Baum, Marianna K.

Objectives To understand the trade-offs between different statistical modeling approaches, using real world data with small sub-populations, with rare exposures and increasingly rare outcomes. In particular, to compare adjusted regression, inverse probability weighting, and matching. Methods Data for these analyses came from the RADAR (N=1,134) and combined CNICS/JHHCC (N=14,434) cohorts. We estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) for self-reported use of specific substances comparing subpopulations (SP), SP-1 vs SP-3 and SP-2 vs SP-3, where SP-1 was the largest proportion (92% in RADAR, 81% in CNICS/JHHCC), SP2 was moderate proportion (18% in CNICS/JHHCC) and SP-3 was the smallest proportion (8% in RADAR, 1% in CNICS/JHHCC) of the population. We calculated PRs using 1) unadjusted relative risk regression (RR); and adjusted estimates controlling for age, race/ethnicity, study site, and year of interview using: 2) standard adjustment in RR; 3) stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW); and 4) matching with up to 3 matches from SP-1 or SP-2 per SP-3 participant. Results For most substances, all methods yielded consistent estimates. There were large weights in some of the IPTW analyses and in three cases these resulted in substantially divergent estimates. For the comparison between SP-1 and SP-3, the estimate for smoking was 1.3-fold greater in the matched analysis (PR=1.33, 95% CI: 1.02-1.75) than in IPTW (PR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.78-1.37 ATE and PR=1.05, 95% CI: 0.88-1.26 ATT). Even more extreme divergence in estimates was observed for differences between SP-2 and SP-3 with respect to methamphetamine/amphetamine, (IPTW-ATE: PR=1.51, 95% CI: 0.79-2.89; IPTW-ATT: PR=2.36, 95% CI: 1.36-4.12); vs Matching: PR=2.71, 95%CI: 1.47-4.99) and cocaine (IPTW-ATE: PR=1.15, 95% CI: 0.55-2.38; IPTW-ATT: PR=1.81, 95% CI: 1.03-3.18); vs Matching: PR=1.38, 95%CI: 0.76-2.53). Conclusion The combination of a rare exposure and a rare outcome can produce challenges for commonly used confounding adjustment strategies, and it is often best to compare different modeling approaches to gain greater insight.

Abstract Background Liver disease remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected persons. Soluble CD163 is a marker of Kupffer cell activation that is highly associated with development of hepatic fibrosis. The relative contributions of HIV-associated systemic immune activation vs other etiologies of injury are poorly characterized. Methods We utilized subjects in the Miami Adult Studies on HIV (MASH) cohort to evaluate 464 participants including 361 people with HIV (PWH) and 103 hepatitis C virus (HCV)/HIV-uninfected controls. Subjects underwent testing for hepatic fibrosis using both magnetic resonance elastography and the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis Index. Steatosis was evaluated by magnetic resonance imaging–derived proton density fat fraction. Immune activation markers and cytokines were quantitated using Luminex methodologies. Results Participants with HIV with or without HCV coinfection had higher levels of sCD163 than uninfected controls (P < .05). Soluble sCD163 was highly associated with elevated alanine aminotransferase, a key marker of inflammation/injury and with hepatic fibrosis. Hepatic steatosis was also associated with a cytokine pattern suggestive of Kupffer cell activation but was not associated with an increase in sCD14 or sCD27. Conclusions Injury and resultant hepatic fibrosis occur by distinct though overlapping mechanistic pathways. In PWH, sCD163 is highly associated with both injury and fibrosis, suggesting that persistent systemic immune activation is a major contributor to long-term outcomes, adding to damage caused by alcohol, steatosis, and other hepatotoxic drug effects.

In persons living with HIV (PLWH), there are multiple sources of liver injury. Gene polymorphisms of PNPLA3 (patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3) have been identified as an important cofactor for increased disease severity in both alcoholic and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). We utilized a well-characterized cohort of ethnically and racially diverse patients with HIV to define the prevalence of PNPLA3 SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphism) (rs738409), and to determine the relationship to hepatic steatosis and liver fibrosis. Steatosis was determined using MRI-PDFF (magnetic resonance imaging-determined proton density fat fraction) and fibrosis was estimated using MR Elastography (MRE). From the Miami Area HIV Study (MASH) cohort, 100 HIV positive participants and 40 controls (HCV/HIV = 20; HCV and HIV negative = 20) were evaluated. Nearly 40% of all participants carried the variant G allele associated with increased liver disease severity and 5% were homozygotic GG. The variant SNP occurred most frequently in those self-identified as Hispanic compared to white or Black participants. Hepatic steatosis (>5% fat) was present significantly more often in those without HIV vs. those with (p < 0.001). Putative NAFLD/NASH was found to be present in 6% of tested subjects, who were HIV monoinfected. BMI was lower in those that carried the G allele for PNPLA3. This finding suggests that PNPLA3 may be an independent component to NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease)/NASH development and longitudinal follow-up of the cohort is warranted.