Cook, Mark J

Abstract Seizure forecasting has progressed from theoretical aspiration to a rapidly advancing research domain, yet clinical translation remains limited. Over the past decades, advances in algorithm development, chronic electroencephalography (EEG), wearable sensors, and the characterization of seizure cycles have demonstrated that seizure risk is not random but fluctuates according to identifiable biological rhythms and patient‐specific patterns. Forecasting algorithms have shown promising performance across diverse retrospective datasets, including intracranial EEG, subscalp recordings, wearable physiological signals, and even self‐reported diaries. However, the clinical value of forecasting is contentious. Prospective real‐world validation and regulatory approval of patient‐facing forecasting systems remain rare. This review incorporates perspectives presented at the 5th International Congress on Mobile Health and Digital Technology in Epilepsy (2025). We examine barriers impeding clinical translation and current attempts to address them. Crucially, forecasting performance cannot be evaluated in isolation from intended use. Applications range from low‐risk uses, like scheduling diagnostic monitoring or visualization of historical trends, to higher risk interventions, including medication titration and adaptive neuromodulation. Each application entails distinct performance thresholds, ethical considerations, and regulatory requirements. Translational challenges include reliable seizure annotation, nonstationarity dynamics of biological cycles, and practical constraints for real‐time deployment. Ethical concerns center on miscalibrated reliance on low‐risk states, potential anxiety associated with high‐risk advisories, and the heterogeneity of patient preferences and risk tolerance. Regulatory pathways are likely to depend on clearly defined use cases and clinically meaningful endpoints, which may extend beyond seizure counts to include quality of life, anxiety, locus of control, and other patient‐reported outcomes. Ultimately, translation will require rigorous prospective evaluation against transparent benchmarks, sustainable scientific–commercial partnerships, and integration of probabilistic risk information into clinical workflows. With careful implementation, seizure forecasting may evolve from proof‐of‐concept research into a clinically meaningful component of epilepsy management, and we remain cautiously optimistic.

Abstract The International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) has updated the operational classification of epileptic seizures, building upon the framework established in 2017. This revision, informed by the implementation experience, involved a working group appointed by the ILAE Executive Committee. Comprising 37 members from all ILAE regions, the group utilized a modified Delphi process, requiring a consensus threshold of more than two thirds for any proposal. Following public comments, the Executive Committee appointed seven additional experts to the revision task force to address and incorporate the issues raised, as appropriate. The updated classification maintains four main seizure classes: Focal, Generalized, Unknown (whether focal or generalized), and Unclassified. Taxonomic rules distinguish classifiers, which are considered to reflect biological classes and directly impact clinical management, from descriptors, which indicate other important seizure characteristics. Focal seizures and those of unknown origin are further classified by the patient's state of consciousness (impaired or preserved) during the seizure, defined operationally through clinical assessment of awareness and responsiveness. If the state of consciousness is undetermined, the seizure is classified under the parent term, that is, the main seizure class (focal seizure or seizure of unknown origin). Generalized seizures are grouped into absence seizures, generalized tonic–clonic seizures, and other generalized seizures, now including recognition of negative myoclonus as a seizure type. Seizures are described in the basic version as with or without observable manifestations, whereas an expanded version utilizes the chronological sequence of seizure semiology. This updated classification comprises four main classes and 21 seizure types. Special emphasis was placed on ensuring translatability into languages beyond English. Its aim is to establish a common language for all health care professionals involved in epilepsy care, from resource‐limited areas to highly specialized centers, and to provide accessible terms for patients and caregivers.

