Owen, Markus R.

Glioblastoma is the most common form of brain cancer in adults and remains one of the most lethal forms of cancer. Treating glioblastoma is uniquely challenging due to its aggressive nature and its critical location, the brain, which must remain largely undamaged. Due to these difficulties, there is a lack of effective treatment options. Computer models simulating tumors and their response to therapy, known as digital twins, provide a promising new strategy. These model systems are mathematical equations that capture the biological knowledge of how cells interact during tumor growth and in response to treatment. By solving these equations, we can create virtual patients that provide accurate predictions of real patients’ tumor progression. This approach has the potential to improve outcomes by designing therapies for the specific needs of each patient, moving beyond the limitations of the “one-size-fits-all” approach that is currently used.

Abstract Glioma stem cells (GSCs) are considered a major driver of glioblastoma (GBM) progression and are highly resistant to standard cytotoxic treatments. BMP4 has been shown to promote GSC differentiation, enhance radiosensitivity, slow tumor growth, and extend survival in animal models. Despite this promise, BMP4 has yet to achieve clinical impact, owing largely to heterogeneous and nonlinear responses across preclinical experimental systems. To elucidate how BMP4 could function as an effective targeted differentiation therapy in GBM, we develop a mathematical model that describes the growth of a GBM tumor via a hierarchy of GSCs, progenitor and terminally differentiated cells. We parameterize our model using new radiotherapy and proliferation assay data (with and without BMP4 exposure) from twelve patient-derived GSC lines. This integration of model and data allows us, for the first time, to quantitatively capture patient-specific heterogeneity in BMP4 sensitivity. We perform global sensitivity analysis on the model, identifying proliferation rate and GSC self-renewal sensitivity as key determinants of BMP4 efficacy. These parameters act as model-derived biomarkers that distinguish BMP4-responsive tumors from non-responsive ones. In an in silico analysis across a broad cohort of virtual patients, we find that continuous BMP4 delivery from surgical resection through radiotherapy consistently outperforms a single-dose strategy. Virtual clinical trials further show that, without stratification using these model-derived biomarkers, BMP4 yields little observable therapeutic benefit. In contrast, selecting patients with more proliferative, BMP4-responsive GSCs markedly increases the likelihood of observing a significant treatment effect. Citation Format: Nicholas Harbour, Lee Curtin, Loizos Michaelides, Matthew E. Hubbard, Pamela Jackson, Vinitha Rani, Rajappa Kenchappa, Virginea Farias, Anna Carrano, Markus Owen, Alfredo Quinones-Hinojosa, Kristin Swanson. Virtual clinical trials of BMP4 differentiation therapy [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2026; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2026 Apr 17-22; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2026;86(7 Suppl):Abstract nr 6831.

Abstract Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most aggressive and most common primary malignant brain tumor in adults, with a poor median survival time of 15 months. One of the key challenges in treating GBM is its highly heterogeneous nature, with multiple distinct subtypes that have been shown to occur on both inter- and intra-patient levels. Three main classifications, known as classical/proliferative, mesenchymal and proneural have become commonly demonstrated phenotypes. The cell cycle is a fundamental and highly conserved process that controls faithful division of cells; dysregulation of the cell cycle is known to be a key driver in many cancers. However, how the cell cycle is differently regulated between these subtypes has not been well classified in vivo. We investigate these three GBM subtypes using a recently published single nucleus RNAseq (snRNAseq) data set. We compare cell cycle regulation/dysregulation among these three subtypes using Tricycle, an R/Bioconductor package that utilises dimension reduction via principal component analysis and transfer learning to infer cell cycle position from any snRNAseq data set. We find that the classical GBM subtype has the highest proportion of actively dividing cells (cells in: S/G2/M phases), while the mesenchymal and proneural subtypes have a very low proportion of actively dividing cells. This supports the idea of a proliferation-migration dichotomy between GBM subtypes. We use this proportion of actively proliferating cells to calibrate a minimal spatiotemporal mathematical model for GBM tumor growth that accounts for the differences in cell cycle regulation between these three GBM subtypes.

Abstract Glioblastomas (GBMs) are known to be complex tumors comprising multiple subpopulations of genetically-distinct cancer cells; it is thought that this genetic variation is a major factor in the lack of observed survival benefit of treatment regimes that target one of these subpopulations. The field of radiogenomics seeks to study correlations between MRI patterns and genetic features of GBM tumors. Spatial radiogenomic maps produced using machine-learning (ML) methods that are trained against information from image-localized patient biopsies identify regions where particular cancer sub-populations are predicted to occur within a GBM, thus non-invasively characterizing the regional genetic variability of these tumors. These tumor subpopulations may also interact with one another, in ways which may be of a competitive or cooperative nature to varying degrees. It is important to ascertain the nature of these interactions, as they may have implications for treatment response to targeted therapies, and characterization of the spatio-temporal dynamics of these co-evolving sub-populations will shed light on why some therapies fail. Here we combine mathematical modeling techniques and spatially-resolved radiogenomic maps to study the nature of these interactions between molecularly-distinct GBM subpopulations. We model the interactions between cell populations using a partial differential equation based formalism. The model is parameterized using radiogenomic ML maps from which we infer the nature of interactions between subpopulations. Furthermore, using maps as inputs, the model turns static maps into dynamic information, thus providing insight into how these subpopulations composing the tumor change over time and the effect this has on observed treatment response for individual patients.