Weston, Susan A.

Background Perceived social isolation has been shown to have a negative impact on health outcomes, particularly among older adults. However, these relationships have not been fully examined among patients with heart failure. Methods and Results Residents from 11 southeast Minnesota counties with a first‐ever International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision ( ICD‐9 ) code 428 for heart failure between January 1, 2013, and March 31, 2015 (N=3867), were prospectively surveyed to measure perceived social isolation. A total of 2003 patients returned the survey (response rate, 52%); 1681 patients completed all questions and were retained for analysis. Among these patients (53% men; mean age, 73 years), ≈19% (n=312) had moderate perceived social isolation and 6% (n=108) had high perceived social isolation. After adjustment, patients reporting moderate perceived social isolation did not have an increased risk of death, hospitalizations, or emergency department visits compared with patients reporting low perceived social isolation; however, patients reporting high perceived social isolation had >3.5 times increased risk of death (hazard ratio, 3.74; 95% confidence interval [ CI ], 1.82–7.70), 68% increased risk of hospitalization (hazard ratio, 1.68; 95% CI , 1.18–2.39), and 57% increased risk of emergency department visits (hazard ratio, 1.57; 95% CI , 1.09–2.27). Compared with patients who self‐reported low perceived social isolation, patients reporting moderate perceived social isolation had a 16% increased risk of outpatient visits (rate ratio, 1.16; 95% CI , 1.03–1.31), whereas those reporting high perceived social isolation had a 26% increased risk (rate ratio, 1.26; 95% CI , 1.04–1.53). Conclusions In patients with heart failure, greater perceived social isolation is associated with an increased risk of death and healthcare use. Assessing perceived social isolation during the clinical encounter with a brief screening tool may help identify patients with heart failure at greater risk of poor outcomes.

Objectives To characterize the individual and combined effects of multimorbidity and functional limitation on healthcare use and mortality in a large, community cohort of individuals with heart failure (HF). Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Eleven southeastern Minnesota counties. Participants Individuals (mean age 74, 54% male) with a first‐ever HF code ( International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision code 428 or Tenth Revision code I50) between January 1, 2013 and March 31, 2016 (N=2,692). Measurements Eight activities of daily living measured using a survey on a Likert scale (1=without any difficulty, 5=unable to do; median=8). Participants with a score greater than 8 were categorized as having functional limitation. Multimorbidity was defined as having 2 or more noncardiac comorbidities. Results Twenty‐five percent of participants had neither multimorbidity nor functional limitation, 35% had multimorbidity, 9% had functional limitation, and 31% had both. After adjustment, participants with multimorbidity and functional limitation had greater risks of all outcomes (death: hazard ratio (HR)=4.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=3.03–8.00; emergency department (ED) visit: HR=3.67, 95% CI=2.94–4.59; hospitalization: HR=3.66, 95% CI=2.85–4.70; outpatient visit: HR=1.73, 95% CI=1.52–1.96) than those with neither. Participants with functional limitation alone had greater risks of death (HR=4.84, 95% CI=2.78–8.43), ED visits (HR=2.35, 95% CI=1.75–3.16), and hospitalizations (HR=2.10, 95% CI=1.52–2.88) but not outpatient visits. Those with multimorbidity alone had similar risks of ED visits and hospitalizations as those with functional limitation alone but were more likely to have outpatient visits (HR=1.50, 95% CI=1.34–1.67). Conclusion Individuals with both multimorbidity and functional limitation have the highest risk of death and healthcare use. Individuals with only functional limitation have similar rates of hospitalizations and ED visits as those with only multimorbidity, underscoring the need to consider both when managing individuals with HF.

