Eklund, Kelsey

BACKGROUND: Left ventricular (LV) dysfunction is a potential cardioembolic source of ischemic stroke, but its role in recurrent stroke risk and treatment response remains unclear. We explore whether LV injury associates with the risk of recurrent stroke and modifies the association between anticoagulation and stroke recurrence using real-world data. METHODS: We performed a multicenter, retrospective study of Cardiac Abnormalities in Stroke Prevention and Recurrence cohort across 27 US sites. Patients with LV ejection fraction ≥20% were included. LV injury, defined as LV ejection fraction 20% to 40% and wall motion abnormality, was the primary exposure and treatment effect modifier. The treatment of interest was anticoagulant versus antiplatelet therapy. The composite outcome included recurrent stroke, major bleeding, or death. Outcomes were evaluated using unadjusted and inverse probability weighting adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, with treatment effect modification tested by LV injury status. RESULTS: Among 2685 patients enrolled, 2328 with complete data were analyzed (median age, 65 years; 49.8% female; median follow-up, 1.6 years). LV injury was present in 310 patients (13.3%). Overall, 535 events occurred: 258 recurrent ischemic strokes, 28 hemorrhagic strokes, 67 major hemorrhages, and 256 deaths. LV injury was associated with a higher unadjusted risk of the primary outcome (hazard ratio [HR], 1.51 [95% CI, 1.21–1.87]), though nonsignificant after inverse probability weighting adjustment (adjusted HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 0.97–1.70]). In the LV injury subgroup, anticoagulation versus antiplatelet therapy was associated with a lower risk of the primary outcome (adjusted HR, 0.24 [95% CI, 0.10–0.59]), relative to the non-LV injury subgroup (adjusted HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 0.83–1.95]; p[LV-interaction], 0.001). Similar interactions were seen for EF 20% to 40% (versus >40%; adjusted HR, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.04–0.86]; p[LV-interaction], 0.001) and wall motion abnormality (versus no wall motion abnormality; adjusted HR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.15–0.73]). CONCLUSIONS: After cryptogenic stroke, anticoagulation in those with LV injury was associated with lower rates of recurrent stroke, major bleeding, and death. These findings warrant confirmation in a dedicated randomized controlled trial. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT06398366.

Introduction: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) is a clinical construct encompassing heterogenous possible mechanisms of incident stroke, potentially with variable responsiveness to anticoagulation and antiplatelet treatment. This study aims to identify differences in recurrent stroke risk based on phenotypic clusters in an ESUS population, and whether some clusters may benefit relatively more from anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy. Methods: We identified patient phenotypes from a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of 1909 ESUS patients by dividing them into groups using Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) with correlation-weighted Gower distance over 23 baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiographic, and cardiac features. We confirmed optimal clustering at 3 groups. We assessed cluster associations with time to recurrent stroke using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. We then employed a causal survival forest to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATE) of anticoagulation versus antiplatelet therapy using the same baseline features as predictors with a 365-day horizon for restricted mean survival time differences. Finally, we used best linear projection to identify baseline features predictive of treatment effect and assessed whether effects differed significantly by cluster. Results: Cluster 1 (n=542) identified a low-risk, younger sample with minimal baseline disability and comorbidity burden. Cluster 2 (n=743) comprised a moderate-risk phenotype with intermediate comorbidity. Cluster 3 (n=626) represented the oldest and highest-risk phenotype. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated significant differences in stroke-free survival across patient clusters (p < 0.001), where Cluster 1 experienced the lowest recurrent stroke rate and Cluster 3 had the highest. The clustering algorithm successfully identified clinically meaningful phenotypes with distinct risk profiles. While CATE varied across clusters, the differences were not statistically significant. Conclusion: In a multicenter ESUS population, we identified 3 distinct phenotypic clusters, each comprising nearly one-third of the sample and with a differential risk of recurrent stroke. Although cluster was not a significant effect modifier, substantial CATE variability by cluster was observed. Future clinical trials may consider evaluating secondary stroke prevention therapies among phenotypically similar patients who may respond differentially to novel therapies.

Background: Embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) comprises infarct mechanisms presumed to be embolic and non-lacunar. One explanation for the lack of superiority of anticoagulation over aspirin is the inclusion of subcortical infarcts with white matter disease (WMD), reflecting small vessel pathology. We hypothesized that WMD is associated with recurrent ischemic stroke (RIS) in ESUS and this risk is not lessened by anticoagulation. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the multicenter Cardiac Abnormalities in Stroke Prevention and Recurrence (CASPR) registry, including ESUS patients from 27 U.S. centers (2015–2024). WMD severity was graded using the Fazekas scale from MRI and dichotomized as mild (0–1) vs. moderate-to-severe (2–3). The primary outcome was RIS. Secondary outcomes were major bleeding and all-cause mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) adjusted for baseline differences. Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations between WMD and outcomes. Subgroup analyses explored effect modification by age, risk factors, and treatment type. Results: Among 1,890 ESUS patients with MRI data, 684 (36.2%) had Fazekas 2–3. These patients were older with more vascular risk factors, but IPTW achieved covariate balance. In the weighted cohort, RIS occurred more frequently in Fazekas 2–3 vs. 0–1 (7.1% vs. 4.6%/year; HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.10–2.22, p = 0.01). Major bleeding and mortality were similar (bleeding: 1.7% vs. 1.8%/yr, HR 0.96, p = 0.92; death: 7.0% vs. 6.7%/yr, HR 1.04, p = 0.81). Subgroup analyses showed no interaction between WMD and age, vascular risk factors, or treatment type (antiplatelet vs. anticoagulation), suggesting consistent RIS risk in those with higher WMD. Discussion: Moderate-to-severe WMD identifies ESUS patients at higher risk of ischemic stroke recurrence, with no mitigation by anticoagulation. These findings suggest that WMD may indicate non-embolic mechanisms and support the use of imaging-based risk stratification in ESUS.

