Bando, Hideaki

Abstract Background Synthetic control arms (SCAs) derived from historical trial data can complement randomized controlled trials (RCTs), particularly in oncology where feasibility, ethical, and cost constraints may limit conventional trial designs. However, their validity for overall survival (OS) remains uncertain. We evaluated the feasibility and limitations of constructing SCAs from the ARCAD metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) database across multiple treatment lines. Methods Seven landmark RCTs representing first-, second-, and third-line settings were selected. External control arms were constructed from ARCAD individual patient-level data using propensity score matching based on key clinical and biological variables from a validated ARCAD prognostic score, with adjustment for geographic region and time era when needed. A prespecified two-step benchmarking framework assessed: (1) control-arm OS reproducibility and (2) virtual trial comparisons between matched synthetic controls and original RCT experimental arms. Agreement was evaluated using hazard ratios (HRs) and Z-tests. Results A total of 28,022 patients met the inclusion criteria. ARCAD-derived SCAs were successfully constructed for all selected RCTs and closely reproduced control-arm OS. After matching, baseline characteristics were well balanced, with minimal differences between included and excluded patients. Virtual trials showed concordant treatment-effect estimates with the original RCTs, with a median absolute HR deviation of 0.05 and no significant differences by Z-tests (P>.05). Survival outcomes were consistently reproduced across treatment lines. Conclusion ARCAD-derived SCAs reliably reproduced control-arm OS and benchmark treatment-effect estimates from landmark RCTs in mCRC. Despite limitations related to residual confounding and missing data, this framework supports benchmarking, trial design, and exploratory analyses when conventional control arms are impractical.

e15557 Background: In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), systemic chemotherapy can enable conversion surgery in a subset of patients with initially unresectable disease. Although R0 resection considered a key determinant of long-term survival, its clinical impact across heterogeneous trial populations and treatment strategies remains insufficiently defined. We aimed to clarify the survival benefit of R0 resection after first-line chemotherapy using large-scale individual patient data. Methods: Using the ARCAD database, which comprises 67 randomized clinical trials and approximately 47,000 patients, we conducted a pooled analysis of individual patient data from six first-line randomized clinical trials (COIN, COIN-B, 03-TTD-01, ATOM, SOFT and PARADIGM) for which data on R0 resection were available. Patients with initially unresectable mCRC and available surgical data were categorized into three groups: R0 resection, non-R0 resection, and no surgery. All R0 cases were included, comprising liver-only, lung-only, combined liver and lung metastases, and peritoneal dissemination or other metastatic sites. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and performance status. Pre-specified subgroup analyses examined the consistency of outcomes according to tumor response, metastatic site, primary tumor sidedness, RAS status, and targeted therapy class. Results: Among 4,445 eligible patients, 263 underwent R0 , 233 underwent non-R0 resection, and 3,949 received no surgical intervention. The R0 resection group comprised patients with liver-only metastases (n = 176), lung-only metastases (n = 23), and combined liver and lung metastases (n = 27). R0 resection was associated with significantly improved OS and PFS compared with both non-R0 resection and no surgery. These survival benefits were consistently observed across key clinical subgroups, including patients achieving complete or partial response to chemotherapy, those with liver or lung metastases, left- and right-sided primary tumors, and both RAS wild-type and mutant disease. Importantly, the benefit of R0 resection was maintained irrespective of anti-EGFR– or anti-VEGF–based first-line therapy. Conclusions: R0 resection following systemic chemotherapy is strongly associated with durable survival benefits in patients with initially unresectable mCRC across diverse clinical settings. These findings support the pivotal role of conversion strategies and highlight the importance of multidisciplinary evaluation to identify appropriate candidates for curative-intent resection.

