Hagiya, Hideharu

Background and Objectives: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has one of the highest age-standardized diabetes prevalence rates globally, yet all-age, diabetes-specific evidence incorporating GBD 2023 estimates through 2023 remains limited. Materials and Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 21 MENA countries from 1990 to 2023, this ecological time-trend analysis quantified 33-year trends in incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs); compared pre-2019 and post-2019 trajectories using joinpoint regression; characterized age- and sex-specific burden patterns; and quantified contributions of modifiable risk factors. Results: Age-standardized incidence increased 92%, from 251.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 231.5 to 272.4) to 482.5 (95% UI: 451.5 to 516.4) per 100,000, and prevalence more than doubled, from 5564 (95% UI: 5088 to 6024) to 11,247 (95% UI: 10,382 to 12,132) per 100,000. In 2023, males exhibited higher DALY rates than females in most adult age groups from age 15 years onward, shifting away from the female-predominant pattern seen in 1990; female rates remained higher at several of the oldest age groups. Children aged 0 to 14 years were the only group with declining DALY rates (−52% to −57%). Post-2019 incidence was higher in 15 of 21 countries, and six countries had higher DALY trends with non-overlapping confidence intervals. Because we only have four to five years of data, these short trends are preliminary and require care when evaluating. High body-mass index was the leading modifiable risk factor. Conclusions: These data support country-specific prevention and chronic-care strategies across the MENA region.

Importance Head and neck cancer (HNC) accounts for nearly 1 million new cases and approximately half a million deaths annually worldwide, representing a substantial global health burden. Despite an overall decline in mortality in many regions, patterns vary across anatomical subsites and countries. Objective To evaluate international and national mortality trends in HNC and its major anatomical subsites from 2001 to 2023. Design, Setting, and Participants This observational epidemiologic study analyzed population-based mortality data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database for 73 countries between 2001 and 2023. Data collection was conducted in May 2025, and the data were analyzed between May and October 2025. Eligible countries had medium- to high-quality vital registration data. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASRs) were calculated using the new WHO World Standard Population. Country-specific trends from 2010 to 2023 were assessed using joinpoint regression among countries with at least 7 years of available data. Main Outcomes and Measures ASRs and average annual percentage change in HNC mortality overall and by anatomical subsite using population-based analysis. Results From 2001 to 2023, 2 000 066 HNC-related deaths (450 657 females; 1 549 409 males) were recorded. Internationally, ASRs decreased by 38.9%, with greater reductions among male individuals than among female individuals. Substantial divergence was observed across subsites: laryngeal cancer mortality decreased markedly (−50.1%), whereas increasing trends in oropharyngeal cancer mortality were observed in many countries in recent years, particularly in high-income countries such as the UK (average annual percentage change, 4.30%) and the US (average annual percentage change, 3.26%). Conclusions and Relevance Results of this study suggest that, although overall HNC-related ASRs have declined internationally, marked variation across subsites and countries persists. The contrasting trends between laryngeal and oropharyngeal cancers underscore the need for subtype-specific prevention strategies and continued global surveillance.

Background/Objectives: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden decreased in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region between 1990 and 2019. This study used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to examine whether trends in mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), incidence, and prevalence continued through 2023 across all 21 NAME countries. Methods: We analysed age-standardised CVD mortality, incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates from 1990 to 2023. Joinpoint regression identified changes in temporal trends and calculated the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Age-standardised CVD mortality decreased from 579.6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 358.2 in 2023 (AAPC: −1.42%; 95% CI: −1.48 to −1.35). However, no significant reduction occurred between 2019 and 2023 (APC: −0.33%; 95% CI: −1.37 to 1.75). DALY, incidence, and prevalence rates followed similar patterns, with no significant decline in the final years of this study. Egypt was the only country with a long-term increase in CVD mortality, which accelerated after 2020 (APC: +5.20%; 95% CI: 1.20 to 12.87). High systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, lead exposure, and air pollution were the leading modifiable risk factors. Conclusions: The earlier decline in CVD burden in the NAME region did not clearly continue after 2019. The region is currently off track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 by 2030. Future progress may depend on improved blood pressure control, lipid management, dietary habits, and environmental risk reduction.

