Delaney, Joseph A C

Objectives To understand the trade-offs between different statistical modeling approaches, using real world data with small sub-populations, with rare exposures and increasingly rare outcomes. In particular, to compare adjusted regression, inverse probability weighting, and matching. Methods Data for these analyses came from the RADAR (N=1,134) and combined CNICS/JHHCC (N=14,434) cohorts. We estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) for self-reported use of specific substances comparing subpopulations (SP), SP-1 vs SP-3 and SP-2 vs SP-3, where SP-1 was the largest proportion (92% in RADAR, 81% in CNICS/JHHCC), SP2 was moderate proportion (18% in CNICS/JHHCC) and SP-3 was the smallest proportion (8% in RADAR, 1% in CNICS/JHHCC) of the population. We calculated PRs using 1) unadjusted relative risk regression (RR); and adjusted estimates controlling for age, race/ethnicity, study site, and year of interview using: 2) standard adjustment in RR; 3) stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW); and 4) matching with up to 3 matches from SP-1 or SP-2 per SP-3 participant. Results For most substances, all methods yielded consistent estimates. There were large weights in some of the IPTW analyses and in three cases these resulted in substantially divergent estimates. For the comparison between SP-1 and SP-3, the estimate for smoking was 1.3-fold greater in the matched analysis (PR=1.33, 95% CI: 1.02-1.75) than in IPTW (PR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.78-1.37 ATE and PR=1.05, 95% CI: 0.88-1.26 ATT). Even more extreme divergence in estimates was observed for differences between SP-2 and SP-3 with respect to methamphetamine/amphetamine, (IPTW-ATE: PR=1.51, 95% CI: 0.79-2.89; IPTW-ATT: PR=2.36, 95% CI: 1.36-4.12); vs Matching: PR=2.71, 95%CI: 1.47-4.99) and cocaine (IPTW-ATE: PR=1.15, 95% CI: 0.55-2.38; IPTW-ATT: PR=1.81, 95% CI: 1.03-3.18); vs Matching: PR=1.38, 95%CI: 0.76-2.53). Conclusion The combination of a rare exposure and a rare outcome can produce challenges for commonly used confounding adjustment strategies, and it is often best to compare different modeling approaches to gain greater insight.

BACKGROUND Among antiretroviral therapy–suppressed (ART-suppressed) people with HIV (PWH), women have higher levels of some inflammatory markers than men, but the effect of sex on the inflammatory proteome, and whether age modifies these differences, remain unclear. METHODS Plasma inflammatory protein levels were assessed in ART-suppressed PWH from the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. The relationship between sex and plasma proteins — including 22 interferon-α response pathway proteins — was assessed, adjusting for confounders and assessing interactions by age. RESULTS Of 922 participants, 162 (18%) were female. The median age was 47, above which the majority of women had undetectable plasma anti-Müllerian hormone levels, a biomarker of ovarian reserve. Age modified the influence of sex on the inflammatory proteome. Older age (>47) was associated with greater increases among women than men in 194 proteins. Interferon-α response proteins were higher in men in those ≤ 47 but higher in women in those > 47 (interaction P < 0.001). Among the 131 proteins associated with mortality risk ( q < 0.05), only 5 differed by sex among those ≤ 47, while 79 differed by sex in those > 47, with nearly all being higher in women. Women had decreased mortality than men ≤ 47 ( P < 0.001) but had similar mortality > 47 ( P = 0.84). CONCLUSION The menopausal transition appears to increase systemic type I interferon responses and inflammation in women with HIV, which may contribute to a loss of female advantage in mortality. FUNDING NIH National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.