Balestrieri, Antonella

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop and validate a computed tomography angiography based machine learning model that uses plaque composition data and degree of carotid stenosis to detect symptomatic carotid plaques in patients with carotid atherosclerosis. METHODS: The machine learning based model was trained using degree of stenosis and the volumes of 13 computed tomography angiography derived intracarotid plaque subcomponents (eg, lipid, intraplaque hemorrhage, calcium) to identify plaques associated with cerebrovascular events. The model was internally validated through repeated 10-fold cross-validation and tested on a dedicated testing cohort according to discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: This retrospective, single-center study evaluated computed tomography angiography scans of 268 patients with both symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid atherosclerosis (163 for the derivation set and 106 for the testing set) performed between March 2013 and October 2019. The area-under-receiver-operating characteristics curve by machine learning on the testing cohort (0.89) was significantly higher than the areas under the curve of traditional logit analysis based on the degree of stenosis (0.51, P <0.001), presence of intraplaque hemorrhage (0.69, P <0.001), and plaque composition (0.78, P <0.001), respectively. Comparable performance was obtained on internal validation. The identified plaque components and associated cutoff values that were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of symptomatic status after adjustment were the ratio of intraplaque hemorrhage to lipid volume (≥50%, 38.5 [10.1–205.1]; odds ratio, 95% CI) and percentage of intraplaque hemorrhage volume (≥10%, 18.5 [5.7–69.4]; odds ratio, 95% CI). CONCLUSIONS: This study presented an interpretable machine learning model that accurately identifies symptomatic carotid plaques using computed tomography angiography derived plaque composition features, aiding clinical decision-making.

The role of calcium in atherosclerosis is controversial and the relationship between vascular calcification and plaque vulnerability is not fully understood. Although calcifications are present in ≈50% to 60% of carotid plaques, their association with cerebrovascular ischemic events remains unclear. In this review, we summarize current understanding of carotid plaque calcification. We outline the role of calcium in atherosclerotic carotid disease by analyzing laboratory studies and histopathologic studies, as well as imaging findings to understand clinical implications of carotid artery calcifications. Differences in mechanism of calcium deposition express themselves into a wide range of calcification phenotypes in carotid plaques. Some patterns, such as rim calcification, are suggestive of plaques with inflammatory activity with leakage of the vasa vasourm and intraplaque hemorrhage. Other patterns such as dense, nodular calcifications may confer greater mechanical stability to the plaque and reduce the risk of embolization for a given degree of plaque size and luminal stenosis. Various distributions and patterns of carotid plaque calcification, often influenced by the underlying systemic pathological condition, have a different role in affecting plaque stability. Modern imaging techniques afford multiple approaches to assess geometry, pattern of distribution, size, and composition of carotid artery calcifications. Future investigations with these novel technologies will further improve our understanding of carotid artery calcification and will play an important role in understanding and minimizing stroke risk in patients with carotid plaques.