Theodorakakou, Foteini

ABSTRACT Systemic AL amyloidosis is a clonal plasma cell dyscrasia, where toxic free light chains (FLCs) lead to vital organ damage, with risk of early mortality despite effective therapies. Notably, there is a paucity of data on the incidence and predictors of early mortality in the daratumumab (Dara) era. We conducted a multi‐center retrospective cohort study to develop and validate a risk‐prediction model for early mortality (all‐cause death within 6 months) in patients treated with Dara‐based frontline regimens. We used univariate analysis to identify covariates for a logistic regression model predictive of 6‐month mortality and generated a clinical risk score. Among 339 patients across eight centers, 36 (10.6%) experienced early mortality. Multivariate analysis identified four independent predictors: NT‐proBN P > 5300 pg/mL (odds ratio [OR] 3.83, p = 0.006), A ge > 75 years (OR 2.96, p = 0.073), absence of t(11;14) on C ytogenetics (OR 3.0, p = 0.022), and E COG performance status (OR 1.72 per unit increase, p = 0.044). The resulting PACE score stratified patients into three risk groups with a 6‐month mortality of 1.2% (low‐risk), 11.7% (intermediate‐risk), and 50.0% (high‐risk). The PACE score demonstrated superior discrimination (C‐index 0.78) for early mortality compared to Mayo 2004 (0.69) and Mayo 2012 (0.55) staging systems. External validation confirmed robust discrimination (C‐index 0.73) with corresponding 6‐month mortality rates of 4.2%, 15.25%, and 37.04% across respective risk groups. The PACE score provides a clinically applicable tool for early mortality risk stratification in AL amyloidosis patients receiving Dara‐based therapy, and will enable improved patient counseling, clinical trial design, and identification of ultra‐high‐risk patients requiring intensive monitoring and novel therapies.

PURPOSE Outcomes in systemic light chain (AL) amyloidosis have improved with modern therapy limiting utility of existing risk stratification models. We validate a new staging system, incorporating longitudinal strain (LS) to the biomarker-based (NT-proBNP and Troponin-T) staging system in the contemporary treatment era (2015-2024). METHODS AL International Staging System (AL-ISS) was derived from a cohort of patients with AL amyloidosis from the UK National Amyloidosis Centre (2015-2019). The model was validated in patient cohorts from Europe (Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland), the United States (2015-2024), and the United Kingdom (2020-2024). RESULTS In total, 2,493 patients were included (derivation, n = 573; validation n = 1,920). In a multivariable model for the derivation cohort, LS ≥ –9% and cardiac biomarkers at previously validated thresholds (NT-proBNP 332 ng/L and 8,500 ng/L and high-sensitivity troponin T ≥ 50 ng/L) were independent poor prognostic factors stratifying patients into stages I, II, IIIA, IIIB, and IIIC. In the validation cohort, the patient stages were stage I: 317 (17%), II: 782 (41%), IIIA: 551 (29%), IIIB: 174 (9%), and IIIC: 96 (5%), respectively (first-line daratumumab treated: 826; 43%). With a median follow-up of 34 months, median overall survival (OS) was not reached (NR); estimated 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year OS was 82%, 74%, and 70% respectively. The median survival for stages I to II, IIIA, IIIB, and IIIC were NR, 67, 26, and 7 months (1-year OS IIIC 53% v 68% for IIIB in the daratumumab-treated patients), respectively ( P < .001). External validation exhibited good predictive performance: 12-month calibration slope was 1.09, Harrell C 0.69, Royston D 1.19, and R 2 D 0.25. Stage IIIC independently discriminated the poorest outcome across all cohorts. CONCLUSION This defines and validates a new staging system from systemic AL amyloidosis with robust identification of an ultra-poor risk stage (IIIC) in contemporarily treated patients.

