Iwata, Naohiro

Background/Objectives: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden decreased in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region between 1990 and 2019. This study used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to examine whether trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence continued through 2023 across all 21 NAME countries. Methods: We analysed age-standardised CVD mortality, incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression identified changes in temporal trends and calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Age-standardised CVD mortality decreased from 579.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 358.2 in 2023 (AAPC: −1.42%; 95% CI: −1.48 to −1.35). However, no significant reduction occurred between 2019 and 2023 (APC: −0.33%; 95% CI: −1.37 to 1.75). DALY, incidence, and prevalence rates followed similar patterns, with no significant decline in the final years of this study. Egypt was the only country with a long-term increase in CVD mortality, which accelerated after 2020 (APC: +5.20%; 95% CI: 1.20 to 12.87). High systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, lead exposure, and air pollution were the leading modifiable risk factors. Conclusions: The earlier decline in CVD burden in the NAME region did not clearly continue after 2019. The region is currently off track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 by 2030. Future progress may depend on improved blood pressure control, lipid management, dietary habits, and environmental risk reduction.

Abstract Background Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability globally. However, information about stroke burden in the Philippines is limited. We sought to analyze stroke burden in the Philippines from 1990 to 2023. Methods Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 data were used as indicators to analyze the burden of stroke by sex and age. Temporal trends in both crude and age-standardized rates were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis. Results In 2023, stroke incidence was estimated at 156.2 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 140.8–175.4) thousand, prevalence at 1.2 (95% UI: 1.2–1.4) million, mortality at 72.2 (95% UI: 63.2–83.0) thousand, and DALYs at 2.1 (95% UI: 1.8–2.3) million. High systolic blood pressure was the leading contributor to risk-attributable stroke mortality and DALYs. Since 1990, age-standardized rates declined significantly, whereas crude rates increased markedly. Compared with women, men had a higher fatal burden and consistently exhibited a higher age-standardized burden. Although older adults (≥ 55 years) had the highest stroke burden and achieved reductions in stroke incidence and fatal outcomes, both fatal and non-fatal burdens consistently increased among young adults (35–54 years). Conclusion While age-standardized rates have improved, the rising crude burden and shift towards younger adults present significant public health challenges. These trends highlight the pressing need for aggressive and targeted risk factor control, sustained risk monitoring, and strengthened acute and post-stroke care to mitigate the growing health burden of stroke in the Philippines.