Bennett, William M.

Key Points Data were collected from a cohort of 759 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease that were followed for a median of 10.2 years. Prognostic models were developed to predict kidney failure using routinely obtained clinical information and externally validated. Risk predictions had good discrimination and calibration over a time horizon of 15 years. Background Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a common cause of kidney failure. Progression is highly variable, and accurate prognostic information is needed to guide early treatment decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a multivariable predictive model for progression to kidney failure. Methods We developed prognostic models using Cox regression for the outcome of kidney failure, defined as eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , dialysis, or kidney transplantation. The development dataset consisted of participants in the Consortium for Radiologic Imaging Studies of Polycystic Kidney Disease (CRISP) and Halt Progression of Polycystic Kidney Disease study A (HALT-A) studies. The validation dataset consisted of patients with ADPKD in the Mayo clinical registry aged 15–49 years, with eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . Predictor variables in the base model were age, sex, creatinine or eGFR, ADPKD genotype, and Mayo Imaging Class. Clinical and laboratory data were evaluated in the full model. Results The development cohort included 759 patients with baseline eGFR of 91±29 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (mean±SD), of whom 16% reached end point after median (interquartile range) follow-up of 10.2 (5.5–16.7) years. The validation cohort included 535 patients with baseline eGFR of 90±31 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 (mean±SD), of whom 11% reached end point after median (interquartile range) follow-up of 5.5 (1.5–13.7) years. The full model, including age, sex, serum creatinine, Mayo Imaging Class, total carbon dioxide, hemoglobin, diastolic BP, and body mass index, had a C-index of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.90) in the validation cohort and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.62 to 0.88) when ADPKD genotype was also included. Risk predictions from base and full models were well-calibrated out to 15 years. Conclusions In persons with early ADPKD and preserved eGFR, a model using routinely obtained clinical information quantified risk of kidney failure over 15 years.

Background and objectives To evaluate the growth pattern of kidney cyst number and cyst volume in association with kidney size, demographics, and genotypes in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Kidney cyst number and cyst volume were measured from serial magnetic resonance images, giving a maximum follow-up of 14.23 years, from 241 patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (15–46 years old at baseline). The growth pattern was analyzed, in association with sex, age, height-adjusted total kidney volume, and genotype, using linear mixed models of repeated measurements and tests of interactions with age (as a time-dependent covariate) to assess rates of change over time. Models were also fit using Irazabal class. Genotypic groups were characterized as either ( 1 ) PKD1 truncating, PKD1 nontruncating, and PKD2 plus patients with no mutation detected; or ( 2 ) in combination with PKD1 mutation strength groups. Results Imaging and genetic data were collected (at least one visit) for 236 participants. The mean height-adjusted total cyst number increased exponentially over time from a baseline value of 762 to 1715 at the last clinic visit, while the mean height-adjusted total cyst volume increased exponentially from 305 to 770 ml. Height-adjusted total kidney volume, height-adjusted total cyst number, and height-adjusted total cyst volume were all highly correlated over time. Female participants and participants with larger height-adjusted total kidney volume at baseline showed smaller rates of change in the log of height-adjusted total cyst number and cyst volume. PKD1 was associated with significant increases in both cyst number and volume at a given age, but genotype did not significantly affect the rate of growth. Conclusions Both height-adjusted total cyst number and height-adjusted total cyst volume increased exponentially and more than doubled over 14.23 years of follow-up. Compared with PKD2 plus no mutation detected, PKD1 was associated with a greater cyst number and volume at a given age, but no significant difference in the rate of growth.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) often results in ESRD but with a highly variable course. Mutations to PKD1 or PKD2 cause ADPKD; both loci have high levels of allelic heterogeneity. We evaluated genotype-phenotype correlations in 1119 patients (945 families) from the HALT Progression of PKD Study and the Consortium of Radiologic Imaging Study of PKD Study. The population was defined as: 77.7% PKD1, 14.7% PKD2, and 7.6% with no mutation detected (NMD). Phenotypic end points were sex, eGFR, height–adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV), and liver cyst volume. Analysis of the eGFR and htTKV measures showed that the PKD1 group had more severe disease than the PKD2 group, whereas the NMD group had a PKD2-like phenotype. In both the PKD1 and PKD2 populations, men had more severe renal disease, but women had larger liver cyst volumes. Compared with nontruncating PKD1 mutations, truncating PKD1 mutations associated with lower eGFR, but the mutation groups were not differentiated by htTKV. PKD1 nontruncating mutations were evaluated for conservation and chemical change and subdivided into strong (mutation strength group 2 [MSG2]) and weak (MSG3) mutation groups. Analysis of eGFR and htTKV measures showed that patients with MSG3 but not MSG2 mutations had significantly milder disease than patients with truncating cases (MSG1), an association especially evident in extreme decile populations. Overall, we have quantified the contribution of genic and PKD1 allelic effects and sex to the ADPKD phenotype. Intrafamilial correlation analysis showed that other factors shared by families influence htTKV, with these additional genetic/environmental factors significantly affecting the ADPKD phenotype.