e15687 Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening has been shown to reduce CRC-related mortality, yet substantial racial and ethnic disparities persist. Whether CRC screening confers equivalent mortality benefit across racial and ethnic groups, and the mechanisms underlying potential heterogeneity if any, remains unelucidated. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial, including 154,852 participants aged 55–74 years randomized to CRC screening or usual care. After excluding those with incomplete diagnostic data, 2,123 were eligible for analyses (929 in the screening arm, 1,195 in the control arm). Primary outcomes included cumulative incidence and CRC-specific mortality. Age-adjusted CRC mortality rates (AR, per 100,000) and crude rates (CR) were estimated by race/ethnicity and trial arm. Effect heterogeneity was assessed descriptively with trial-center analyses given correlations between center and racial/ethnic composition. Results: Overall, CRC screening was associated with lower cumulative CRC incidence and CRC-specific mortality compared with usual care. However, the magnitude of mortality reduction varied substantially by race/ethnicity (Table). Trial-center analyses demonstrated wide heterogeneity and screening–control separation across. For instance, data from Pennsylvania and Hawaii centers which has a high proportion of either non-Hispanic Black participants or Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders, had no mortality separation after 20 years of follow-up. Conclusions: Within a large randomized trial data, CRC screening effectiveness on mortality was not uniform across racial and ethnic groups. To enhance CRC screening benefits and to address the racial differences, downstream care processes have to be optimized rather than focusing on screening exposure alone. Future prospective data is warranted to address inequities in the full screening-to-diagnosis-to-treatment continuum and find out in which stage of care a care delivery disruption occurs. Colorectal cancer mortality by race/ethnicity and screening arm in the PLCO trial. Race/Ethnicity Age-standardized Mortality Rate per 100,000 (95% CI) Risk Reduction (95% CI) Screening Control Absolute Relative (%) White 362.1(313.8–410.3) 538.5(479.4–597.6) 176.4(100.1–252.7) 32.8(20.1–43.4) Black 680.8(405.8–955.7) 808.6(499.1–1118.2) 127.9(-286.2–541.9) 15.8(-46.9–51.7) Hispanic 455.8(86.7–824.8) 654.3(198.2–1110.4) 198.5(-388.2–785.3) 30.3(-102.8–76.1) Asian 333.0(84.7–581.2) 588.2(252.3–924.0) 255.2(-162.4–672.9) 43.4(-44.8–77.9)

Background/Objectives: Racial/ethnic and regional disparities in neoplasm-related mortality remain a significant public health challenge. In this study, we aimed to evaluate long-term trends in county-level neoplasm-related mortality rates by race/ethnicity in the United States and examine associations with social determinants of health. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional ecological study using population-based data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, including individuals residing in 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia from 2000 to 2019. We analyzed age-standardized neoplasm-related mortality rates by ethnicity/race. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in mortality trends, summarized as average annual percentage change. County-level correlations between mortality and key social determinants of health were also assessed. Results: Neoplasm-related mortality rates declined across all racial/ethnic groups from 2000 to 2019; however, disparities persisted. The age-standardized neoplasm-related mortality rates per 100,000 population decreased in all racial/ethnic subgroups. The average annual percentage change ranged from −0.94% (Hispanic and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native) to −1.90% (Black). Sex-specific analyses revealed similar trends. Southeastern states experienced slower declines than Northeastern states did. County-level smoking and poverty rates were positively correlated, whereas the primary care physician-to-population ratio, excessive alcohol consumption rate, mammography screening rate, and median household income were inversely correlated with neoplasm-related mortality rate, varying by race/ethnicity. Conclusions: Targeted, community-specific interventions are required to reduce inequities in cancer outcomes.

Abstract Background Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and disability globally. However, information about stroke burden in the Philippines is limited. We sought to analyze stroke burden in the Philippines from 1990 to 2023. Methods Incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 data were used as indicators to analyze the burden of stroke by sex and age. Temporal trends in both crude and age-standardized rates were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis. Results In 2023, stroke incidence was estimated at 156.2 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 140.8–175.4) thousand, prevalence at 1.2 (95% UI: 1.2–1.4) million, mortality at 72.2 (95% UI: 63.2–83.0) thousand, and DALYs at 2.1 (95% UI: 1.8–2.3) million. High systolic blood pressure was the leading contributor to risk-attributable stroke mortality and DALYs. Since 1990, age-standardized rates declined significantly, whereas crude rates increased markedly. Compared with women, men had a higher fatal burden and consistently exhibited a higher age-standardized burden. Although older adults (≥ 55 years) had the highest stroke burden and achieved reductions in stroke incidence and fatal outcomes, both fatal and non-fatal burdens consistently increased among young adults (35–54 years). Conclusion While age-standardized rates have improved, the rising crude burden and shift towards younger adults present significant public health challenges. These trends highlight the pressing need for aggressive and targeted risk factor control, sustained risk monitoring, and strengthened acute and post-stroke care to mitigate the growing health burden of stroke in the Philippines.