AbstractObjectiveVisual assessment of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from the Human Epilepsy Project 1 (HEP1) found 18% of participants had atrophic brain changes relative to age without known etiology. Here, we identify the underlying factors related to brain volume differences in people with focal epilepsy enrolled in HEP1.MethodsEnrollment data for participants with complete records and brain MRIs were analyzed, including 391 participants aged 12–60 years. HEP1 excluded developmental or cognitive delay with intelligence quotient <70, and participants reported any formal learning disability diagnoses, repeated grades, and remediation. Prediagnostic seizures were quantified by semiology, frequency, and duration. T1‐weighted brain MRIs were analyzed using Sequence Adaptive Multimodal Segmentation (FreeSurfer v7.2), from which a brain tissue volume to intracranial volume ratio was derived and compared to clinically relevant participant characteristics.ResultsBrain tissue volume changes observable on visual analyses were quantified, and a brain tissue volume to intracranial volume ratio was derived to compare with clinically relevant variables. Learning difficulties were associated with decreased brain tissue volume to intracranial volume, with a ratio reduction of .005 for each learning difficulty reported (95% confidence interval [CI] = −.007 to −.002, p = .0003). Each 10‐year increase in age at MRI was associated with a ratio reduction of .006 (95% CI = −.007 to −.005, p < .0001). For male participants, the ratio was .011 less than for female participants (95% CI = −.014 to −.007, p < .0001). There were no effects from seizures, employment, education, seizure semiology, or temporal lobe electroencephalographic abnormalities.SignificanceThis study shows lower brain tissue volume to intracranial volume in people with newly treated focal epilepsy and learning difficulties, suggesting developmental factors are an important marker of brain pathology related to neuroanatomical changes in focal epilepsy. Like the general population, there were also independent associations between brain volume, age, and sex in the study population.

Abstract Objective The factors that influence seizure timing are poorly understood, and seizure unpredictability remains a major cause of disability. Work in chronobiology has shown that cyclical physiological phenomena are ubiquitous, with daily and multiday cycles evident in immune, endocrine, metabolic, neurological, and cardiovascular function. Additionally, work with chronic brain recordings has identified that seizure risk is linked to daily and multiday cycles in brain activity. Here, we provide the first characterization of the relationships between the cyclical modulation of a diverse set of physiological signals, brain activity, and seizure timing. Methods In this cohort study, 14 subjects underwent chronic ambulatory monitoring with a multimodal wrist‐worn sensor (recording heart rate, accelerometry, electrodermal activity, and temperature) and an implanted responsive neurostimulation system (recording interictal epileptiform abnormalities and electrographic seizures). Wavelet and filter–Hilbert spectral analyses characterized circadian and multiday cycles in brain and wearable recordings. Circular statistics assessed electrographic seizure timing and cycles in physiology. Results Ten subjects met inclusion criteria. The mean recording duration was 232 days. Seven subjects had reliable electroencephalographic seizure detections (mean = 76 seizures). Multiday cycles were present in all wearable device signals across all subjects. Seizure timing was phase locked to multiday cycles in five (temperature), four (heart rate, phasic electrodermal activity), and three (accelerometry, heart rate variability, tonic electrodermal activity) subjects. Notably, after regression of behavioral covariates from heart rate, six of seven subjects had seizure phase locking to the residual heart rate signal. Significance Seizure timing is associated with daily and multiday cycles in multiple physiological processes. Chronic multimodal wearable device recordings can situate rare paroxysmal events, like seizures, within a broader chronobiology context of the individual. Wearable devices may advance the understanding of factors that influence seizure risk and enable personalized time‐varying approaches to epilepsy care.

AbstractTo date, the unpredictability of seizures remains a source of suffering for people with epilepsy, motivating decades of research into methods to forecast seizures. Originally, only few scientists and neurologists ventured into this niche endeavor, which, given the difficulty of the task, soon turned into a long and winding road. Over the past decade, however, our narrow field has seen a major acceleration, with trials of chronic electroencephalographic devices and the subsequent discovery of cyclical patterns in the occurrence of seizures. Now, a burgeoning science of seizure timing is emerging, which in turn informs best forecasting strategies for upcoming clinical trials. Although the finish line might be in view, many challenges remain to make seizure forecasting a reality. This review covers the most recent scientific, technical, and medical developments, discusses methodology in detail, and sets a number of goals for future studies.

