are trained against information from image-localized patient biopsies identify regions where particular cancer sub-populations are predicted to occur within a GBM, thus non-invasively characterizing the regional genetic variability of these tumors. These tumor subpopulations may also interact with one another, in ways which may be of a competitive or cooperative nature to varying degrees. It is important to ascertain the nature of these interactions, as they may have implications for treatment response to targeted therapies, and characterization of the spatio-temporal dynamics of these co-evolving sub-populations will shed light on why some therapies fail. Here we combine mathematical modeling techniques and spatially-resolved radiogenomic maps to study the nature of these interactions between molecularly-distinct GBM subpopulations. We model the interactions between cell populations using a partial differential equation based formalism. The model is parameterized using radiogenomic ML maps from which we infer the nature of interactions between subpopulations. Furthermore, using maps as inputs, the model turns static maps into dynamic information, thus providing insight into how these subpopulations composing the tumor change over time and the effect this has on observed treatment response for individual patients.