Chahien, Dalia

Background: High-grade intracranial atherosclerosis (ICAS) is associated with an elevated risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, particularly in patients with severe stenosis (70–99%). Identifying predictors of early recurrence can inform risk stratification and guide treatment strategies. Methods: The Biomarkers and Recurrence Risk in Symptomatic Intracranial Arterial Stenosis (BIORISK-ICAS) study is a multicenter, international, retrospective cohort analysis pooling data from 35 comprehensive stroke centers. We included hospitalized adult patients with symptomatic ICAS, defined as 50–99% stenosis of an intracranial artery (intracranial vertebral, basilar, distal ICA, or M1 MCA), confirmed by vascular imaging and associated with a qualifying ischemic event. Patients with only high-grade stenosis (70-99%) were included in this analysis. The primary outcome was to determine predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke in the territory of the symptomatic artery within 90 days of the index event. Baseline demographic, clinical, and imaging characteristics were recorded. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression with stepwise selection (p < 0.1) was used to identify independent predictors of recurrence; model discrimination was assessed using Harrell’s C-statistics. Results: Among 2,050 patients, 1,476 had high-grade (70-99%) symptomatic ICAS. The mean age was 67 ± 12.5 years, and 767 (55%) were male. Most patients were non-Hispanic (90.1%), taking dual antiplatelet therapy (77.8%), and statins (94.5%). Recurrent stroke occurred in 160 patients (10.8%) within 90 days. In multivariable Cox model, independent predictors of recurrence included atrial fibrillation (HR 2.05; 95% CI, 1.26–3.33; p = 0.004), hyperlipidemia (HR 1.57; 95% CI, 1.10–2.24; p = 0.014), diabetes mellitus (HR 1.36; 95% CI, 0.98–1.88; p = 0.064), and home use of dual antiplatelet therapy (HR 1.60; 95% CI, 1.01–2.54; p = 0.043)(Harrell’s C-statistic=0.62). In patients who underwent perfusion(n=402), mistmatch >10seconds were associated with increased recurrence (HR 1.80; 95% CI 0.95-3.38, p=0.07) and atrial fibrillation (HR 2.06: 95% CI 0.03-4.60, p=0.78) though did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: In this population, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, and prior use of dual antiplatelet therapy were associated with increased risk of 90-day recurrent ischemic stroke. Perfusion imaging may help identify high-risk patients who could benefit from intensified secondary prevention.

Background: Although the embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) construct was proposed as a unifying concept for embolic-appearing strokes without an identified cause, it includes patients with diverse and often unrecognized underlying mechanisms. This study investigates the differential rate of recurrent stroke according to the completeness of neurodiagnostic testing in a diverse multicenter cohort. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of a multicenter observational cohort study (n=27 sites). Patients with ESUS were categorized into three groups: (1) established mechanism after further work up (ESUS-E), (2) patients who underwent a comprehensive diagnostic workup without an identified etiology (ESUS 2.0), and (3) no advanced workup (ESUS-NAW). The primary outcome of recurrent ischemic stroke was assessed by comparing ESUS 2.0 to both ESUS-E and ESUS-NAW groups using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the 2,281 patients included, 694 (30%) were classified as ESUS-E, 344 (15%) as ESUS 2.0, and 1,443 (55%) as ESUS-NAW. The ESUS 2.0 group had a significantly lower annualized recurrence rate (1.98 per 100 person-years) compared to both the ESUS-NAW group (7.7 per 100 person-years; aHR 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11–0.62; p=0.002) and the ESUS-E group (6.10 per 100 person-years; aHR = 0.35; 95% CI 0.15–0.85, p=0.020). Within the ESUS-E group, cancer (aHR 5.33; 95% CI: 2.09–13.63; p < 0.001) and non-stenosing atherosclerotic disease or arch atheroma (aHR 3.40; 95% CI: 1.18–9.83; p = 0.023) were associated with significantly increased risk of recurrence when compared to ESUS 2.0. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate a lower risk of recurrent stroke in patients classified as ESUS 2.0, diverging from the 5–6% annual recurrence rates observed in prior ESUS trials. These findings suggest that patients who receive comprehensive diagnostic evaluation without identification of a specific etiology have a lower risk of recurrent stroke, an important consideration for the design of future ESUS studies.

