Gray, Robert J.

LBA1 Background: In hormone receptor (HR)-positive, HER2-negative, axillary node (AN)-negative breast cancer, the 21-gene expression assay (Oncotype DX Recurrence Score [RS]) is prognostic for distant recurrence, prognostic for low recurrence with endocrine therapy alone if low (0-10), and predictive of chemotherapy benefit if high (26 or higher). We performed a prospective, randomized trial of endocrine therapy (ET) versus chemoendocrine therapy (CET) in women with a mid-range RS of 11-25. Methods: Eligibility criteria included women 18-75 years of age with HR-positive, HER2-negative, axillary node (AN)-negative breast cancer and tumors 1.1-5.0 cm in size (or 0.6-1.0 cm and int/high grade) and agreed to have chemotherapy assigned or randomized based on the RS. Women with a mid-range RS (11-25) were randomized to receive ET or CET. The primary endpoint was invasive disease-free survival (iDFS), and the trial was designed to show non-inferiority for ET alone by not rejecting equality (hazard ratio [HR] margin up to 1.322 for omission of chemotherapy, 1-sided type I error rate 10%, type II error rate 5%). The target sample size was adjusted to compensate for non-adherence to randomized treatment, and the protocol-specified final analysis was triggered after 835 iDFS events. Results: Of the 10,253 eligible women enrolled between 4/7/06-10/6/10, 6711 (65.5%) had a RS of 11-25 and adequate information. There were 836 iDFS events at final analysis with a median followup of 90 months. ET was non-inferior to CET for iDFS (HR 1.08, 95% confidence intervals [CI] 0.94, 1.24, p=0.26) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. ET was also non-inferior for distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI; HR 1.03, p=0.80), recurrence-free interval (RFI; HR 1.12, p=0.28), and overall survival (OS; HR 0.97, p=0.80). Nine year rates were similar for iDFS (83.3% vs. 84.3%), DRFI (94.5% vs. 95.0%), RFI (92.2% vs. 92.9%), and OS (93.9% vs. 93.8%). Recurrence accounted for 338 (41.6%) the first iDFS event, of which 199 (23.8%) were distant recurrences. Treatment interaction tests were significant for age (iDFS p=0.03; RFI p= 0.02), but not menopause, tumor size, grade, or RS (continuous or RS 11-15, 16-20, 21-25). Conclusions: In women with HR-positive, HER2-negative, AN-negative breast cancer and a RS of 11-25, adjuvant ET was not inferior to CET in the ITT analysis. (Funded by NCI, BCRF, and Komen Foundation.) Clinical trial information: NCT00310180.

36 Background: Black race is associated with worse outcomes in localized breast cancer. We evaluated the characteristics of patients enrolled in the Trial Assigning Individualized Options for Treatment (TAILORx) by race and ethnicity. Methods: The analysis included 10,071 evaluable patients with Recurrence Score (RS) data. Eligibility criteria included: (1) T1-2, N0 disease, (2) estrogen receptor (ER) and/or progesterone receptor (PR) positive disease that was also HER2/neu negative, (3) age 75 years or younger and medically appropriate for adjuvant systemic chemotherapy. Results: The study population included 8,501 whites (84%), 722 blacks (7%), 423 Asians (4%), and the remainder other/unknown race. With regard to ethnicity, 7,916 were nonHispanic (79%), 919 were Hispanic (9%), and 1,236 were of unreported ethnicity (12%). There was no significant difference in RS distribution (p = 0.14), median RS (17 vs. 17), and mean RS (19.6 vs. 18.4) in blacks compared with nonblacks. There was likewise no difference in Hispanic vs. nonHispanic ethnicity for RS distribution (p = 0.53), median RS (17 vs. 17), and mean RS (18.6 vs. 18.4). Blacks were significantly more likely to be younger (39% vs. 30% < 50 years), have larger tumors (37% vs. 31% > 2 cm), poor histologic grade (25% vs. 17%), and PR-negative disease (14% vs. 10%) (Chi square test p < 0.05). Hispanic women were also significantly younger (39% vs. 30% < 50 years), and demonstrated marginal but statistically significant differences in tumor size (65% vs. 69% > 2 cm), histologic grade (20% vs. 18% poor), and PR expression (12% vs. 10% negative) (Chi square test < 0.05). In 974 patients with information on body mass index (BMI), there was no correlation between BMI and RS (r = -0.04). BMI was higher for blacks than whites (medians 31.6 vs. 28.9, p = 0.02, Wilcoxon test), but not in Hispanics. Conclusions: In patients selected for participation in TAILORx there were no significant differences in RS by race, ethnicity, and BMI. Black and Hispanic patients were significantly younger, and blacks had tumors that were larger and more likely to be associated with poor grade. Clinical trial information: NCT00310180.

