Freeman, Roy

Abstract Background The Movement Disorder Society (MDS) research criteria for possible prodromal multiple system atrophy (PP‐MSA) have not been prospectively validated. Objective To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the PP‐MSA criteria in a longitudinal cohort of patients with pure autonomic failure (PAF) and to assess whether additional clinical features improve their predictive value. Methods Seventy‐six patients with PAF enrolled across eight centers in the Natural History Study of the Synucleinopathies were followed for ≥6 years or until phenoconversion. Participants were classified according to MDS PP‐MSA criteria and followed for development of MSA, Parkinson's disease, or dementia with Lewy bodies. Diagnostic performance was assessed longitudinally. Analyses were repeated using a stricter olfactory threshold (University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test [UPSIT]≤28) as an exclusion criterion. Results Thirty‐eight participants met PP‐MSA criteria, of whom 12 phenoconverted to MSA within 6 years. Sensitivity was 100% at year 1 and 92% at year 6, whereas specificity ranged from 56% to 67%. Positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 21% to 34%. Applying a stricter olfactory threshold improved specificity (90%–97%) and PPV (53%–83%), with a modest reduction in sensitivity (to 83%). Participants who phenoconverted to MSA were younger, had more severe urinary dysfunction, and greater orthostatic heart rate responses. Conclusions The PP‐MSA criteria demonstrate high sensitivity but limited specificity in patients with PAF. A stricter olfactory threshold improves diagnostic performance and may enhance cohort enrichment for clinical trials. © 2026 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.