Cheng, Feixiong

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in cancer survivors. Predicting CVD risk in this population remains challenging. Risk prediction models that use machine learning algorithms could provide an objective method for accurate risk prediction to facilitate the prevention and management of CVD in cancer survivors. We evaluated previously tested machine learning algorithms and logistic regression (regularized by machine learning methods), in addition to testing and validating newer, more complex machine learning algorithms, for CVD prediction in cancer survivors. Methods This multicenter study used a database of 3835 multiracial cancer survivors with 89 clinical, laboratory, and echocardiographic features over 20 years. Models were trained using repeated random and time‐split samples and tested on a separate cohort of 329 patients. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Regularized logistic regression achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.845 (heart failure), 0.783 (atrial fibrillation), 0.792 (coronary artery disease), and 0.806 (composite CVD). These are comparable to 0.837 and 0.848 for heart failure, using Bayesian additive regression tree and random forest as more advanced machine learning models, respectively. De novo composite CVD (post‐cancer diagnosis) was also predicted with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.826 using regularized logistic regression, compared with 0.735 and 0.802 using decision tree and random forest, respectively. Conclusions Regularized logistic regression and advanced machine learning models demonstrated similar predictive performance, with institutional transferability. These tools may support risk stratification and prevention strategies in cardio‐oncology using longitudinal data. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT05377320.

Background Right ventricular (RV) maladaptation to elevated pulmonary afterload is the primary determinant of outcomes in pulmonary artery (PA) hypertension; however, the pathobiological mechanisms underlying RV decompensation remain poorly understood. Methods We performed global untargeted metabolomics on plasma from 55 patients who underwent gold‐standard RV‐PA coupling measurements using multibeat pressure volume loop assessment in a single‐center cohort and from 1027 patients with coupling surrogate measurements in a larger multicenter cohort, the PVDOMICS (Pulmonary Vascular Disease Phenomics) study. Age and sex‐adjusted linear regression was performed to identify associations between metabolites and coupling metrics. Additionally, we performed a metabolic flux analysis using gene expression data from RV tissue in an independent cohort of 32 patients. Partial least squares–discriminant analysis was used to identify metabolites and reactions characteristic of the decompensated RV. Results RV‐PA coupling was negatively associated with tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle intermediate levels. Specifically, plasma α‐ketoglutarate and fumarate were significantly associated with all coupling metrics in both cohorts. Metabolic flux analysis indicated that decompensated RVs exhibited aberrant TCA cycle activity, including reduced acetyl coenzyme A entry and increased lactate elimination, suggesting a shift from the TCA cycle toward glycolysis at the RV tissue level. Conclusions We identify an association between circulating TCA cycle intermediate levels and RV‐PA uncoupling in 2 independent cohorts, and dysregulated TCA cycle metabolism in decompensated PA hypertension RVs, suggesting that aberrant TCA cycle metabolism could represent a hallmark of RV maladaptation in PA hypertension. Further study of this pathway is warranted to develop novel biomarkers of RV function or RV‐targeted therapies.