Purpose Recent studies suggest that tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) are associated with disease-free (DFS) and overall survival (OS) in operable triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). We seek to validate the prognostic impact of TILs in primary TNBCs in two adjuvant phase III trials conducted by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG). Patients and Methods Full-face hematoxylin and eosin–stained sections of 506 tumors from ECOG trials E2197 and E1199 were evaluated for density of TILs in intraepithelial (iTILs) and stromal compartments (sTILs). Patient cases of TNBC from E2197 and E1199 were randomly selected based on availability of sections. For the primary end point of DFS, association with TIL scores was determined by fitting proportional hazards models stratified on study. Secondary end points were OS and distant recurrence–free interval (DRFI). Reporting recommendations for tumor marker prognostic studies criteria were followed, and all analyses were prespecified. Results The majority of 481 evaluable cancers had TILs (sTILs, 80%; iTILs, 15%). With a median follow-up of 10.6 years, higher sTIL scores were associated with better prognosis; for every 10% increase in sTILs, a 14% reduction of risk of recurrence or death (P = .02), 18% reduction of risk of distant recurrence (P = .04), and 19% reduction of risk of death (P = .01) were observed. Multivariable analysis confirmed sTILs to be an independent prognostic marker of DFS, DRFI, and OS. Conclusion In two national randomized clinical trials using contemporary adjuvant chemotherapy, we confirm that stromal lymphocytic infiltration constitutes a robust prognostic factor in TNBCs. Studies assessing outcomes and therapeutic efficacies should consider stratification for this parameter.

Abstract Purpose: Clinically validated biomarkers for anti-angiogenesis agents are not available. We have previously reported associations between candidate VEGFA single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and overall survival (OS) in E2100. The associations between tumor VEGFA amplification and outcome are evaluated here. Experimental Design: E2100 was a phase III trial comparing paclitaxel with or without bevacizumab for patients with metastatic breast cancer. FISH to assess gene amplification status for VEGFA was conducted on paraffin-embedded tumors from 363 patients in E2100. Evaluation for association between amplification status and outcomes was conducted. Results: Estrogen receptor (ER)+ or progesterone receptor (PR)+ tumors were less likely to have VEGFA amplification than ER/PR− tumors (P = 0.020). VEGFA amplification was associated with worse OS (20.2 vs. 25.3 months; P = 0.013) in univariate analysis with a trend for worse OS in multivariate analysis (P = 0.08). There was a significant interaction between VEGFA amplification, hormone receptor status, and study arm. Patients with VEGFA amplification and triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC) or HER2 amplification had inferior OS (P = 0.047); amplification did not affect OS for those who were ER+ or PR+ and HER2−. Those who received bevacizumab with VEGFA amplification had inferior progression-free survival (PFS; P = 0.010) and OS (P = 0.042); no association was seen in the control arm. Test for interaction between study arm and VEGFA amplification with OS was not significant. Conclusion: VEGFA amplification in univariate analysis was associated with poor outcomes; this was particularly prominent in HER2+ or TNBCs. Additional studies are necessary to confirm the trend for poor OS seen on multivariate analysis for patients treated with bevacizumab. Clin Cancer Res; 19(5); 1281–9. ©2012 AACR.

