Johnson, Isla M

ABSTRACT Patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND‐AML) derive variable survival benefit from venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven‐HMA) therapy. The primary objective in the current study was to develop genetic risk models that are predictive of survival and are applicable at the time of diagnosis and after establishing treatment response. Among 400 ND‐AML patients treated with Ven‐HMA at the Mayo Clinic, 247 (62%) achieved complete remission with (CR) or without (CRi) count recovery. Multivariable analysis–derived hazard ratios (HR), including 1.8 for European LeukemiaNet (ELN) adverse karyotype, 4.7 for KMT2Ar , 1.7 for TP53 MUT , 2.6 for KRAS MUT , and 2.1 for IDH2 WT were applied to develop an HR‐weighted risk model: low, intermediate, and high; respective median survival censored for allogeneic stem cell transplant (ASCT) (3‐year survival) were “not reached” (67%), 19.1 (33%), and 7.1 months (0%). In patients achieving CR/CRi, adverse karyotype, KMT2Ar , KRAS MUT , IDH2 WT predicted inferior survival, allowing for a complementary response‐stratified risk model. The model was externally validated and was shown to be superior to the ELN 2024 risk model (AIC 179 vs. 195 and AUC 0.77 vs. 0.69). Survival was inferior with failure to achieve CR/CRi or not receiving ASCT; 3‐year survival for high‐risk with or without ASCT was 42% versus 0% ( p < 0.01); intermediate 72% versus 43% ( p = 0.06); and low‐risk 88% versus 78% ( p = 0.53). The Mayo genetic risk models offer pre‐treatment and response‐based prognostic tools for ND‐AML treated with Ven‐HMA. The current study underscores the prognostically indispensable role of achieving CR/CRi and ASCT.

SummaryAmong 301 newly diagnosed patients with acute myeloid leukaemia receiving venetoclax and a hypomethylating agent, 23 (7.6%) experienced major cardiac complications: 15 cardiomyopathy, 5 non‐ST elevation myocardial infarction and/or 7 pericarditis/effusions. Four patients had more than one cardiac complication. Baseline characteristics included median age ± interquartile range; 73 ± 5 years; 87% males; 96% with cardiovascular risk factors; and 90% with preserved baseline ejection fraction. In multivariate analysis, males were more likely (p = 0.02) and DNMT3A‐mutated cases less likely (p < 0.01) to be affected. Treatment‐emergent cardiac events were associated with a trend towards lower composite remission rates (43% vs. 62%; p = 0.09) and shorter survival (median 7.7 vs. 13.2 months; p < 0.01). These observations were retrospectively retrieved and warrant further prospective examination.

Abstract Venetoclax + hypomethylating agent (Ven‐HMA) is currently the standard frontline therapy for older/unfit patients with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (ND‐AML). Our objective in the current retrospective study of 301 adult patients (median age 73 years; 62% de novo) with ND‐AML was to identify molecular predictors of treatment response to Ven‐HMA and survival; European LeukemiaNet (ELN) genetic risk assignment was favorable 15%, intermediate 16%, and adverse 69%. Complete remission, with (CR) or without (CRi), count recovery, was documented in 182 (60%) patients. In multivariable analysis, inclusive of mutations only, “favorable” predictors of CR/CRi were NPM1 (86% vs. 56%), IDH2 (80% vs. 58%), and DDX41 (100% vs. 58%) and “unfavorable” TP53 (40% vs. 67%), FLT3‐ ITD (36% vs. 63%), and RUNX1 (44% vs. 64%) mutations; significance was sustained for each mutation after adjustment for age, karyotype, and therapy‐related qualification. CR/CRi rates ranged from 36%, in the presence of unfavorable and absence of favorable mutation, to 91%, in the presence of favorable and absence of unfavorable mutation. At median follow‐up of 8.5 months, 174 deaths and 41 allogeneic stem cell transplants (ASCT) were recorded. In multivariable analysis, risk factors for inferior survival included failure to achieve CR/CRi (HR 3.4, 95% CI 2.5–4.8), adverse karyotype (1.6, 1.1–2.6), TP53 mutation (1.6, 1.0–2.4), and absence of IDH2 mutation (2.2, 1.0–4.7); these risk factors were subsequently applied to construct an HR‐weighted risk model that performed better than the ELN genetic risk model (AIC 1661 vs. 1750): low ( n = 130; median survival 28.9 months), intermediate ( n = 105; median 9.6 months), and high ( n = 66; median 3.1 months; p < .001); survival in each risk category was significantly upgraded by ASCT. The current study identifies genotype signatures for predicting response and proposes a 3‐tiered, CR/CRi‐based, and genetics‐enhanced survival model for AML patients receiving upfront therapy with Ven‐HMA.