Hagiya, Hideharu

Background and Objectives: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has one of the highest age-standardized diabetes prevalence rates globally, yet all-age, diabetes-specific evidence incorporating GBD 2023 estimates through 2023 remains limited. Materials and Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 21 MENA countries from 1990 to 2023, this ecological time-trend analysis quantified 33-year trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); compared pre-2019 and post-2019 trajectories using joinpoint regression; characterized age- and sex-specific burden patterns; and quantified contributions of modifiable risk factors. Results: Age-standardized incidence increased 92%, from 251.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 231.5 to 272.4) to 482.5 (95% UI: 451.5 to 516.4) per 100,000, and prevalence more than doubled, from 5564 (95% UI: 5088 to 6024) to 11,247 (95% UI: 10,382 to 12,132) per 100,000. In 2023, males exhibited higher DALY rates than females in most adult age groups from age 15 years onward, shifting away from the female-predominant pattern seen in 1990; female rates remained higher at several of the oldest age groups. Children aged 0 to 14 years were the only group with declining DALY rates (−52% to −57%). Post-2019 incidence was higher in 15 of 21 countries, and six countries had higher DALY trends with non-overlapping confidence intervals. Because we only have four to five years of data, these short trends are preliminary and require care when evaluating. High body-mass index was the leading modifiable risk factor. Conclusions: These data support country-specific prevention and chronic-care strategies across the MENA region.

Background/Objectives: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden decreased in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region between 1990 and 2019. This study used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to examine whether trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence continued through 2023 across all 21 NAME countries. Methods: We analysed age-standardised CVD mortality, incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression identified changes in temporal trends and calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Age-standardised CVD mortality decreased from 579.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 358.2 in 2023 (AAPC: −1.42%; 95% CI: −1.48 to −1.35). However, no significant reduction occurred between 2019 and 2023 (APC: −0.33%; 95% CI: −1.37 to 1.75). DALY, incidence, and prevalence rates followed similar patterns, with no significant decline in the final years of this study. Egypt was the only country with a long-term increase in CVD mortality, which accelerated after 2020 (APC: +5.20%; 95% CI: 1.20 to 12.87). High systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, lead exposure, and air pollution were the leading modifiable risk factors. Conclusions: The earlier decline in CVD burden in the NAME region did not clearly continue after 2019. The region is currently off track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 by 2030. Future progress may depend on improved blood pressure control, lipid management, dietary habits, and environmental risk reduction.

Background/Objectives: Racial/ethnic and regional disparities in neoplasm-related mortality remain a significant public health challenge. In this study, we aimed to evaluate long-term trends in county-level neoplasm-related mortality rates by race/ethnicity in the United States and examine associations with social determinants of health. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study using population-based data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, including individuals residing in 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia from 2000 to 2019. We analyzed age-standardized neoplasm-related mortality rates by ethnicity/race. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in mortality trends, summarized as average annual percentage change. County-level correlations between mortality and key social determinants of health were also assessed. Results: Neoplasm-related mortality rates declined across all racial/ethnic groups from 2000 to 2019; however, disparities persisted. The age-standardized neoplasm-related mortality rates per 100,000 population decreased in all racial/ethnic subgroups. The average annual percentage change ranged from −0.94% (Hispanic and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native) to −1.90% (Black). Sex-specific analyses revealed similar trends. Southeastern states experienced slower declines than Northeastern states did. County-level smoking and poverty rates were positively correlated, whereas the primary care physician-to-population ratio, excessive alcohol consumption rate, mammography screening rate, and median household income were inversely correlated with neoplasm-related mortality rate, varying by race/ethnicity. Conclusions: Targeted, community-specific interventions are required to reduce inequities in cancer outcomes.

Background and Aims: Biliary tract cancers (BTCs), including intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA), extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, gallbladder cancer, and ampullary cancer, exhibit poor prognosis. This study examined temporal trends in mortality due to BTCs and their major subtypes at international, regional, and national levels. Approach and Results: This observational study used the World Health Organization mortality database. Locally weighted regression (LOESS) was used to produce a smoothed curve of long-term international and regional BTC and major subtype-related mortality rates in 2000–2022 based on available data from countries. Trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASRs) during 2013–2022 for individual countries were examined using joinpoint regression analysis. Internationally, LOESS-smoothed ASRs per 100,000 population due to BTCs were 2.8 (95% CI: 2.5–3.1) in 2000, and 2.7 (2.3–3.1) in 2022. LOESS-smoothed BTC-related ASRs were the highest in the Western Pacific region at 4.2 (1.8–6.6) in 2022, compared with those in the European and American regions at 2.6 (2.3–2.9) and 2.2 (1.8–2.6), respectively. Among major subtypes, LOESS-smoothed ASRs due to iCCA increased by 120.0%, those due to gallbladder cancer decreased by 45.5%, and those due to extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma remained stable between 2000 and 2022. Disparities in BTC and major subtype-related ASR trends were observed between countries during 2013–2022, with iCCA-associated ASRs showing increasing trends in many countries. Conclusions: Although internationally estimated BTC-associated ASRs showed a stable trend over the last 2 decades, a large increase in estimated iCCA-associated ASRs necessitates developing effective screening for high-risk individuals and disease management strategies.