Background: Although the embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) construct was proposed as a unifying concept for embolic-appearing strokes without an identified cause, it includes patients with diverse and often unrecognized underlying mechanisms. This study investigates the differential rate of recurrent stroke according to the completeness of neurodiagnostic testing in a diverse multicenter cohort. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of a multicenter observational cohort study (n=27 sites). Patients with ESUS were categorized into three groups: (1) established mechanism after further work up (ESUS-E), (2) patients who underwent a comprehensive diagnostic workup without an identified etiology (ESUS 2.0), and (3) no advanced workup (ESUS-NAW). The primary outcome of recurrent ischemic stroke was assessed by comparing ESUS 2.0 to both ESUS-E and ESUS-NAW groups using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the 2,281 patients included, 694 (30%) were classified as ESUS-E, 344 (15%) as ESUS 2.0, and 1,443 (55%) as ESUS-NAW. The ESUS 2.0 group had a significantly lower annualized recurrence rate (1.98 per 100 person-years) compared to both the ESUS-NAW group (7.7 per 100 person-years; aHR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11–0.62; p=0.002) and the ESUS-E group (6.10 per 100 person-years; aHR = 0.35; 95% CI 0.15–0.85, p=0.020). Within the ESUS-E group, cancer (aHR 5.33; 95% CI: 2.09–13.63; p < 0.001) and non-stenosing atherosclerotic disease or arch atheroma (aHR 3.40; 95% CI: 1.18–9.83; p = 0.023) were associated with significantly increased risk of recurrence when compared to ESUS 2.0. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate a lower risk of recurrent stroke in patients classified as ESUS 2.0, diverging from the 5–6% annual recurrence rates observed in prior ESUS trials. These findings suggest that patients who receive comprehensive diagnostic evaluation without identification of a specific etiology have a lower risk of recurrent stroke, an important consideration for the design of future ESUS studies.

Background Intracranial occlusions in embolic stroke of undetermined source are histopathologically similar to cardiac sources of embolism. Whether patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and intracranial occlusion benefit from anticoagulation is unknown. Methods A multicenter retrospective cohort of adults with cryptogenic stroke was queried for patients with proximal or medium/distal vessel occlusion. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke, which was assessed in unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and repeated following 1:1 propensity score matching and biweight kernel density matching. Results Of the 2328 patients who were followed over a median of 1.31 years (interquartile range, 0.34–2.85), 999 (42.6%) had an intracranial occlusion. When compared with patients without an intracranial occlusion, those with an occlusion had fewer atherosclerotic vascular risk factors, more severe symptoms, and less severe cerebral microvascular disease. The rate of recurrent stroke was similar between patients with versus without an intracranial occlusion (6.8%/year [95% CI, 5.7–8.2] versus 7.0%/year [95% CI 6.0–8.1]; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.09 [95% CI, 0.77–1.55]). There was no association between occlusion and recurrent stroke in the adjusted propensity score matching (HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.64–1.59]) or kernel density models (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.62–1.45]). There was no interaction between occlusion and treatment with anticoagulation, sex, age, or high‐risk sources of embolism for the primary outcome in the unmatched and matched analyses. Conclusions Intracranial occlusion in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source is not associated with a greater risk of recurrence when compared with patients without an intracranial occlusion. There was no difference in rate of recurrent stroke with anticoagulation when stratified by presence or absence of occlusion.