Abstract Background: Systemic AL amyloidosis is an incurable disorder caused by misfolded light chain fibrils. Survival is determined by the extent of cardiac involvement and response to therapy. Mayo 2012 (stage I-IV) and European modified Mayo 2004 (stage I-IIIB) prognostic scores were developed in a historic treatment era, prior to widespread bortezomib and daratumumab use. These no longer discriminate those with the poorest outcomes. We presented a new model sub-stratifying IIIB into a high risk, ‘IIIC’ group, incorporating longitudinal strain (LS) to the European modified score (IIIC: LS &gt;-9% + NT-proBNP &gt;8500ng/L + high-sensitivity troponin T [hs-TnT] &gt;50ng/L) in the bortezomib-era (2015-2019) last year (Khwaja et al, ASH 2024). Here, we present an independent external validation of the IIIC model in the modern treatment era. Methods: The ‘IIIC model’ was derived from a large real-world cohort of adults from the UK National Amyloidosis Centre (2015-2019). Performance was externally validated across Europe (Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Switzerland), USA (2015-2024) and UK (2020-2024). Survival estimates were generated from diagnosis to death or last follow-up using the Kaplan-Meier method and groups compared using Cox regression (using Stata v18). Stage IIIB and IIIC were defined as follows IIIB: LS &lt;-9%, NT-proBNP &gt;8500ng/L, hs-TnT &gt;50ng/L and IIIC: LS &gt;-9%, NT-proBNP &gt;8500ng/L, hs-TnT &gt;50ng/L, respectively. Stage I, II and IIIa were defined as previously described in the European modification of Mayo 2004 staging system. Results: 2493 patients were analysed from 2015-2024 (derivation, n=573; validation: Europe, n=374, USA n=458, UK, n=1088). In the derivation cohort, LS ≥-9% and standard cardiac biomarkers (NT-proBNP 332ng/L and 8500ng/L and hs-TnT&gt;50ng/L) were selected as independent prognostic factors in a multivariable model. In the European and UK validation cohort (n=1462), median age at diagnosis was 67 years (range 35-95) with 1014 (69%) cardiac and 869 (60%) renal involvement. Median difference in involved and uninvolved free light chain (dFLC) was 181 mg/L (range 0-24933), NT-proBNP 1911ng/L (range 42-70000), hs-TnT 45ng/L (range 3-1221) and LS -14.7% (range -3- -28). In the US cohort median NT-proBNP was 1764 (range 13-71000) and hs-TnT 44 (6-687). Applying the new model staging, the patient stages were across Europe and UK were stage I: 224 (15%), II: 627 (43%), IIIA: 396 (27%), IIIB: 139 (10%) and IIIC: 76 (5%), respectively. 592 (41%) were treated with first-line daratumumab-based regimens. In the US dataset stage I: 103 (22%), II: 176 (38%), IIIA: 131 (29%), IIIB: 48 (10%) and IIIC: 16 (3%), respectively. 234 (51%) were treated with first-line daratumumab-based regimens. At a median follow-up of 30 months (95% CI 28-32) in the European and UK validation cohort, estimated median overall survival (OS) was not reached and 2-year OS was 74% (95% CI 72-77). Median survival for stages I-II, IIIA, IIIB and IIIC were not reached (NR), 67, 31 and 10 months, respectively (p&lt;0.001). Hazard ratios for stage II, IIIA, IIIB, IIIC were 2.01 (95% CI 1.32-3.07), 3.51 (95% CI 2.31-5.35), 5.67 (95% CI 3.60-8.91) and 11.12 (95% CI 6.93-17.87), respectively (p&lt;0.001). This was confirmed in the US cohort with a median survival for respective stages were NR, NR, NR, 8 and 2 months (p&lt;0.001). External validation in the European and UK cohorts exhibited good predictive performance: 12-month calibration slope was 1.00 (95% CI 0.81-1.20, p=0.98), Harrel's C was 0.90 (95% CI 0.76-1.00), Royston's D 1.07, R2D 0.21 (95% CI 0.15-0.28). In 1462 patients with dataset available, stage IIIC discriminated the poorest outcome despite a greater proportion treated with first-line daratumumab v IIIB in the validation cohort (59% v 40%, p=0.008). 12-month OS for IIIC v IIIB was 44% (95% CI 32-55) v 69% (95% CI 60-76), specificity for 12-month OS 97% v 92% and diagnostic odds ratio 6.62 v 2.36. Conclusions: This study validates the new staging system from stage I-IIIC with robust identification of an ultra-poor prognostic group (Stage IIIC) in a contemporarily treated patient cohort. Despite novel therapies, the OS remains &lt;12 month in the IIIC group and also poor in stage IIIB with median OS 31 months compared to a median of &gt;5 years for all other stages. This staging system can be considered as a new standard of care for risk stratification of AL amyloidosis. Novel approaches are required for patients with advanced risk.