Abstract Background: We have previously reported the results of surgical excision without irradiation for selected patients with DCIS in ECOG E5194, where the 5-year rates of local recurrence varied with age, grade, and lesion size (Hughes et al. J Clin Oncol 27:5319, 2009). New methods are needed to provide more accurate and reproducible assessment of recurrence risk. Methods: ECOG E5194 included 670 eligible patients with DCIS treated with surgical excision (≥ 3 mm negative margins) without irradiation, 228 of whom received tamoxifen. Patients had low or intermediate grade DCIS ≤ 2.5 cm, or high grade DCIS ≤ 1 cm. The Oncotype DX® assay was performed by quantitative RT-PCR using formalin fixed paraffin embedded tumor specimens from 327 patients (49% of the parent study). Recurrence Score® (RS) was calculated using the published algorithm. A new, prespecified DCIS Score™ was designed to predict recurrence using an optimized gene expression algorithm. The primary objective was to determine whether there was a significant association between the risk of an ipsilateral breast event (IBE) and the continuous DCIS Score in Cox models. 46 patients had an IBE (defined as ipsilateral local recurrence of DCIS [n=20] or invasive cancer [n=26]). Median follow-up was 8.8 years. Results: The 10-year IBE rates were 15.4% for low/intermediate grade DCIS and 15.1% for high-grade DCIS (as determined by central pathology review), and for invasive IBE, 5.6% and 9.8%, respectively. Comparison between local and expert grading showed substantial disagreement. Continuous DCIS Score was significantly associated with IBE (HR 2.34 per 50 units; 95% CI 1.15, 4.59; p=0.02) when adjusted for tamoxifen use (prespecified primary analysis) and with invasive IBE (HR 3.73; CI 1.34, 9.82; p=0.01). DCIS Score was significantly associated with outcome when evaluated by the prespecified risk groups (see Table). Similar results were observed with and without adjustment for tamoxifen use or for negative margin width. Features associated with IBE in multivariate models included menopausal status (HR 0.49; 95% CI 0.27, 0.90; p=0.02), tumor size (HR 1.52 per 5 mm; 95% CI 1.11, 2.01; p=0.01), and continuous DCIS Score (HR 2.41; 95% CI 1.15, 4.89; p=0.02). The standard RS, which is calculated using thresholding of many genes unlike the DCIS Score, was not associated with IBE or invasive IBE (p &gt; 0.6). Conclusions: We have prospectively validated a multigene assay that quantifies recurrence risk and complements traditional clinical and pathologic factors in selected patients with DCIS treated with surgical excision without irradiation. The DCIS Score provides a new clinical tool for individualized selection of treatment for patients with DCIS. Citation Information: Cancer Res 2011;71(24 Suppl):Abstract nr S4-6.

Abstract Purpose: Assessing impact of poor accrual on premature trial closure requires a relevant metric. We propose defining accrual sufficiency on apparent ability to address primary endpoints (PE) rather than attaining accrual targets. Experimental Design: All phase III trials open January 1, 1993, to December 31, 2002, by five U.S. oncology Clinical Trials Cooperative Groups (CTCG) were evaluated for accrual sufficiency and scientific results. Sufficient accrual included meeting accrual target, CTCGs documentation attesting adequate accrual, or conclusive results at interim analysis; insufficient accrual included poor accrual as cited closure reason or other reasons rendering a trial unable to address its primary endpoints. Closure rates based on our accrual sufficiency definition are compared with rates of meeting accrual targets and addressing the primary endpoints. A percentage of target accrual above which trials commonly answer the intended scientific question was identified to serve as an alternative to meeting full target accrual in designating accrual success. Results: Of 238 eligible trials, 158 (66%) closed with sufficient accrual. Among 80 trials with insufficient accrual, 70 (29%) closed specifically because of poor accrual. Inadequate accrual rates are overemphasized when defining accrual success solely by meeting accrual targets. Nearly 75% of trials conclusively addressed the primary endpoints with positive results in 39% of trials. Exceeding 80% of target accrual serves as a reliable proxy for answering the intended scientific question. Conclusions: Approximately one third of phase III trials closed with insufficient accrual to address the primary endpoints, primarily due to poor accrual. Defining accrual sufficiency broader than meeting accrual targets represents a fairer account of trial closures. Clin Cancer Res; 18(1); 256–62. ©2011 AACR.