Background Intracranial occlusions in embolic stroke of undetermined source are histopathologically similar to cardiac sources of embolism. Whether patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source and intracranial occlusion benefit from anticoagulation is unknown. Methods A multicenter retrospective cohort of adults with cryptogenic stroke was queried for patients with proximal or medium/distal vessel occlusion. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke, which was assessed in unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models and repeated following 1:1 propensity score matching and biweight kernel density matching. Results Of the 2328 patients who were followed over a median of 1.31 years (interquartile range, 0.34–2.85), 999 (42.6%) had an intracranial occlusion. When compared with patients without an intracranial occlusion, those with an occlusion had fewer atherosclerotic vascular risk factors, more severe symptoms, and less severe cerebral microvascular disease. The rate of recurrent stroke was similar between patients with versus without an intracranial occlusion (6.8%/year [95% CI, 5.7–8.2] versus 7.0%/year [95% CI 6.0–8.1]; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.09 [95% CI, 0.77–1.55]). There was no association between occlusion and recurrent stroke in the adjusted propensity score matching (HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.64–1.59]) or kernel density models (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.62–1.45]). There was no interaction between occlusion and treatment with anticoagulation, sex, age, or high‐risk sources of embolism for the primary outcome in the unmatched and matched analyses. Conclusions Intracranial occlusion in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source is not associated with a greater risk of recurrence when compared with patients without an intracranial occlusion. There was no difference in rate of recurrent stroke with anticoagulation when stratified by presence or absence of occlusion.

Background: Multiple randomized clinical trials failed to show benefit of anticoagulation over antiplatelets in the secondary prevention for embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). However, the benefit of combination antithrombotic regimens remains unexplored in the same patient population. Methods: This is a subgroup analysis of a multicenter retrospective observational cohort of consecutive adult patients with ESUS (n=27 sites, 2015-2024). Comparisons were made between patients treated with single (SAPT) or dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), exclusive anticoagulation (AC) (direct oral anticoagulant, vitamin K antagonist, low molecular weight heparin) and combination anticoagulation and antiplatelet therapy initiated within the first 7 days of index stroke. The primary composite outcome of recurrent ischemic stroke, major bleeding, or death was assessed using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Secondary outcomes were individual outcomes of recurrent ischemic stroke, major bleeding, or death. Results: Of the 2201 included patients, 1456 (66.1%) were on SAPT, 527 (23.9%) were on DAPT, 195 (8.8%) were on exclusive AC and 23 (1.0%) were on AC+AP (all of which were on DAPT). Patients treated with AC+AP were older (median 66 years [IQR 51-78]), more likely to have history of hypertension, stroke, hyperlipidemia, PFO and left atrial enlargement. Compared to SAPT, all treatment strategies were associated with similar risk of the primary outcomes in the unadjusted and adjusted cox regression. Similarly, there was no difference in individual outcomes including recurrent stroke, major bleeding and death in the adjusted cox regression. However, there was an increased risk of major bleeding with AC+AP in the unadjusted cox regression (HR 4.0, [95% CI 1.2-12.8], p=0.02) but not in the adjusted model when compared to SAPT. Also, DAPT was associated with lower risk of death than SAPT in the unadjusted model (HR 0.61 [95% CI 0.4-0.8],p=0.005) but not the adjusted model. Additionally, when adjusted by the HASBLED score, there was no difference in major bleeding when AC+AP was compared to SAPT. Conclusion: Over 90% of ESUS patients in this cohort were prescribed SAPT or DAPT. Antithrombotic therapy with DAPT, exclusive AC, or AC+AP was not associated with any lower risk of recurrent ischemic stroke, major bleeding and death compared with SAPT in an unselected cohort of ESUS patients.