Background Current American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines recommend the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) and TIMI (Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction) scores to assess myocardial infarction ( MI ) prognosis. Changes in the epidemiological characteristics of MI and the availability of new biomarkers warrant an assessment of the performance of these scores in contemporary practice. We assessed the following: (1) the performance of GRACE and TIMI to predict 1‐year mortality in a cohort of patients stratified by ST ‐segment elevation MI (STEMI) and non‐STEMI ( NSTEMI ) and (2) the incremental discriminatory power of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2, a myocardial fibrosis biomarker. Methods and Results Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with incident MI (N=1401) were recruited prospectively from November 1, 2002 to December 31, 2012 (mean age, 67 years; 61% men; 79% with NSTEMI ). Baseline data were used to calculate risk scores; soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 was measured in stored plasma samples obtained at index MI . C ‐statistics adapted to survival data were used to assess the discriminatory power of the risk scores and the improvement gained by adding other markers. During the first year of follow‐up, 190 patients (14%) died. The discriminatory performance to predict death was reasonable for GRACE and poor for TIMI , and was generally worse in those with NSTEMI versus those with STEMI. In people with NSTEMI , sequential addition of comorbidities and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 substantially improved the c ‐statistic over GRACE (from 0.78 to 0.80 to 0.84) and TIMI (from 0.61 to 0.73 to 0.81), respectively (all P ≤0.05). Conclusions Guideline‐recommended scores for risk assessment after MI underperform in contemporary community patients, particularly those with NSTEMI, which now represents most infarcts. Incorporating comorbidities and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity‐2 substantially improves risk prediction, thereby delineating opportunities to improve clinical care.

Background: A diagnosis of heart failure (HF) often requires a comprehensive lifestyle change to maintain disease stability. When patients with HF are married, the spouse frequently assumes the caregiving role. Our objectives were to describe the health of spouses of married patients with HF, and examine whether the health of a spouse impacts patient outcomes. Methods and Results: We identified 905 patients that were married at the time of incident HF diagnosis in Olmsted County, MN, from 2000 to 2012. Using Rochester Epidemiology Project resources, the patient and their spouse’s comprehensive longitudinal health histories were linked. Spousal health at patient HF diagnosis was assessed by comorbidity burden, self-reported difficulty with activities of daily living and prior hospitalizations. The associations of spousal health with patient outcomes and patient death with spousal outcomes were examined using Cox and Andersen–Gill models. Spouses of patients with HF were elderly (mean age, 71 years), often had comorbid conditions, and 16% had difficulty with ≥1 activities of daily living. After adjustment for patient age, sex, and comorbidity, there were no independent associations of spousal health and patient risk of death or hospitalization after HF diagnosis. However, the risk of hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.34; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–1.60; P =0.002) and death (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.60–2.75; P <0.001) increased in the surviving spouse after patient death. Conclusions: We found no evidence that the health of a spouse impacts patient outcomes after HF diagnosis. However, after a patient with HF dies, their surviving spouse’s risk of hospitalization and death increases.

Objectives To investigate the effect of the number and type of comorbid conditions on death and hospitalizations in individuals with incident heart failure ( HF ). Design Population‐based cohort study. Setting Olmsted County, Minnesota. Participants Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with incident HF from 2000 to 2010 (mean age 76 ± 14, 56% female) (N = 1,714). Measurements The prevalence of 16 chronic conditions obtained at HF diagnosis classified into three groups: cardiovascular ( CV ) related, other physical, and mental. Results The mean number of conditions per participant was 2.6 ± 1.5 for CV ‐related conditions, 1.3 ± 1.1 for other physical conditions, and 0.30 ± 0.61 for mental conditions. After a mean follow‐up of 4.2 years, 1,073 deaths and 6,306 hospitalizations had occurred. After adjustment for age, sex, ejection fraction, in‐ or outpatient status, and number of other conditions, an increase of one other physical condition was associated with a 14% ( HR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.08–1.20) greater risk of death and a 26% ( HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.20–1.32) greater risk of hospitalization, and an increase of one mental condition was associated with a 31% ( HR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.19–1.44) greater risk of death and an 18% ( HR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.07–1.29) greater risk of hospitalization. In contrast, an increase of one CV ‐related condition was not associated with greater risk of death and was associated with a 10% ( HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.06–1.15) greater risk of hospitalization. Conclusion CV ‐related conditions are the most common type of comorbid conditions in individuals with HF , but other physical and mental conditions are more strongly associated with death and hospitalizations. This underscores the effect of non‐ CV conditions on outcomes in HF .