599 Background: Biliary tract cancers (BTC) remain aggressive malignancies with limited treatment options. Alterations in PIK3CA are implicated in tumor progression across solid tumors, but their prognostic impact in BTC remains unclear. We investigated the association of PIK3CA alterations(alt), alone and in combination with TP53 and ARID1A , with survival outcomes in advanced BTC. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1,079 patients with advanced BTC treated with first-line chemotherapy (CT) or chemoimmunotherapy (CIO) across three sites in the USA, Japan, and Brazil. Genomic profiling was performed using next-generation sequencing on tissue and/or liquid biopsy samples. Survival outcomes were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis, with comparisons by log-rank testing and hazard ratios (HR) derived from Cox regression models. Results: PIK3CA alterations were identified in 11% (123/1,079) of patients. The median age at diagnosis was 68 yrs (range, 20–79), with 50% (62/123) female. The most common primary site was intrahepatic in 43.1% (53/123) while majority of patients received CT only 92.5% (111/123). When analyzed with TP53 , 68 pts had PIK3CA/TP53 co-alterations(co-alt), 501 had TP53 alt, 55 had PIK3CA alt alone, and 455 had neither PIK3CA nor TP53 alt (WT/WT). Overall survival (OS) was significantly worse in patients with PIK3CA alt, particularly in the setting of TP53 co-alt. Median OS (mOS) was 22.6 months(m) (95% CI, 20.4–24.8) for PIK3CA/TP53 WT, 15.9 m (95% CI, 11.6–18.5) for PIK3CA alt /TP53 WT, 14.6 m (95% CI, 13.1–19.5) for PIK3CA alt/ TP53 alt, and 17.1 m (95% CI, 15.5–18.8) for TP53alt/PIK3CA WT (p<0.001). In analyses with ARID1A , 32 pts had PIK3CA/ARID1A co-alt, 91 had ARID1A alt only, 120 had PIK3CA alt only, and 836 were WT/WT. PIK3CA/ARID1A co-alt tumors had a mOS of 12.8 m (95% CI, 9.1–NE) compared with 19.3 m (95% CI, 18.1–20.9) in PIK3CA WT /ARID1A WT (p=0.009). Multivariate analysis identified PIK3CA alt (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95%CI 1.09–1.72; p=0.008), PIK3CA alt/ TP53 alt (HR 1.52 95% CI, 1.11–2.07; p=0.008), ARID1A alt/ PIK3CA WT (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.08-1.82, p=0.011), and metastatic status (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.52-2.19, P<0.001) as independent prognostic factors for shorter OS. Conclusions: In advanced BTC, PIK3CA alt were associated with significantly worse overall survival, particularly when co-occurring with TP53 or ARID1A alt. These findings establish PIK3CA as a prognostic biomarker of poor outcome and highlight the need to explore PI3K-targeted therapeutic strategies in BTC.

593 Background: TP53 and CDKN2A are the most frequently mutated tumor suppressors in BTC, each linked to poor outcomes. Their co-alteration remains unexplored due to the current single-gene classification. Methods: This is an international multicenter study involving 35 institutions across 3 continents (North America, Asia, South America). Genomic profiling was performed on tissue or blood samples using NGS. Patients (pts) were categorized as wild-type (wt) TP53/ wt CDKN2A (WT/WT) (42%), mutated (mut) TP53 /wt CDKN2A (45%), wt TP53 /mut CDKN2A (5%), mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A (8%). Associations between TP53 / CDKN2A status , clinical and genomic features were evaluated using Chi-squared/Kruskal-Wallis tests adjusted for multiple comparisons. Overall survival (OS) from start of first-line systemic therapy was analyzed by Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression (covariates: age, sex, stage, primary site, first-line treatment, TP53/CDKN2A status), p or q<0.05. Results: We included 1079 pts with BTC. Median age 66 years with intrahepatic BTC (46%), gallbladder cancer (25%), extrahepatic BTC (22%), undefined (6%), ampullary cancer (< 1%). Most had de novo metastatic disease (54%), followed by recurrent (38%) and locally advanced disease (8%). Treatment regimens included chemotherapy (87%), chemo-immunotherapy (12%) and immunotherapy alone (<1%). The most frequently actionable genes were HER2 (8%), IDH1 (7%), BRAF (6%), FGFR2 fusions (4%), MSI-High (H) (3%). HER2 alterations were prevalent in mut TP53 /wt CDKN2A vs WT/WT (11 vs 4%, q = 0.002). IDH1 alterations were more frequent in WT/WT vs TP53 mut/wt CDKN2A (10 vs 4%, q < 0.001). FGFR2 fusions were more common in wt TP53 /mut CDKN2A vs WT/WT (17 vs 6%, q < 0.001), mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A (17 vs 3%, q = 0.001) and mut TP53 /wt CDKN2A (17 vs 1%, q < 0.001). MSI-H was enriched in mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A vs wt TP53 /mut CDKN2A (11 vs 2%, q = 0.035), mut TP53 /wt CDKN2A (11 vs 3%, q = 0.002) and WT/WT (11 vs 2%, q < 0.001). TMB-H was more prevalent in mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A vs mut TP53 /wt CDKN2A (16 vs 8%, q < 0.001) and WT/WT (16 vs 3%, q < 0.024). There was no significant difference in ORR, DCR and PFS among the four groups. mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A had the shortest median OS, while WT/WT had the longest (Table). Only 14% of mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A received regimens including immunotherapy. Conclusions: mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A represents a high-risk subset enriched with MSI-H and TMB-H pts, underscoring the need to prioritize the development of immunotherapy strategies. TP53 / CDKN2A status is prognostic, stratifying patients into distinct survival groups and supporting NGS use in the first-line setting. mOS (months) (95% CI) HR (95% CI) P-value WT/WT 21.4 (19.0-24.4) reference wt TP53 /mut CDKN2A 17.3 (12.4-25.9) 1.16 (0.79-1.71) 0.442 mut TP53 /wt CDKN2A 17.4 (16.0-19.2) 1.21 (1.01-1.45) 0.040 mut TP53 /mut CDKN2A 13.8 (11.5-18.1) 1.54 (1.13-2.09) <0.001