Background Research on barriers to accrual has typically emphasized factors influencing participation after trial activation. Purpose We sought to identify factors influencing trial design and accrual predictions prior to trial activation associated with sufficient accrual. Methods A 30-question web-based survey was sent to the study chair and lead statistician for all 248 phase III trials open in 1993–2002 by five Clinical Trials Cooperative Groups. Questions addressed prior trial experience, trial design elements, accrual predictions, and perceived accrual influences. Accrual sufficiency categorization was derived from Clinical Trials Cooperative Group records: sufficient accrual included trials closed with complete accrual or at interim analysis, insufficient accrual included trials closed with inadequate accrual. Responses were analyzed by respondent role (study chair/lead statistician) and accrual sufficiency. Results Three hundred and nine eligible responses were included (response rate, 63%; lead statisticians, 81%; and study chairs, 45%), representing trials with sufficient (63%) and insufficient accruals (37%). Study chair seniority or lead statistician experience was not linked to accrual sufficiency. Literature review, study chair's personal experience, and expert opinion within Clinical Trials Cooperative Group most commonly influenced control arm selection. Clinical Trials Cooperative Group experience most influenced accrual predictions. These influences were not associated with accrual sufficiency. Among respondents citing accrual difficulties (41%), factors negatively influencing accrual were not consistently identified. Respondents credited three factors with positively influencing accrual: clinical relevance of study, lack of competing trials, and protocol paralleling normal practice. Limitations Perceptions of lead statisticians and study chairs may not accurately reflect accrual barriers encountered by participating physicians or patients. Survey responses may be subject to recall bias. Conclusion Consistent factors explaining poor accrual were not identified, suggesting reasons for poor accrual are not well understood and warrant further study. Alternate strategies for accrual prediction are needed since Clinical Trials Cooperative Group experience is linked to successful and unsuccessful accrual.

Background A major challenge for randomized phase III oncology trials is the frequent low rates of patient enrollment, resulting in high rates of premature closure due to insufficient accrual. Purpose We conducted a pilot study to determine the extent of trial closure due to poor accrual, feasibility of identifying trial factors associated with sufficient accrual, impact of redesign strategies on trial accrual, and accrual benchmarks designating high failure risk in the clinical trials cooperative group (CTCG) setting. Methods A subset of phase III trials opened by five CTCGs between August 1991 and March 2004 was evaluated. Design elements, experimental agents, redesign strategies, and pretrial accrual assessment supporting accrual predictions were abstracted from CTCG documents. Percent actual/predicted accrual rate averaged per month was calculated. Trials were categorized as having sufficient or insufficient accrual based on reason for trial termination. Analyses included univariate and bivariate summaries to identify potential trial factors associated with accrual sufficiency. Results Among 40 trials from one CTCG, 21 (52.5%) trials closed due to insufficient accrual. In 82 trials from five CTCGs, therapeutic trials accrued sufficiently more often than nontherapeutic trials (59% vs 27%, p = 0.05). Trials including pretrial accrual assessment more often achieved sufficient accrual than those without (67% vs 47%, p = 0.08). Fewer exclusion criteria, shorter consent forms, other CTCG participation, and trial design simplicity were not associated with achieving sufficient accrual. Trials accruing at a rate much lower than predicted (<35% actual/predicted accrual rate) were consistently closed due to insufficient accrual. Limitations This trial subset under-represents certain experimental modalities. Data sources do not allow accounting for all factors potentially related to accrual success. Conclusion Trial closure due to insufficient accrual is common. Certain trial design factors appear associated with attaining sufficient accrual. Defining accrual benchmarks for early trial termination or redesign is feasible, but better accrual prediction methods are critically needed. Future studies should focus on identifying trial factors that allow more accurate accrual predictions and strategies that can salvage open trials experiencing slow accrual. Clinical Trials 2010; 7: 312—321. http://ctj.sagepub.com