ABSTRACT Acute renal failure due to cast nephropathy (CAN) is a severe complication of multiple myeloma (MM). Here, we aimed to identify parameters associated with renal outcomes and survival in newly diagnosed MM patients with CAN‐related acute renal failure and to validate the IMWG criteria for renal response. CAN diagnosis was based on biopsy or clinical assessment. Of 787 registered patients, 354 met the inclusion criteria, requiring at least two therapy cycles with documented chemotherapy response, renal response, and eGFR. Baseline free light chain (FLC) levels (median 6825.65 mg/L) decreased below 500 mg/L in 67.8% of patients. According to IMWG classification, renal complete response, partial response, and minimal response were achieved in 33.9%, 19.5%, and 28.0% of patients, respectively. The best eGFR values > 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 were observed in 33.9% of patients, while 33.3%, 22.3%, and 10.5% had best eGFR values of 30–59, 15–29, and < 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 , respectively. Renal response correlated with baseline FLC levels, IgG kappa, eGFR, and ECOG status in multivariate analysis, as well as with myeloma response and FLC reduction in univariate analysis. Median overall survival was 77.6 months. Survival correlated with age, myeloma response, ECOG status, FLC kappa type, baseline eGFR, standard‐risk cytogenetics, and calcium levels, among other factors. A comparison of IMWG renal response criteria with classification based solely on best eGFR showed similar utility. Of 136 patients requiring dialysis, 80 (58.8%) were able to discontinue dialysis during therapy. Bortezomib containing myeloma therapy, along with significant FLC reduction, was associated with favorable outcome.

Abstract Accurate prediction of risk of progression from smoldering (SMM) to active multiple myeloma (MM) is paramount to individualized early therapeutic strategies with minimum risk of overtreatment. Current risk stratification models do not account for evolving biomarker trajectories. We assembled the largest cohort to date of 2,270 SMM patients from six international centers with longitudinal clinical and biological data to train and validate the PANGEA 2.0 risk models. Four evolving biomarkers were significantly associated with shorter time-to-progression: M-protein increase ≥0.2g/dL, involved:uninvolved serum free light chain ratio increase ≥20, creatinine increase >25%, and hemoglobin decrease ≥1.5g/dL. PANGEA 2.0 outperforms established models including the 20/2/20 and IMWG models by more accurately predicting progression (C-statistics=0.69–0.84), even without biomarker history (C-statistics=0.69–0.83) or recent bone marrow biopsy. PANGEA 2.0 is an easy-to-use, open-access tool (https://ghobrial.shinyapps.io/pangea_2_calculator) to improve and individualize SMM risk stratification. Validation tools are available to compare PANGEA 2.0 to established models (https://ghobrial.shinyapps.io/pangea_validation).

Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) due to cast nephropathy is a medical emergency that leads to a diagnosis of myeloma in less than 3% of cases, but up to 30% of patients develop kidney impairment during the course of their disease. Currently, studies aiming to identify parameters that correlate with kidney function recovery and response to myeloma are limited due to small sample size or single center reports. We have therefore initiated an international collaboration and collected a large number patients (pts) from 16 participating centers. Objectives: To assess the impact of pts and disease characteristics and treatment-specific factors on renal outcome and overall survival and to validate the IMWG criteria for renal response in pts with cast nephropathy and newly diagnosed MM. Patients and Methods: Three-hundred forty-three pts (median age: 65.5 range 35-93 yrs) with newly diagnosed MM and an eGFR &lt;40ml/min/1.73m2 have been selected from 704 pts that had been enrolled in the database hosted by RedCap. Eligibility criteria were a diagnosis of AKI due to cast nephropathy diagnosed either by kidney biopsy (n=119) or on clinical criteria (AKI in the setting of involved free light chain concentration of ≥500 mg/L), newly diagnosed multiple myeloma, &gt;2 cycles of therapy, time and type of therapy, best eGFR and best myeloma response available. Results: Median follow up was 36.9 months. Myeloma therapy resulted in renal CR, and PR as defined by the IMWG criteria in 131 (38.2%) and 57 (16.6%) pts, respectively, 54 (15.7%) and 82 (23.9%) pts had minor response or no response, respectively. Nineteen (5.5%) pts were not classifiable by the IMWG response criteria (pts with eGFR 15-&lt;30, with increase to eGFR to ≥30-&lt;40). An eGFR of &gt;60, ≥30-&lt;60, ≥15-&lt;30, and &lt;15ml/min was achieved by 131 (38.2%), 112 (32.7%), 67 (19.5%), and 33 (9.6%) pts respectively. Myeloma response (≥VGPR) correlated significantly with renal response (≥PRrenal) (OR 1.64, CI 1.05-2.56, p=0.03) and with OS compared to no myeloma response (median 89.7 vs. 39.7 months, HR 2.12, CI 1.55-2.89, p&lt;0.0001). A &gt;50% reduction in FLCs from baseline to treatment cycle 2 (OR 5.92, CI 2.15-19.23, p=0.001) and cycle 3 (OR 5.25, CI 2.15-19.25, p=0.006) were strongly associated with renal response Median OS was 69.6 months (CI 55.4-89.7). Forty-three pts died within the first 12 months of treatment and additional 146 during further FU. Pts with a best GFR of &gt;15ml/min had a significantly longer OS compared to those with GFR &lt;15ml/min (median: 77.9 vs 31.9 months, HR 1.85, CI 1.16-2.94, p=0.01). The comparison of survival of pts with different renal response groups and with the best eGFR showed no statistically significant difference (log rank p=0.1, long rank p=0.057, respectively). Other factors that correlated with longer OS were bortezomib-based therapy (77.9 vs. 44.0 months, HR 1.59, CI 1.05-2.38, p=0.03), M-protein isotype with κ as compared to l light chain type (84.9 vs. 51.4 months, HR 1.47, CI 1.09-2.00, p=0.013), and higher hemoglobin (HR 1.16, CI 1.06-1.26, p=0.001). In contrast, hypercalcemia which was noted in 101 (29.4%) pts (HR 1.10, CI 1.03-1.18, p=0.005), ISS stage III vs. I-II (57.8 vs. 126.2 months, HR 2.26, CI 1.22-4.17, p=0.009), and ECOG status 3+4 vs. 2 vs. 0+1 (24.4 vs. 44.6 vs. 103 months, HR 2.83, CI 2.15-3.74, p&lt;0.0001) were associated with shorter OS. Hypercalcemia, correlated with renal response (OR 1.27, CI 1.12-1.44, p=0.0002), and best eGFR ≥46.4 ml/min (median dichotomized) (OR 1.28, CI 1.14-1.46, p&lt;0.0001). 119 (34.7%) pts required initial dialysis, OS was significantly longer in those who achieved best eGFR levels of &gt;15ml/min. (77.6 vs 31.9 months, HR 0.54, CI 0.34-0.86, p=0.01); 64 (53%) pts discontinued dialysis. Conclusion: Myeloma response correlated with renal response as defined by IMWG criteria. A &gt;50% reduction in FLCs from baseline to treatment cycle ≥2 was strongly associated with renal response. OS was longer in pts with renal response, in pts receiving bortezomib-based therapy, and in pts with kappa light chain M-proteins. Hypercalcemia was frequent (29.4%), and associated with higher renal response rate and best eGFR, but shorter OS. Pts on dialysis who achieved eGFR &gt;15ml/min had better survival. Fast diagnostic work up, rapid treatment initiation and achieving significant myeloma response (≥VGPR) is essential to prevent irreversible kidney damage. Including novel immunotherapies may further improve outcome.