Introduction: Four randomized clinical trials have not demonstrated the superiority of anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy in the prevention of recurrent embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS). In this multicenter observational cohort study, we evaluated long-term outcomes associated with various antithrombotic strategies according to potential embolic sources. Methods: A multicenter retrospective observational cohort of consecutive adult patients with ESUS was queried (n=27 sites). Comparisons were made between patients treated with single or combination antiplatelet therapy versus anticoagulation (direct oral anticoagulant, vitamin K antagonist, low molecular weight heparin) with or without antiplatelet therapy initiated within 7 days of stroke. The primary composite outcome of recurrent stroke, major bleeding, or death was assessed using unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression, with clustering by site. Causal inference was assessed using inverse probability of treatment weighted regression adjustment (IPTWRA), accounting for propensity for antiplatelet treatment, with effect estimates summarized as the average treatment effect (ATE) over time (in days). Adjusted models accounted for age, stroke severity, vascular risk factors, and major categories of potential embolic sources. Results: Of the 2201 included patients (n=218 treated with anticoagulation) followed over a median of 564 days (interquartile range [IQR] 154-1124), the median age was 65y (IQR 54-74) and 49.8% were female. Patients treated with anticoagulation were older with more frequent previous stroke, concomitant left ventricular dysfunction, and more severe deficits. Over 4541 person-years of follow-up, the annualized incidence rate of the primary outcome was 14.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.6%-15.8%). Compared to anticoagulation, antiplatelet(s) use was not associated with a lower risk of the primary outcome in the adjusted Cox model (HR 0.91, 95% CI, 0.64-1.29) or in the IPTWRA model (average treatment effect 0.14, 95% CI, -1376.6 to 1376.9). Major bleeding events trended toward significance in the adjusted Cox model (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.25-1.04) but were no different with IPTWRA (ATE 58.9, 95% CI, -125.4 to 243.2). Conclusions: These results validate the observations of randomized trials indicating a lack of benefit of anticoagulation over antiplatelet therapy in ESUS. A more detailed analysis of heterogeneity of treatment effect is under way.

Background and Objectives: Acute small subcortical infarcts (SSI) result in high rates of early neurological deterioration (END) despite best medical management. Those with SSI-related END have worse functional outcomes after stroke leading to increased morbidity. Presently, it is unknown in a robust manner the incidence or risk factors for END within this demographic. The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to understand the incidence and risk factors of SSI-related END. Methods: We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar between January 1, 2000, and June 1, 2022, including both retrospective cross-sectional and prospective observational studies. The primary outcome was development of END based on publishing authors’ definition. Abstracted data included age, sex, cohort size, diagnoses of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, study definition of END and SSI, and presence of branch atheromatous disease (BAD) and lesion diameter. Results: We identified 31 studies enrolling 6376 patients. Most studies were conducted in East Asia (27/31, 87%) and had a least some concern for risk of bias. Funnel plot illustrated a high level of publication bias favoring high incidence studies. END was commonly defined as ≥ 2 overall NIHSS change or ≥ 1 motor change within 3 to 7 days from admission (average: 5 days). A pooled proportion of END was 22% (95%CI 0.19 - 0.25, I2 = 91.2%, 31 studies). Meta-regression identified that female sex [risk ratio (RR) 1.23, 95%CI 1.09-1.39, I2=30.8%, 31 studies], diabetes mellitus (RR 1.16 95%CI 1.01-1.33, I2=38.4%, 30 studies), and BAD (RR 1.99 95%CI 1.61-2.46, I2=50.7%, 17 studies) as risk factors for END. Discussion: Our data identified primarily within an East Asian cohort that risk factors for SSI-related END include diabetes mellitus and branch atheromatous disease with a pooled prevalence of END occurring in 1 in 4 patients. Future studies are needed to understand treatment and preventative strategies for this patient population.