Tripepi, Giovanni Luigi

Abstract Introduction Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) identifies a hypercontractile phenotype (HP) in chronic coronary syndromes (CCS), characterized by elevated resting left ventricular (LV) elastance (force = systolic blood pressure/end-systolic volume). To evaluate the prognostic significance and functional correlates of HP. Methods In a prospective multicentre study, 10 677 patients with CCS underwent resting TTE to assess LV ejection fraction (EF), stroke volume, and force by quantitative volumetric echocardiography. All patients were followed for the endpoint of all-cause mortality. In a subset of 5834 patients, stress echocardiography (exercise or dobutamine) was performed for LV contractile reserve and heart rate reserve. Results Patients were stratified into Force quintiles (Q1–Q5). Patients with hypercontractile phenotype exhibited lower stroke volume at rest (Q5 = 34.8 ± 12.3 vs Q1–Q4 = 57.4 ± 19.1 mL; P < .01) and higher EF at rest (Q5 = 64.8 ± 6.9% vs Q1–Q4 = 58.1 ± 8.7%, P < .01). During a median follow-up of 24 months (interquartile range = 12–40 months), 509 deaths occurred. The exposure-adjusted death rate was lowest in Q3 (3.53–4.51 mmHg/mL; 1.03 per 100 person/years) and higher in Q1 (≤2.62 mmHg/mL, 2.88), Q2 (2.63–3.52 mmHg/mL, 1.86), Q4 (4.52–6.11 mmHg/mL, 1.56), and Q5 (HP, >6.11 mmHg/mL; 1.88; P < .0001 vs Q1 and Q3). Multivariable analysis identified HP (Q5; HR 1.531 vs Q3, 95% CI 1.116–2.099; P = .006) and EF (HR 0.963, 95% CI 0.953–0.972; P < .0001) as independent predictors of death. During exercise or dobutamine stress, HP showed reduced LV contractile reserve (ΔEF: Q5 = 4.3 ± 9.4% vs Q1–Q4 = 7.0 ± 9.3%; P < .001) and blunted heart rate reserve (Q5 = 1.77 ± 0.33 vs Q1–Q4 = 1.85 ± 0.39; P < .01). All patients with force-based LV contractile reserve >4.1 (present in 185, 3.2% of the population) survived. Conclusion Patients with CCS with HP assessed by resting TTE demonstrate higher mortality and multilayered functional impairment, including reduced LV contractile and chronotropic reserves. Hypercontractile phenotype improved the prediction of mortality by EF. A ‘stronger’ heart is, in fact, functionally and prognostically weaker.

Abstract Background: Over the last two decades several phenotypic, molecular, and chromosomal markers have been identified that are significantly associated with the prognosis of CLL patients. Therefore, clinicians managing CLL patients would benefit from a simplified prognostic index. Methods: We analyzed prospectively collected data from 337 Binet A CLL patients enrolled in Italian the O-CLL1-GISL protocol with the aim of developing scores capable of predicting treatment free survival (TFS). Factors independently associated with TFS were included in the prognostic indexes. To account for differences in the magnitude of the association between the individual independent factors and TFS, we assigned a weighted risk score to each factor based on ranges of their corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) (i.e., 1 point for HR 1.1-1.9; 2 points for HR 2.0-2.9, etc.). The total risk score was then calculated by the sum of the ratings of each factor on individual basis. Risk groups were identified combining risk categories with a non-statistically different TFS. Results: We developed two scores based on weighted multivariable models: the first included clinical and laboratory parameters [clinical score (c-score)], while the second was based on biological markers [biological score (b-score)] (Table 1). The c-score allowed to predict the TFS of patients through the combination of Rai stage, b2-microglobulin and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), while the b-score predicted TFS by IGHV mutational status and CD38 expression. The c-score showed a C-statistic of 0.72, while the b-score was 0.67, although cases stratified according to the b-score showed a more specific mRNA/microRNA profile. When the two scores were forced in a multivariate analysis, both showed an independent predictive value on TFS with a similar HR, demonstrating their complementarity. Thus, we attempted to integrate the two scores performing a further multivariate analysis in which all parameters, significantly associated with TFS at univariate analysis, were tested (Table 1). ALC, Rai stage, b2-microglobulin together with IGHV mutational status, resulted independently associated with TFS. We constructed a weighted score [comprehensive score (co-score)], including all the above 4 variables, which allowed the identification of 3 different risk groups with significantly different TFS (Figure 1). The C-statistic of the g-score was 0.75, showing a better concordance than the other two scores. Moreover, its validity was externally validated in a series of 297 newly diagnosed Binet A CLL patients from the Mayo Clinic, USA. Conclusions: Using this multistep process and external validation, we developed a score with high discriminatory power and predictive significance on the individual patient level. Table 1. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional Hazards Models Variable Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis Clinical model Biological model Comprehensive model HR (95% CI) P HR (95% CI) P score HR (95% CI) P score HR (95% CI) P score Age (years) <60/>60 1.12 (0.73-1.74) 0.59 - - - - - - - - - Sex Male/Female 0.93 (0.6-1.44) 0.93 - - - - - - - - - Rai stage 0/I-II 2.30 (1.47-3.50) <0.0001 2.13 (1.24-3.03) 0.004 0/2 - - - 1.76 (1.11-2.78) 0.015 0/1 ALC (109/L) <10/>10 3.43 (1.99-5.92) <0.0001 2.91 (1.85-5.20) <0.0001 0/2 - - - 2.70 (1.54-4.72) 0.001 0/2 b-2 microglobulin normal/elevated 3.04 (1.96-4.70) <0.0001 2.78 (1.79-4.30) <0.0001 0/2 - - - 2.65 (1.66-4.21) <0.0001 0/2 LDH normal/elevated 1.25 (0.57-2.71) 0.57 - - - - - - - - - CD38 negative/positive 3.22 (2.06-5.02) <0.0001 - - - 2.11 (1.15-3.16) 0.02 0/2 1.40 (0.80-2.42) 0.24 - ZAP-70 negative/positive 2.34 (1.51-3.61) <0.0001 - - - 1.21 (0.70-2.16) 0.485 - 1.0 (0.98-1.01) 0.72 - IGHV mutated/unmutated 3.57 (2.32-5.50) <0.0001 - - - 2.10 (1.12-3.90) 0.019 0/2 2.39 (1.27-4.50) 0.007 0/2 FISH risk low+int/high 2.93 (1.46-5.90) 0.002 - - - 1.65 (0.76-3.34) 0.216 - 1.80 (0.84-3.88) 0.13 - Abbreviations: ALC: absolute lymphocyte count; CI: confidential interval; HR: hazard ratio. Figure 1. TFS according to comprehensive progression risk score. Figure 1. TFS according to comprehensive progression risk score. Disclosures Shanafelt: Cephalon: Research Funding; Glaxo-Smith-Kline: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding; Hospira: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Jannsen: Research Funding; Polyphenon E International: Research Funding; Pharmacyclics: Research Funding. Kay:Genentech: Research Funding; Celgene Corporation: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Gilead: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Hospira: Research Funding; Tolero Pharma: Research Funding; Pharmacyclics: Research Funding.