Abstract Molecular profiling reveals that up to 40% of advanced biliary tract cancers (BTCs) harbor actionable genomic alterations amenable to matched targeted therapies. However, conventional trial designs typically evaluate these agents in pretreated populations, resulting in approvals for later-line use. Notably, 25–44% of patients with advanced BTC may become ineligible for treatment after first-line therapy due to disease progression or functional decline, thus the real-world survival outcomes with matched therapies remains poorly characterized. This international collaborative study includes data from Mayo Clinic, Duke Cancer Institute, and National Cancer Center East (Japan), as well as a combined dataset from the SCRUM-Japan GOZILA, MONSTAR-SCREEN-1, and MONSTAR-SCREEN-2 projects. We assessed overall survival (OS) of patients based on the presence of actionable alterations and the receipt of matched therapy. To adjust for confounding, we applied propensity score weighting with inverse probability of treatment and multivariate Cox regression modeling, controlling for age, sex, tumor location, prior resection, and mutational subgroup. Among 1,049 patients that were analyzed, 358 (34.1%) harbored actionable alterations, with 160 (44.7%) receiving matched targeted therapy. The matched group (patients with actionable tumors who received a matched therapy) were significantly associated with longer median OS (23.3 months; 95% CI: 19.5–30.4) compared to the unmatched group (14.7 months; 95% CI: 12.8–17.9) and those with non-actionable tumors (17.1 months; 95% CI: 15.5–18.7; HR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.71; p < 0.0001). The unmatched group also was associated with the lowest three-year OS rate (13% vs. 35% in matched and 19% in actionable groups, respectively; p<0.0001). On multivariable analysis with patients who received ≥2 lines of therapy, receipt of matched therapy remained an independent predictor of improved OS (HR 0.62; 95% CI 0.43–0.90). These findings support the early integration of targeted therapies in BTC management and underscore the need to overcome systemic barriers to treatment access.