Background While atrial fibrillation is a recognized risk factor for stroke, contemporary data on trends in stroke incidence after the diagnosis of atrial fibrillation are scarce. Methods and Results Olmsted County, MN residents with incident atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (collectively referred to as AF ) from 2000 to 2010 were identified. Cox regression determined associations of year of AF diagnosis with ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack ( TIA ) occurring through 2013. Among 3247 AF patients, 321 (10%) had an ischemic stroke/ TIA over a mean of 4.6 years (incidence rate [95% CI ] per 100 person‐years: 2.14 [1.91–2.38]). Two hundred thirty‐nine (7%) of 3265 AF patients experienced an ischemic stroke (incidence rate: 1.54 [1.35–1.75]). The risk of both outcomes remained unchanged over time after adjusting for demographics and comorbidities (hazard ratio [95% CI ] per year of AF diagnosis: 1.00 [0.96–1.04] for ischemic stroke/ TIA ; 1.01 [0.96–1.06] for ischemic stroke only). In analyses restricted to patients with prescription information, the rates of anticoagulation use did not change over time, reaching 50.8% at 1 year after AF diagnosis. Further adjustment for anticoagulation use did not alter the temporal trends in stroke incidence (hazard ratio [95% CI ] per year of AF diagnosis: 1.06 [0.97–1.15] for ischemic stroke/ TIA ; 1.08 [0.98–1.20] for ischemic stroke only). Conclusions Strokes/ TIA s are frequent after AF , occurring in 10% of patients after 5 years of follow‐up. The occurrence of stroke/ TIA did not decline over the last decade, which may be influenced by a leveling off of anticoagulation use. This concerning trend has major public health implications.

Background— Contemporary data are lacking on the prognostic importance of heart failure (HF) after myocardial infarction (MI). We evaluated the prognostic impact of HF post MI according to preserved/reduced ejection fraction and the timing of its occurrence. Methods and Results— All Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents (n=2596) with incident MI diagnosed in 1990 to 2010 and no prior HF were followed through March 2013. Cox models were used to examine (1) the hazard ratios for death associated with HF type and timing and (2) secular trends in survival by HF status. During a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, there were 1116 deaths, 634 in the 902 patients who developed HF (70%) and 482 in the 1694 patients who did not develop HF (28%). After adjustment for age and sex, HF as a time-dependent variable was strongly associated with mortality (hazard ratio =3.31, 95% confidence interval: 2.93–3.75), particularly from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio =4.20, 95% confidence interval: 3.50–5.03). Further adjustment for MI severity and comorbidity, acute treatment, and recurrent MI moderately attenuated these associations (hazard ratio =2.49 and 2.94 for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively). Mortality did not differ by ejection fraction, but was higher for delayed- versus early-onset HF ( P for heterogeneity =0.002). The age- and sex-adjusted 5-year survival estimates in 2001 to 2010 versus 1990 to 2000 were 82% and 81% among HF-free and 61% and 54% among HF patients, respectively ( P for heterogeneity of trends =0.05). Conclusions— HF markedly increases the risk of death after MI. This excess risk is similar regardless of ejection fraction but greater for delayed- versus early-onset HF. Mortality after MI declined over time, primarily as a result of improved HF survival.

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe authors sought to estimate incremental economic impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) and the timing of its onset in myocardial infarction (MI) patients.HypothesisConcurrent AF and its timing are associated with higher costs in MI patients.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included incident MI patients from Olmsted County, Minnesota, treated between November 1, 2002, and December 31, 2010. We compared inflation‐adjusted standardized costs accumulated between incident MI and end of follow‐up among 3 groups by AF status and timing: no AF, new‐onset AF (within 30 days after index MI), and prior AF. Multivariate adjustment of median costs accounted for right‐censoring in costs.ResultsThe final study cohort had 1389 patients, with 989 in no AF, 163 in new‐onset AF, and 237 in prior AF categories. Median follow‐up times were 3.98, 3.23, and 2.55 years, respectively. Mean age at index was 67 years, with significantly younger patients in the no AF group (64 years vs 76 and 77 years, respectively; P < 0.001). New‐onset and prior AF patients had more comorbid conditions (hypertension, heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). After accounting for differences in baseline characteristics, we found adjusted median (95% confidence interval) costs of $73 000 ($69 000‐$76 000) for no AF; $85 000 ($81 000‐$89 000) for new‐onset AF; and $97 000 ($94 000‐$100 000) for prior AF. Inpatient costs composed the largest share of total median costs (no AF, 82%; new‐onset AF, 84%; prior AF, 83%).ConclusionsAtrial fibrillation frequently coexists with MI and imposes incremental costs, mainly attributable to inpatient care. Timing of AF matters, as prior AF was found to be associated with higher costs than new‐onset AF.