e13738 Background: Persistent racial/ethnic and regional disparities in neoplasm mortality remain significant public health challenges. This study evaluates long-term trends in neoplasm mortality by race/ethnicity at the county level in the United States and examines the relationship between hospital density and mortality. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2000-2019), we analyzed age-standardized mortality rates (ASR) for neoplasms by ethnicity/raceHispanic (all races) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Asian or Pacific Islander (API), Black, and White. A joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify significant changes in the mortality trends, summarized as average annual percent change (AAPC). Correlation analysis evaluated the relationship between county-level hospital density and neoplasm mortality. Results: Neoplasm mortality rates declined across all racial/ethnic groups from 2000 to 2019, but disparities persisted. ASR per 100,000 population decreased from 240.5 (95% UI: 214.3–269.9) to 203.0 (180.8–228.3) for AIAN, 149.5 (144.9–153.9) to 115.3 (111.7–118.7) for API, 314.5 (312.1–317.0) to 218.7 (217.1–220.3) for Black, 168.4 (164.6–172.0) to 133.8 (131.0–136.4) for Latino, and 241.2 (240.5–242.0) to 187.5 (186.9–188.2) for White. AAPC from 2000 to 2019 ranged from -0.94% (AIAN) to -1.90% (Black). Gender-specific analyses revealed similar trends, with males showing slightly greater declines. Southeast states experienced slower declines compared to the Northeast. Some counties exhibited worsening mortality trends, particularly for AIAN, API, and Latino. The county-level hospital density (table) showed weak but statistically significant correlations in 2019 for AIAN (r = -0.35; p < 0.0001), White (r = -0.15; p < 0.0001), and Black (r = -0.18; p < 0.0001). No inverse correlation was observed for API (r = 0.07; p = 0.071) and Latino (r = 0.06; p = 0.012). Conclusions: While significant progress has been made in reducing neoplasm mortality, racial/ethnic and regional disparities persist, and health care access appears to contribute to this at least in part. Future analyses should evaluate mortality by cancer site and also account for broader clinical and public health infrastructure, as well as social determinants of health to better understand and address underlying disparities. The correlation between hospital density and age-standardized mortality rate from neoplasms by race/ethnicity in 2019. Correlation coefficient with mortality and hospital density AIAN API Black Latino White 2019 -0.35(-0.43 – -0.27) 0.069(-0.0058–0.14) -0.18(-0.23 –-0.13) 0.064(0.014–0.11) -0.15(-0.19 – -0.12)

Background and Aims: Biliary tract cancers (BTCs), including intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA), extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, gallbladder cancer, and ampullary cancer, exhibit poor prognosis. This study examined temporal trends in mortality due to BTCs and their major subtypes at international, regional, and national levels. Approach and Results: This observational study used the World Health Organization mortality database. Locally weighted regression (LOESS) was used to produce a smoothed curve of long-term international and regional BTC and major subtype-related mortality rates in 2000–2022 based on available data from countries. Trends in age-standardized mortality rates (ASRs) during 2013–2022 for individual countries were examined using joinpoint regression analysis. Internationally, LOESS-smoothed ASRs per 100,000 population due to BTCs were 2.8 (95% CI: 2.5–3.1) in 2000, and 2.7 (2.3–3.1) in 2022. LOESS-smoothed BTC-related ASRs were the highest in the Western Pacific region at 4.2 (1.8–6.6) in 2022, compared with those in the European and American regions at 2.6 (2.3–2.9) and 2.2 (1.8–2.6), respectively. Among major subtypes, LOESS-smoothed ASRs due to iCCA increased by 120.0%, those due to gallbladder cancer decreased by 45.5%, and those due to extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma remained stable between 2000 and 2022. Disparities in BTC and major subtype-related ASR trends were observed between countries during 2013–2022, with iCCA-associated ASRs showing increasing trends in many countries. Conclusions: Although internationally estimated BTC-associated ASRs showed a stable trend over the last 2 decades, a large increase in estimated iCCA-associated ASRs necessitates developing effective screening for high-risk individuals and disease management strategies.