4119 Background: TP53 mutations are frequent genetic alterations in cancers and also prevalent in biliary tract cancer (BTC). In non-small cell lung cancer, TP53 mutations have been reported to enhance immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) efficacy and improve outcomes. However, their impact on BTC remains unclear. This study investigated the clinico-molecular characteristics, prognosis, and ICI efficacy in TP53 -mutated BTC. Methods: Patient data were collected from the SCRUM-Japan GOZILA and MONSTAR-SCREEN-1/2 databases (Japan) and the Duke university and Mayo clinic databases (U.S.), which included patients receiving first-line ICI therapy. Comparisons between TP53 wild-type (WT) and mutation groups were performed in the Japanese cohort. Subsequently, analyses were expanded to include U.S. patients, focusing on comparisons between non-ICI and ICI groups. Tumor Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) scores were calculated using MONSTAR-SCREEN-2 whole transcriptome sequencing (WTS) data to evaluate ICI responsiveness, and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) explored pathways associated with TP53 mutations. Results: In the Japanese cohort (n=594), TP53 mutations were identified in 311 patients (52.4%). KRAS , ERBB2 , CDKN2A , and SMAD4 alterations were more frequent in the TP53 mutation group, while IDH1, BAP1 , and FGFR2 fusions were more common in the WT group. Multivariable analysis showed TP53 mutations were independent prognostic factors for poor outcomes (progression-free survival [PFS]: HR 1.37, 95% CI: 1.11–1.69, P=0.003; overall survival [OS]: HR 1.36, 95% CI: 1.06–1.75, P=0.017). Incorporating the U.S. cohort (n=625; non-ICI: 548; ICI: 77), no significant differences in overall response rate (ORR) or disease control rate (DCR) were observed in the non-ICI group between the groups. However, in the ICI group, TP53 mutations tended to show higher ORR (21.1% vs. 38.5%, P=0.16) and DCR (47.4% vs. 66.7%, P=0.14). In the non-ICI group, TP53 mutations were associated with worse PFS (HR 1.46, median PFS: 7.4 vs. 5.3 months, P<0.001), whereas, in the ICI group, no significant difference was observed; however, a trend toward better PFS was seen in the TP53 mutation group (median PFS: 5.0 vs. 6.4 months, P=0.163). TIDE scores were significantly lower in the TP53 mutation group, indicating higher ICI responsiveness. GSEA revealed enrichment of oxidative phosphorylation and hypoxia pathways. Conclusions: TP53 mutations are independent prognostic factors for poor outcomes in BTC. However, patients with TP53 mutations may derive greater benefits from ICIs, underscoring the importance of tailored therapeutic strategies in TP53- mutated BTC.

Abstract Background Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response have emerged as potential prognostic indicators in metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). However, their associations with overall survival, progression-free survival (PFS), and postprogression survival in patients receiving anti–epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies or bevacizumab remain unclear. Methods We analyzed 3219 treatment-naive patients with RAS wild-type metastatic CRC from 8 randomized studies (CRYSTAL, OPUS, PRIME, CAIRO2, CALGB80405, WJOG4407G, ATOM, PARADIGM) in the Aid and Research in Digestive Cancerology database. Early tumor shrinkage was defined as a 20% or more reduction in tumor size at 8 ± 2 weeks, whereas depth of response was assessed by maximum tumor shrinkage at nadir. Cox regression models evaluated the associations of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response with overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival, adjusting for confounders. A 2-sided test was conducted with a significance level of .05. Results Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response substantially stratified overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival outcomes across all treatment groups. Early tumor shrinkage positivity was associated with improved overall survival, PFS, and postprogression survival in anti-EGFR and bevacizumab-based therapies, with a trend toward better outcomes in the anti-EGFR group. The depth of response analysis revealed optimal cutoff values of 0.55 for anti-EGFR–based therapy and 0.47 for bevacizumab-based therapy to achieve a median overall survival of approximately 32 months. Conclusions Early tumor shrinkage and depth of response serve as valuable prognostic markers in RAS wild-type metastatic CRC, particularly for patients treated with anti-EGFR antibodies. These findings highlight the potential role of early tumor shrinkage and depth of response in guiding treatment strategies and improving outcomes for patients with CRC.

