Osinski, Kristen

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in cancer survivors. Predicting CVD risk in this population remains challenging. Risk prediction models that use machine learning algorithms could provide an objective method for accurate risk prediction to facilitate the prevention and management of CVD in cancer survivors. We evaluated previously tested machine learning algorithms and logistic regression (regularized by machine learning methods), in addition to testing and validating newer, more complex machine learning algorithms, for CVD prediction in cancer survivors. Methods This multicenter study used a database of 3835 multiracial cancer survivors with 89 clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic features over 20 years. Models were trained using repeated random and time‐split samples and tested on a separate cohort of 329 patients. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Regularized logistic regression achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.845 (heart failure), 0.783 (atrial fibrillation), 0.792 (coronary artery disease), and 0.806 (composite CVD). These are comparable to 0.837 and 0.848 for heart failure, using Bayesian additive regression tree and random forest as more advanced machine learning models, respectively. De novo composite CVD (post‐cancer diagnosis) was also predicted with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.826 using regularized logistic regression, compared with 0.735 and 0.802 using decision tree and random forest, respectively. Conclusions Regularized logistic regression and advanced machine learning models demonstrated similar predictive performance, with institutional transferability. These tools may support risk stratification and prevention strategies in cardio‐oncology using longitudinal data. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT05377320.

BACKGROUND Previous epidemiologic studies of autoimmune diseases in the US have included a limited number of diseases or used metaanalyses that rely on different data collection methods and analyses for each disease. METHODS To estimate the prevalence of autoimmune diseases in the US, we used electronic health record data from 6 large medical systems in the US. We developed a software program using common methodology to compute the estimated prevalence of autoimmune diseases alone and in aggregate that can be readily used by other investigators to replicate or modify the analysis over time. RESULTS Our findings indicate that over 15 million people, or 4.6% of the US population, have been diagnosed with at least 1 autoimmune disease from January 1, 2011, to June 1, 2022, and 34% of those are diagnosed with more than 1 autoimmune disease. As expected, females (63% of those with autoimmune disease) were almost twice as likely as males to be diagnosed with an autoimmune disease. We identified the top 20 autoimmune diseases based on prevalence and according to sex and age. CONCLUSION Here, we provide, for what we believe to be the first time, a large-scale prevalence estimate of autoimmune disease in the US by sex and age. FUNDING Autoimmune Registry Inc., the National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.