Abstract Early implantable epilepsy therapy devices provided open-loop electrical stimulation without brain sensing, computing, or an interface for synchronized behavioural inputs from patients. Recent epilepsy stimulation devices provide brain sensing but have not yet developed analytics for accurately tracking and quantifying behaviour and seizures. Here we describe a distributed brain co-processor providing an intuitive bi-directional interface between patient, implanted neural stimulation and sensing device, and local and distributed computing resources. Automated analysis of continuous streaming electrophysiology is synchronized with patient reports using a handheld device and integrated with distributed cloud computing resources for quantifying seizures, interictal epileptiform spikes and patient symptoms during therapeutic electrical brain stimulation. The classification algorithms for interictal epileptiform spikes and seizures were developed and parameterized using long-term ambulatory data from nine humans and eight canines with epilepsy, and then implemented prospectively in out-of-sample testing in two pet canines and four humans with drug-resistant epilepsy living in their natural environments. Accurate seizure diaries are needed as the primary clinical outcome measure of epilepsy therapy and to guide brain-stimulation optimization. The brain co-processor system described here enables tracking interictal epileptiform spikes, seizures and correlation with patient behavioural reports. In the future, correlation of spikes and seizures with behaviour will allow more detailed investigation of the clinical impact of spikes and seizures on patients.

AbstractObjectiveMost seizure forecasting algorithms have relied on features specific to electroencephalographic recordings. Environmental and physiological factors, such as weather and sleep, have long been suspected to affect brain activity and seizure occurrence but have not been fully explored as prior information for seizure forecasts in a patient‐specific analysis. The study aimed to quantify whether sleep, weather, and temporal factors (time of day, day of week, and lunar phase) can provide predictive prior probabilities that may be used to improve seizure forecasts.MethodsThis study performed post hoc analysis on data from eight patients with a total of 12.2 years of continuous intracranial electroencephalographic recordings (average = 1.5 years, range = 1.0–2.1 years), originally collected in a prospective trial. Patients also had sleep scoring and location‐specific weather data. Histograms of future seizure likelihood were generated for each feature. The predictive utility of individual features was measured using a Bayesian approach to combine different features into an overall forecast of seizure likelihood. Performance of different feature combinations was compared using the area under the receiver operating curve. Performance evaluation was pseudoprospective.ResultsFor the eight patients studied, seizures could be predicted above chance accuracy using sleep (five patients), weather (two patients), and temporal features (six patients). Forecasts using combined features performed significantly better than chance in six patients. For four of these patients, combined forecasts outperformed any individual feature.SignificanceEnvironmental and physiological data, including sleep, weather, and temporal features, provide significant predictive information on upcoming seizures. Although forecasts did not perform as well as algorithms that use invasive intracranial electroencephalography, the results were significantly above chance. Complementary signal features derived from an individual's historic seizure records may provide useful prior information to augment traditional seizure detection or forecasting algorithms. Importantly, many predictive features used in this study can be measured noninvasively.

Abstract Noninvasive wearable devices have great potential to aid the management of epilepsy, but these devices must have robust signal quality, and patients must be willing to wear them for long periods of time. Automated machine learning classification of wearable biosensor signals requires quantitative measures of signal quality to automatically reject poor‐quality or corrupt data segments. In this study, commercially available wearable sensors were placed on patients with epilepsy undergoing in‐hospital or in‐home electroencephalographic (EEG) monitoring, and healthy volunteers. Empatica E4 and Biovotion Everion were used to record accelerometry (ACC), photoplethysmography (PPG), and electrodermal activity (EDA). Byteflies Sensor Dots were used to record ACC and PPG, the Activinsights GENEActiv watch to record ACC, and Epitel Epilog to record EEG data. PPG and EDA signals were recorded for multiple days, then epochs of high‐quality, marginal‐quality, or poor‐quality data were visually identified by reviewers, and reviewer annotations were compared to automated signal quality measures. For ACC, the ratio of spectral power from 0.8 to 5 Hz to broadband power was used to separate good‐quality signals from noise. For EDA, the rate of amplitude change and prevalence of sharp peaks significantly differentiated between good‐quality data and noise. Spectral entropy was used to assess PPG and showed significant differences between good‐, marginal‐, and poor‐quality signals. EEG data were evaluated using methods to identify a spectral noise cutoff frequency. Patients were asked to rate the usability and comfort of each device in several categories. Patients showed a significant preference for the wrist‐worn devices, and the Empatica E4 device was preferred most often. Current wearable devices can provide high‐quality data and are acceptable for routine use, but continued development is needed to improve data quality, consistency, and management, as well as acceptability to patients.