Steyerberg, Ewout W.

Abstract Background This study aimed to assess the performance of currently available risk calculators in a cohort of patients with malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) and to create an MPNST-specific prognostic model including type-specific predictors for overall survival (OS). Methods This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study of patients with MPNST from 11 secondary or tertiary centers in The Netherlands, Italy and the United States of America. All patients diagnosed with primary MPNST who underwent macroscopically complete surgical resection from 2000 to 2019 were included in this study. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model for OS was estimated with prespecified predictors (age, grade, size, NF-1 status, triton status, depth, tumor location, and surgical margin). Model performance was assessed for the Sarculator and PERSARC calculators by examining discrimination (C-index) and calibration (calibration plots and observed-expected statistic; O/E-statistic). Internal–external cross-validation by different regions was performed to evaluate the generalizability of the model. Results A total of 507 patients with primary MPNSTs were included from 11 centers in 7 regions. During follow-up (median 8.7 years), 211 patients died. The C-index was 0.60 (95% CI 0.53–0.67) for both Sarculator and PERSARC. The MPNST-specific model had a pooled C-index of 0.69 (95%CI 0.65–0.73) at validation, with adequate discrimination and calibration across regions. Conclusions The MPNST-specific MONACO model can be used to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS in patients with primary MPNST who underwent macroscopically complete surgical resection. Further validation may refine the model to inform patients and physicians on prognosis and support them in shared decision-making.

Abstract Aims Indications for surgery in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) are increasingly liberal in all clinical guidelines but the role of secondary outcome determinants (left atrial volume index ≥60 mL/m2, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary artery systolic pressure ≥50 mmHg and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation) and their impact on post-operative outcome remain disputed. Whether these secondary outcome markers are just reflective of the DMR severity or intrinsically affect survival after DMR surgery is uncertain and may have critical importance in the management of patients with DMR. To address these gaps of knowledge the present study gathered a large cohort of patients with quantified DMR, accounted for the number of secondary outcome markers and examined their independent impact on survival after surgical correction of the DMR. Methods and results The Mitral Regurgitation International DAtabase-Quantitative registry includes patients with isolated DMR from centres across North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Patient enrolment extended from January 2003 to January 2020. All patients undergoing mitral valve surgery within 1 year of registry enrolment were selected. A total of 2276 patients [65 (55–73) years, 32% male] across five centres met study eligibility criteria. Over a median follow-up of 5.6 (3.6 to 8.7) years, 278 patients (12.2%) died. In a comprehensive multivariable Cox regression model adjusted for age, EuroSCORE II, symptoms, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LV ESD) and DMR severity, the number of secondary outcome determinants was independently associated with post-operative all-cause mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–2.20, P = 0.011], 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23–2.58, P = 0.002) and 2.58 (95% CI: 1.73–3.83, P < 0.0001) for patients with one, two, and three or four secondary outcome determinants, respectively. A model incorporating the number of secondary outcome determinants demonstrated a higher C-index and was significantly more concordant with post-operative mortality than models incorporating traditional Class I indications alone [the presence of symptoms (P = 0.0003), or LVEF ≤60% (P = 0.006), or LV ESD ≥40 mm (P = 0.014)], while there was no significant difference in concordance observed compared with a model that incorporated the number of Class I indications for surgery combined (P = 0.71). Conclusion In this large cohort of patients treated surgically for DMR, the presence and number of secondary outcome determinants was independently associated with post-surgical survival and demonstrated better outcome discrimination than traditional Class I indications for surgery. Randomised controlled trials are needed to determine if patients with severe DMR who demonstrate a cardiac phenotype with an increasing number of secondary outcome determinants would benefit from earlier surgery.

Background— There is a paucity of data on the use of optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with complex coronary artery disease undergoing revascularization with percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and its long-term prognostic significance. Methods and Results— The Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With TAXUS and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX) trial is a multicenter, randomized, clinical trial of patients (n=1800) with complex coronary disease randomized to revascularization with percutaneous coronary intervention or CABG. Detailed drug history was collected for all patients at discharge and at the 1-month, 6-month, 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year follow-ups. OMT was defined as the combination of at least 1 antiplatelet drug, statin, β-blocker, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker. Five-year clinical outcomes were stratified by OMT and non-OMT. OMT was underused in patients treated with coronary revascularization, especially CABG. OMT was an independent predictor of survival. OMT was associated with a significant reduction in mortality (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.48–0.85; P =0.002) and composite end point of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.58–0.92; P =0.007) at the 5-year follow-up. The treatment effect with OMT (36% relative reduction in mortality over 5 years) was greater than the treatment effect of revascularization strategy (26% relative reduction in mortality with CABG versus percutaneous coronary intervention over 5 years). On stratified analysis, all the components of OMT were important for reducing adverse outcomes regardless of revascularization strategy. Conclusions— The use of OMT remains low in patients with complex coronary disease requiring coronary intervention with percutaneous coronary intervention and even lower in patients treated with CABG. Lack of OMT is associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Targeted strategies to improve OMT use in postrevascularization patients are warranted. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00114972.

Background Lynch syndrome is caused by germline mismatch repair (MMR) gene mutations. The PREMM 1,2,6 model predicts the likelihood of a MMR gene mutation based on personal and family cancer history. Objective To compare strategies using PREMM 1,2,6 and tumour testing (microsatellite instability (MSI) and/or immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining) to identify mutation carriers. Design Data from population-based or clinic-based patients with colorectal cancers enrolled through the Colon Cancer Family Registry were analysed. Evaluation included MSI, IHC and germline mutation analysis for MLH1 , MSH2 , MSH6 and PMS2 . Personal and family cancer histories were used to calculate PREMM 1,2,6 predictions. Discriminative ability to identify carriers from non-carriers using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was assessed. Predictions were based on logistic regression models for (1) cancer assessment using PREMM 1,2,6 , (2) MSI, (3) IHC for loss of any MMR protein expression, (4) MSI+IHC, (5) PREMM 1,2,6 +MSI, (6) PREMM 1,2,6 +IHC, (7) PREMM 1,2,6 +IHC+MSI. Results Among 1651 subjects, 239 (14%) had mutations (90 MLH1 , 125 MSH2 , 24 MSH6 ). PREMM 1,2,6 discriminated well with AUC 0.90 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.92). MSI alone, IHC alone, or MSI+IHC each had lower AUCs: 0.77, 0.82 and 0.82, respectively. The added value of IHC+PREMM 1,2,6 was slightly greater than PREMM 1,2,6 +MSI (AUC 0.94 vs 0.93). Adding MSI to PREMM 1,2,6 +IHC did not improve discrimination. Conclusion PREMM 1,2,6 and IHC showed excellent performance in distinguishing mutation carriers from non-carriers and performed best when combined. MSI may have a greater role in distinguishing Lynch syndrome from other familial colorectal cancer subtypes among cases with high PREMM 1,2,6 scores where genetic evaluation does not disclose a MMR mutation.