Sharma, Richa

Introduction: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is a clinical construct encompassing heterogenous possible mechanisms of incident stroke, potentially with variable responsiveness to anticoagulation and antiplatelet treatment. This study aims to identify differences in recurrent stroke risk based on phenotypic clusters in an ESUS population, and whether some clusters may benefit relatively more from anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy. Methods: We identified patient phenotypes from a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of 1909 ESUS patients by dividing them into groups using Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) with correlation-weighted Gower distance over 23 baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiographic, and cardiac features. We confirmed optimal clustering at 3 groups. We assessed cluster associations with time to recurrent stroke using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. We then employed a causal survival forest to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATE) of anticoagulation versus antiplatelet therapy using the same baseline features as predictors with a 365-day horizon for restricted mean survival time differences. Finally, we used best linear projection to identify baseline features predictive of treatment effect and assessed whether effects differed significantly by cluster. Results: Cluster 1 (n=542) identified a low-risk, younger sample with minimal baseline disability and comorbidity burden. Cluster 2 (n=743) comprised a moderate-risk phenotype with intermediate comorbidity. Cluster 3 (n=626) represented the oldest and highest-risk phenotype. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated significant differences in stroke-free survival across patient clusters (p < 0.001), where Cluster 1 experienced the lowest recurrent stroke rate and Cluster 3 had the highest. The clustering algorithm successfully identified clinically meaningful phenotypes with distinct risk profiles. While CATE varied across clusters, the differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: In a multicenter ESUS population, we identified 3 distinct phenotypic clusters, each comprising nearly one-third of the sample and with a differential risk of recurrent stroke. Although cluster was not a significant effect modifier, substantial CATE variability by cluster was observed. Future clinical trials may consider evaluating secondary stroke prevention therapies among phenotypically similar patients who may respond differentially to novel therapies.

Background: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) comprises infarct mechanisms presumed to be embolic and non-lacunar. One explanation for the lack of superiority of anticoagulation over aspirin is the inclusion of subcortical infarcts with white matter disease (WMD), reflecting small vessel pathology. We hypothesized that WMD is associated with recurrent ischemic stroke (RIS) in ESUS and this risk is not lessened by anticoagulation. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the multicenter Cardiac Abnormalities in Stroke Prevention and Recurrence (CASPR) registry, including ESUS patients from 27 U.S. centers (2015–2024). WMD severity was graded using the Fazekas scale from MRI and dichotomized as mild (0–1) vs. moderate-to-severe (2–3). The primary outcome was RIS. Secondary outcomes were major bleeding and all-cause mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) adjusted for baseline differences. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations between WMD and outcomes. Subgroup analyses explored effect modification by age, risk factors, and treatment type. Results: Among 1,890 ESUS patients with MRI data, 684 (36.2%) had Fazekas 2–3. These patients were older with more vascular risk factors, but IPTW achieved covariate balance. In the weighted cohort, RIS occurred more frequently in Fazekas 2–3 vs. 0–1 (7.1% vs. 4.6%/year; HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.10–2.22, p = 0.01). Major bleeding and mortality were similar (bleeding: 1.7% vs. 1.8%/yr, HR 0.96, p = 0.92; death: 7.0% vs. 6.7%/yr, HR 1.04, p = 0.81). Subgroup analyses showed no interaction between WMD and age, vascular risk factors, or treatment type (antiplatelet vs. anticoagulation), suggesting consistent RIS risk in those with higher WMD. Discussion: Moderate-to-severe WMD identifies ESUS patients at higher risk of ischemic stroke recurrence, with no mitigation by anticoagulation. These findings suggest that WMD may indicate non-embolic mechanisms and support the use of imaging-based risk stratification in ESUS.

Background: Although the embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) construct was proposed as a unifying concept for embolic-appearing strokes without an identified cause, it includes patients with diverse and often unrecognized underlying mechanisms. This study investigates the differential rate of recurrent stroke according to the completeness of neurodiagnostic testing in a diverse multicenter cohort. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of a multicenter observational cohort study (n=27 sites). Patients with ESUS were categorized into three groups: (1) established mechanism after further work up (ESUS-E), (2) patients who underwent a comprehensive diagnostic workup without an identified etiology (ESUS 2.0), and (3) no advanced workup (ESUS-NAW). The primary outcome of recurrent ischemic stroke was assessed by comparing ESUS 2.0 to both ESUS-E and ESUS-NAW groups using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the 2,281 patients included, 694 (30%) were classified as ESUS-E, 344 (15%) as ESUS 2.0, and 1,443 (55%) as ESUS-NAW. The ESUS 2.0 group had a significantly lower annualized recurrence rate (1.98 per 100 person-years) compared to both the ESUS-NAW group (7.7 per 100 person-years; aHR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11–0.62; p=0.002) and the ESUS-E group (6.10 per 100 person-years; aHR = 0.35; 95% CI 0.15–0.85, p=0.020). Within the ESUS-E group, cancer (aHR 5.33; 95% CI: 2.09–13.63; p < 0.001) and non-stenosing atherosclerotic disease or arch atheroma (aHR 3.40; 95% CI: 1.18–9.83; p = 0.023) were associated with significantly increased risk of recurrence when compared to ESUS 2.0. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate a lower risk of recurrent stroke in patients classified as ESUS 2.0, diverging from the 5–6% annual recurrence rates observed in prior ESUS trials. These findings suggest that patients who receive comprehensive diagnostic evaluation without identification of a specific etiology have a lower risk of recurrent stroke, an important consideration for the design of future ESUS studies.