Flessner, Michael F.

Abstract Background Patients with mild autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) are less likely to be informative in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). We previously developed an imaging classification of ADPKD (typical diffuse cyst distribution Class 1A–E and atypical cyst distribution Class 2) for prognostic enrichment design in RCTs. We investigated whether using this classification would have increased the power to detect a beneficial treatment effect of rigorous blood pressure (BP) control on HALT-PKD participants with early disease (Study A). Methods Post hoc analysis of the early disease HALT-PKD study, an RCT that studied the effect of rigorous versus standard BP control on rates of total kidney volume (TKV) increase and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline in ADPKD patients with eGFR >60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Results Five hundred and fifty-one patients were classified by two observers (98.2% agreement) into Class 1A (6.2%), 1B (20.3%), 1C (34.1%), 1D (22.1%), 1E (11.8%) and 2 (5.4%). The TKV increase and eGFR decline became steeper from Class 1A through 1E. Rigorous BP control had been shown to be associated with slower TKV increase, without a significant overall effect on the rate of eGFR decline (faster in the first 4 months and marginally slower thereafter). Merging Classes 1A and 2 (lowest severity), 1B and 1C (intermediate severity) and 1D and 1E (highest severity) detected stronger beneficial effects on TKV increase and eGFR decline in Class 1D and E with a smaller number of patients. Conclusions Strategies for prognostic enrichment, such as image classification, should be used in the design of RCTs for ADPKD to increase their power and reduce their cost.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) often results in ESRD but with a highly variable course. Mutations to PKD1 or PKD2 cause ADPKD; both loci have high levels of allelic heterogeneity. We evaluated genotype-phenotype correlations in 1119 patients (945 families) from the HALT Progression of PKD Study and the Consortium of Radiologic Imaging Study of PKD Study. The population was defined as: 77.7% PKD1, 14.7% PKD2, and 7.6% with no mutation detected (NMD). Phenotypic end points were sex, eGFR, height–adjusted total kidney volume (htTKV), and liver cyst volume. Analysis of the eGFR and htTKV measures showed that the PKD1 group had more severe disease than the PKD2 group, whereas the NMD group had a PKD2-like phenotype. In both the PKD1 and PKD2 populations, men had more severe renal disease, but women had larger liver cyst volumes. Compared with nontruncating PKD1 mutations, truncating PKD1 mutations associated with lower eGFR, but the mutation groups were not differentiated by htTKV. PKD1 nontruncating mutations were evaluated for conservation and chemical change and subdivided into strong (mutation strength group 2 [MSG2]) and weak (MSG3) mutation groups. Analysis of eGFR and htTKV measures showed that patients with MSG3 but not MSG2 mutations had significantly milder disease than patients with truncating cases (MSG1), an association especially evident in extreme decile populations. Overall, we have quantified the contribution of genic and PKD1 allelic effects and sex to the ADPKD phenotype. Intrafamilial correlation analysis showed that other factors shared by families influence htTKV, with these additional genetic/environmental factors significantly affecting the ADPKD phenotype.