Kowdley, Kris V.

Objective The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. Methods The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. Results We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1–12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2–4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. Conclusion The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Changes over time in the presenting features and clinical course of patients with primary biliary cholangitis are poorly described. We sought to describe temporal trends in patient and disease characteristics over a 44‐year period across a large international primary biliary cholangitis cohort of 4,805 patients diagnosed between 1970 and 2014, from 17 centers across Europe and North America. Patients were divided into five cohorts according to their year of diagnosis: 1970‐1979 (n = 143), 1980‐1989 (n = 858), 1990‐1999 (n = 1,754), 2000‐2009 (n = 1,815), and ≥2010 (n = 235). Age at diagnosis, disease stage, response to ursodeoxycholic acid, and clinical outcomes were compared. Mean age at diagnosis increased incrementally by 2‐3 years per decade from 46.9 ± 10.1 years in the 1970s to 57.0 ± 12.1 years from 2010 onward (P < 0.001). The female to male ratio (9:1) and antimitochondrial antibody positivity (90%) were not significantly variable. The proportion of patients presenting with mild biochemical disease (according to Rotterdam staging) increased from 41.3% in the 1970s to 72.2% in the 1990s (P < 0.001) and remained relatively stable thereafter. Patients with a mild histological stage at diagnosis increased from 60.4% (1970‐1989) to 76.5% (1990‐2014) (P < 0.001). Correspondingly, response to ursodeoxycholic acid according to Paris‐I criteria increased; 51.7% in the 1970s and 70.5% in the 1990s (P < 0.001). Recent decades were also characterized by lower decompensation rates (18.5% in the 1970s to 5.8% in the 2000s, P < 0.001) and higher 10‐year transplant‐free survival (48.4%, 68.7%, 79.7%, and 80.1% for each respective cohort; P < 0.001). Conclusion: In recent decades, a pattern of primary biliary cholangitis presentation consistent with an older age at diagnosis alongside reduced disease severity has been noted; the observed trends may be explained by an increase in routine testing of liver function and/or a changing environmental trigger. (Hepatology 2018;67:1920‐1930).

SummaryBackgroundThe relationships between primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) and the environment are largely unknown.AimTo validate associations reported in previous studies and to identify novel environmental exposures among PSC patients.MethodsWe performed a multicenter, case–control analysis utilising self‐administered questionnaires. Responses between cases (n = 1000) and controls (n = 663) were compared using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age and gender. The model was further stratified based on inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) status (with IBD n = 741 without IBD n = 259).ResultsSmoking was associated with PSC only when IBD was present (OR, 0.5; 95% CI 0.4–0.7) but not among those PSC patients without IBD (OR, 0.9; 95% CI 0.7–1.2). Compared to controls, women with PSC (irrespective of the presence of IBD) were less likely to have received hormone replacement therapy (HRT; OR, 0.5; 95% CI 0.4–0.7) and were more likely to have recurrent urinary tract infections (OR, 1.6; 95% CI 1.2–2.3). PSC patients regardless of gender or IBD status were less likely to eat fish (OR, 0.4; 95% CI 0.3–0.6) and grilled/barbecued meat (OR, 0.8; 95% CI 0.7–0.9). In contrast, PSC patients with and without IBD were more likely to consume steak/burgers that were more well done (OR, 1.3; 95% CI 1.2–1.5).ConclusionsIBD (rather than PSC) is associated with smoking. Women with PSC are more likely to have recurrent urinary tract infections and less likely to receive HRT. Dietary intake and methods of food preparation differ in PSC patients when compared to controls.

Objective Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an infrequent yet critical event in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC); however, predictive tools remain ill-defined. Our objective was to identify candidate risk factors for HCC development in patients with PBC. Design Risk factor analysis was performed in over 15 centres from North America and Europe spanning >40 years observation period using Cox proportional hazards assumptions, logistic regression, and Kaplan-Meier estimates. Results Of 4565 patients with PBC 123 developed HCC, yielding an incidence rate (IR) of 3.4 cases/1000 patient-years. HCC was significantly more common in men (p<0.0001), and on univariate analysis factors at PBC diagnosis associated with future HCC development were male sex (unadjusted HR 2.91, p<0.0001), elevated serum aspartate transaminase (HR 1.24, p<0.0001), advanced disease (HR 2.72, p=0.022), thrombocytopenia (HR 1.65, p<0.0001), and hepatic decompensation (HR 9.89, p<0.0001). As such, non-treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid itself was not associated with cancer development; however, 12-month stratification by biochemical non-response (Paris-I criteria) associated significantly with future risk of HCC (HR 4.52, p<0.0001; IR 6.6 vs 1.4, p<0.0001). Non-response predicted future risk in patients with early stage disease (IR 4.7 vs 1.2, p=0.005), advanced disease (HR 2.79, p=0.02; IR 11.2 vs 4.4, p=0.033), and when restricting the analysis to only male patients (HR 4.44, p<0.001; IR 18.2 vs 5.4, p<0.001). On multivariable analysis biochemical non-response remained the most significant factor predictive of future HCC risk (adjusted HR 3.44, p<0.0001). Conclusions This uniquely powered, internationally representative cohort robustly demonstrates that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with increased future risk of developing HCC in PBC. Such risk stratification is relevant to patient care and development of new therapies.