Abstract Background: Tumor-informed circulating tumor (ct) DNA testing is recognized as a powerful predictor of CRC recurrence. However, the benefit of systemic therapy to prevent or delay clinical recurrence in patients (pts) with molecular recurrence after curative surgery remains uncertain. Methods: Pts with CRC who had undergone curative resection of primary and/or metastatic sites + standard of care (SoC) adjuvant treatment, if applicable, were enrolled in ALTAIR study if they (1) prospectively tested positive for ctDNA using a clinically validated, personalized assay (Signatera™, Natera, Inc.) within 3 months before enrollment and (2) had no recurrence on radiological (CT) imaging. Pts were randomized to receive FTD/TPI or placebo for 6 months. CT scans and ctDNA analyses were conducted every 2 months in the first year, every 3 months in the second year, and every 6 months in the third year. The primary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS), with secondary endpoints including ctDNA clearance, overall survival (OS), and adverse events. The study assumed a median DFS of 8 months in the placebo group, an HR of 0.667 for the FTD/TPI group, 0.05 significance level, 0.80 power, 2-year enrollment, and 1-year follow-up, requiring 240 pts and 190 DFS events. Baseline ctDNA levels were evaluated by mean tumor molecules (MTM)/ml. Results: Between July 2020 and June 2023, 243 pts were enrolled and randomized to FTD/TPI (n=122) or placebo (n=121). Baseline characteristics were balanced, and 96.3% of pts received SoC treatment postoperatively. FTD/TPI group had a median DFS of 9.30 months vs. 5.55 months in the placebo group, which did not reach statistical significance in the primary population (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.60-1.05; P = 0.107). The benefit was highly pronounced, however, in stage IV pts (HR: 0.53, P = 0.012). In addition, after excluding pts with low ctDNA levels (&lt;0.179 MTM/mL, threshold determined by ROC analysis) from both arms, significant benefit with FTD/TPI was observed in the primary population, resulting in an improved DFS (N=154, HR: 0.61 95% CI: 0.43-0.85; P = 0.003) with a median DFS of 8.12 months for FTD/TPI vs. 3.89 months for placebo; consistent with these findings, a trend toward higher ctDNA clearance rate was observed for the FTD/TPI group (8.33%), compared to placebo (4.05%).OS data remain immature, with 24 events reported across both arms. Grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 73.0% of the FTD/TPI arm versus 3.3% in the placebo arm, with no new safety signals. Conclusions: Although statistical significance was not reached in the primary population, FTD/TPI showed benefit in pts with high molecular tumor burden and/ or Stage IV disease, resulting in improved DFS. Citation Format: Hideaki Bando, Jun Watanabe, Masahito Kotaka, Nobuhisa Matsuhashi, Eiji Oki, Yoshito Komatsu, Manabu Shiozawa, Keiji Hirata, Yuji Miyamoto, Kun-Huei Yeh, Shruti Sharma, Vasily Aushev, Adham Jurdi, Minetta C. Liu, Alexey Aleshin, Ichiro Takemasa, Daisuke Kotani, Akihito Sato, Toshihiro Misumi, Yoshiaki Nakamura, Qian Shi, Hiroya Taniguchi, Takeshi Kato, Takayuki Yoshino. A randomized, double-blind, phase III study comparing trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) versus placebo in patients with molecular residual disease following curative resection of colorectal cancer (CRC): The ALTAIR Study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2025; Part 2 (Late-Breaking, Clinical Trial, and Invited Abstracts); 2025 Apr 25-30; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2025;85(8_Suppl_2):Abstract nr CT131.

PURPOSE This study aimed to investigate the clinicomolecular profiles and the efficacy of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-targeted therapy in HER2 -amplified biliary tract cancer (BTC). METHODS This study was an international collaboration that used combined data from the prospective SCRUM-Japan GOZILA and MONSTAR-SCREEN in Japan and retrospective reviews in the United States; patients with advanced BTC who had received systemic therapy were included. The clinicomolecular profiles were evaluated in an exploratory cohort, whereas the efficacy of HER2-targeted therapy was assessed in a biomarker-selected cohort. RESULTS Of the 439 patients in the exploratory cohort, 43 (10%) had HER2 amplification. The frequencies of coalterations were higher in patients with HER2 amplification versus patients without HER2 amplification including HER2 mutations (26% v 5%, P < .001), TP53 mutations (84% v 61%, P = .003), and BRAF amplification (9% v 2%, P = .030). There were no KRAS mutations identified in patients with HER2- amplified BTC. No significant difference in overall survival (OS) was observed between patients with and without HER2 amplification (median, 17.7 v 16.9 months; hazard ratio [HR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.65 to 1.40]). Of the 60 patients with HER2 -amplified BTC in the biomarker-selected cohort (43 from Japan and 17 from the United States), the OS was significantly longer in 29 patients who received HER2-targeted therapy than in those who did not receive HER2-targeted therapy (median, 24.3 v 12.1 months; HR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.23 to 0.82]). Multivariate analysis identified HER2-targeted therapy as an independent prognostic factor for OS (HR, 0.29 [95% CI, 0.14 to 0.58]; P < .001). CONCLUSION HER2 amplification was found in 10% of advanced BTC and was not identified as an independent prognostic factor for OS. Patients with HER2 -amplified BTC derive significant benefit from HER2-targeted therapy.