Introduction: Four randomized clinical trials have not demonstrated the superiority of anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy in the prevention of recurrent embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). In this multicenter observational cohort study, we evaluated long-term outcomes associated with various antithrombotic strategies according to potential embolic sources. Methods: A multicenter retrospective observational cohort of consecutive adult patients with ESUS was queried (n=27 sites). Comparisons were made between patients treated with single or combination antiplatelet therapy versus anticoagulation (direct oral anticoagulant, vitamin K antagonist, low molecular weight heparin) with or without antiplatelet therapy initiated within 7 days of stroke. The primary composite outcome of recurrent stroke, major bleeding, or death was assessed using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression, with clustering by site. Causal inference was assessed using inverse probability of treatment weighted regression adjustment (IPTWRA), accounting for propensity for antiplatelet treatment, with effect estimates summarized as the average treatment effect (ATE) over time (in days). Adjusted models accounted for age, stroke severity, vascular risk factors, and major categories of potential embolic sources. Results: Of the 2201 included patients (n=218 treated with anticoagulation) followed over a median of 564 days (interquartile range [IQR] 154-1124), the median age was 65y (IQR 54-74) and 49.8% were female. Patients treated with anticoagulation were older with more frequent previous stroke, concomitant left ventricular dysfunction, and more severe deficits. Over 4541 person-years of follow-up, the annualized incidence rate of the primary outcome was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.6%-15.8%). Compared to anticoagulation, antiplatelet(s) use was not associated with a lower risk of the primary outcome in the adjusted Cox model (HR 0.91, 95% CI, 0.64-1.29) or in the IPTWRA model (average treatment effect 0.14, 95% CI, -1376.6 to 1376.9). Major bleeding events trended toward significance in the adjusted Cox model (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.25-1.04) but were no different with IPTWRA (ATE 58.9, 95% CI, -125.4 to 243.2). Conclusions: These results validate the observations of randomized trials indicating a lack of benefit of anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy in ESUS. A more detailed analysis of heterogeneity of treatment effect is under way.

Background: It is known that there are discrepancies between insurance status and access to care for a variety of health conditions. In addition, differences have been shown in initial in-hospital management of stroke as well as outcomes in the acute setting. We sought to examine the relationship between insurance status and risk of recurrent stroke, major bleeding or death following an incident cryptogenic stroke. Methods: Patients with cryptogenic stroke included in a multicenter (n=27 sites) retrospective observational cohort and complete insurance status were evaluated for a primary composite outcome of recurrent stroke, major bleeding, or death. Insurance providers were categorized by Private/Veterans Administration, Medicare, Other, and Medicaid/pending/None, with the primary carrier ranked in that order when multiple insurance carriers applied. Descriptive statistics and an adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression were used to associate the primary insurance provider with the composite outcome, and with each unique secondary outcome, adjusting for age, stroke severity, pre-stroke disability, atherosclerotic risk factors, and potential embolic sources (e.g., patent foramen ovale). Results: Of the 2201 patients, 2006 (91.1%) had reported insurance information and were followed for a median of 1.50 years (interquartile range [IQR 0.41 - 2.99y]). The majority of patients were primary Medicare beneficiaries (42.3%), followed by private insurance (36.7%), Medicaid/none (18.1%) and Other (2.9%). Although there were important differences in demographic and neurodiagnostic results across insurance groups, compared to Private/VA beneficiaries, beneficiaries for Medicaid/pending/none had a higher rate of the composite outcome in adjusted regression (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.69) which was driven largely by the higher rate of recurrent stroke (adjusted HR 1.33, 95%CI, 1.02-1.73) with no significant difference in rate of major bleeding or death (p>0.05 for both). Conclusions: Independent of age, race, pre-existing disability, and atherosclerotic risk factors, insurance status was independently predictive of recurrent stroke in this diverse cohort of cryptogenic stroke.

Introduction: Malignancy represents an important subgroup of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). We aim to compare infarct features, potential embolic sources, and long-term outcomes in ESUS patients with and without malignancy. Methods: In this pre-specified secondary analysis of the Cardiac Abnormalities in Stroke Prevention and Recurrence (CASPR) retrospective cohort study, active cancers were identified by site investigators and adjudicated as malignant if they were non-squamous or non-basal cell skin cancers. We compared the prevalence of various potential embolic sources (e.g., patent foramen ovale, left ventricular dysfunction, post-stroke atrial fibrillation) among patients with and without malignancy. The risk of recurrent stroke, major bleeding, or death was evaluated using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, accounting for age, sex, vascular risk factors, competing potential embolic sources, and initial treatment with anticoagulation versus non-anticoagulant (e.g., antiplatelet) regimen. Results: Of the 2201 patients followed over a median of 564 days, 236 (10.7%) were diagnosed with cancer at the time of stroke. Patients with malignancy were older, more frequently hypertensive and did not differ with regards to prevalence of specific infarct patterns or potential cardiac embolic sources. No difference was observed in the composite outcome of recurrent stroke, major bleeding, or death (adjusted HR 1.02, 95% CI, 0.71-1.46). Age (adjusted HR per year 1.02, 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), baseline stroke severity (adjusted HR 1.03 per NIHSS point, 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), prior stroke (adjusted HR 1.68, 95% CI, 1.38-2.05), and multi-territorial infarct pattern (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.33-2.08) were significantly associated with this composite outcome, but anticoagulation was not. There was a nominally lower rate of major bleeding with malignancy (adjusted HR 0.45, 95% CI, 0.19-1.04), a significantly higher rate of death (adjusted HR 1.58, 95% CI, 1.09-2.30), but no significant difference in recurrent ischemic stroke (p=0.31). Conclusions: Patients with malignancy and ESUS had higher mortality but did not differ in recurrent stroke risk or major bleeding when compared to patients without malignancy. Anticoagulation was not independently associated with better outcomes. Further analysis of infarct topology and risk factors may better identify patients for whom anticoagulation may benefit.