ABSTRACTObjectives:In adults, vitamin D deficiency is common in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and has been associated with the severity of histology. There are known differences between adult and pediatric NAFLD, with little data regarding the relation between vitamin D and pediatric NAFLD. The aim of the present study was to examine the relation between vitamin D levels and NAFLD in children.Methods:Clinical and histological data were used from children ages 2 to 18 years with biopsy‐proven NAFLD enrolled in the Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis Clinical Research Network studies. 25(OH) vitamin D levels were measured from serum. Data examined included demographics, anthropometrics, laboratory markers, and liver histology. Data were analyzed using 3 categories of vitamin D level: deficient (≤20 ng/mL), insufficient (21–29 ng/mL), and sufficient (≥30 ng/mL).Results:A total of 102 children were studied. There was a high prevalence (80/102, 78%) of vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency; however, there were no significant associations between vitamin D level and the histological characteristics or severity of NAFLD. Significantly higher levels of triglycerides were found in those with vitamin D deficiency (P = 0.004), but there was no association with other features of the metabolic syndrome.Conclusions:There is a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency in children with biopsy‐proven NAFLD; however, no association was found between vitamin D deficiency and the severity of disease on biopsies. This differs from adult NAFLD studies in which vitamin D deficiency correlates with histological severity, suggesting differences in the risk factors for or consequences of pediatric NAFLD.

Introduction Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important but infrequent outcome in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). Improved risk evaluation is an important goal for stratified surveillance. Methods Risk-factor analysis of the ‘Global PBC Study Group’ comprising 15 centres across North America and Europe spanning >40-years follow-up was performed using Cox proportional hazards model, logistic regression and Kaplan-Meier estimates (SPSSv21). Results Of 3546 patients with PBC (med. follow-up 8.6 yrs; IQR 4.4–14.1), 131 developed HCC. Excluding those who developed HCC within 12 months of PBC diagnosis (n = 23), median time to HCC was 12.7 yrs (6.9–16.8) and subsequent survival 1.1 yrs. (0.2–2.7). At diagnosis, factors associated with HCC development were male gender (adj. HR: 4.4;1.4–12.2, p = 0.014) and thrombocytopenia (adj. HR: 4.5;1.4–14.8, p = 0.012). Use of ursodeoxycholic acid per-se was not associated with future risk of HCC, but stratification of risk by biochemical response at 12 months was effective by Rotterdam (adj. HR: 8.9;2.1–37.3, P = 0.003), Paris-I (adj. HR: 7.6;2.0–29.0, p = 0.003) or Toronto criteria (HR: 5.6;1.6–18.8, P = 0.006). Five (4.6 vs. 0.2%) and 10-year (13%vs.1.9%) HCC incidence was significantly increased for biochemical non-responders (p = 2.2 × 10 –9 ), and by multivariate analysis non-response remained the only significant risk factor. Conclusion Our uniquely powered cohort allows robust demonstration that 12-month biochemical non-response is associated with an increased risk of developing HCC in PBC. Routine surveillance in those achieving biochemical response is unlikely cost-effective. Disclosure of Interest None Declared.

SummaryBackgroundIt remains unclear whether a long‐acting preparation of octreotide (Sandostatin LAR) can be safely used for portal hypertension in patients with compensated cirrhosis.AimTo determine the safety and efficacy of LAR among patients with Child Pugh Class A or B cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices.MethodsA randomised, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled study was conducted in 39 patients with cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices. Safety was based on frequency and severity of adverse events. Efficacy was determined by hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) measured at baseline and day 84 following administration of LAR 10 mg (n = 15), 30 mg (n = 10) or saline (n = 14). Fasting and postprandial portal blood flow (PBF), superior mesenteric artery pulsatility index (SMA‐PI), glucagon and octreotide levels were measured. An intention‐to‐treat analysis was performed.ResultsFour patients in the LAR 30 group (40%) withdrew from the study due to serious adverse events. No patient in the LAR 10 or control group had serious adverse events. There was no statistically significant decrease between HVPG at day 84 and baseline with LAR 30 mg (11.8 ± 2.3 mmHg vs. 14.1 ± 3.2), LAR 10 mg (15.3 ± 4.8 mmHg vs. 15.1 ± 3.8), or saline (13.3 ± 3.8 mmHg vs. 15.1 ± 4.3) (P = 0.26). Neither PBF, SMA‐PI nor plasma glucagon levels were significantly decreased from baseline (P = 0.56).ConclusionsThe absence of significant haemodynamic benefit, as well as the high frequency of severe adverse events associated with use of LAR, do not support the use of this agent in the treatment of portal hypertension.

Abstract Inflammation plays a role in the progression to cancer and it is linked to the presence of senescent cells. Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic inflammatory disease that predisposes to colorectal cancer. Tumorigenesis in this setting is associated with telomere shortening that can be observed in the nondysplastic epithelium of UC patients with high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or cancer (UC progressors). We hypothesized that a preneoplastic field of inflammation, telomere shortening, and senescence underlies tumor progression in UC progressors. Multiple biopsies of varying histologic grade were collected along the colon of nine UC progressors and analyzed for telomere length, DNA damage, senescence, p53, p16, and chronic and acute inflammation. Twenty biopsies from four UC nonprogressors and twenty-one biopsies from control individuals without UC were also analyzed. Short telomeres and increased DNA damage, senescence, and infiltrating leukocytes were observed in biopsies located less than 10 cm from HGD or cancer. Low-grade dysplasia (LGD) had the shortest telomeres along with the highest levels of senescence and infiltrating leukocytes, whereas HGD biopsies showed the opposite pattern. The expression of p16 and p53 was low in nondysplastic biopsies but progressively increased in LGD and HGD. In addition, high levels of infiltrating leukocytes were associated with telomere shortening, senescence, and reduced p53 expression. These results suggest that dysplasia arises in a preneoplastic field of chronic inflammation, which leads to telomere shortening, DNA damage, and senescence. Our findings argue that senescence acts as a tumor suppressor mechanism that is abrogated during the transition from LGD to HGD in UC. Cancer Res; 71(5); 1669–79. ©2011 AACR.