Brown, Peter de Nully

Abstract A short diagnosis-to-treatment interval independently predicts inferior outcomes in follicular lymphoma. Using international discovery and validation cohorts, we demonstrate its prognostic value beyond established prognostic indices, with implications for risk stratification, clinical trial design, and interpretation.

Abstract Introduction Short diagnosis-to-treatment interval (DTI) is associated with aggressive disease biology and inferior outcomes in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and is recognized as a potential source of selection bias in clinical trials if not properly addressed. However, its prognostic significance in follicular lymphoma (FL) remains poorly characterized. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of DTI in newly diagnosed FL patients who received frontline (1L) immunochemotherapy (IC), using a large international dataset and an independent external validation cohort. Methods For the discovery dataset, we evaluated patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2018 from ten observational cohorts as part of the FLIPI24 Consortium. External validation was conducted using data from patients enrolled in the Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) Cohort between 2010 and 2015. All patients had FL grade 1–3A and received 1L IC within 100 days of diagnosis. Patients with a concurrent DLBCL were excluded. Missing baseline laboratory values were addressed via multiple imputation. The primary endpoint was event-free survival at 24 months (EFS24); secondary endpoint was 5-year overall survival (OS), both calculated from treatment initiation. DTI was analyzed as continuous (via splines) and dichotomized variable (≤14 vs >14 days; as defined in DLBCL). Results In the discovery cohort (n=3,907), median age was 61 years (IQR 53–69), and 50% were male; 49% of patients were high-risk according to FLIPI, 26% according to PRIMA-PI, and 38% according to FLIPI24. Included patients received R-CHOP (54%), R-CVP (26%), or B-R (20%) as 1L treatment, followed by anti-CD20 maintenance in 60%. The median DTI was 30 days (IQR 17–48). Using the 14-day cut-off, 851 patients (22%) had short DTI. These patients had more adverse baseline characteristics, including B symptoms (42% vs 32%, P<0.01), ECOG performance status ≥2 (15% vs 8%, P<0.01), elevated LDH (51% vs 40%, P<0.01), hemoglobin <12 g/dL (30% vs 17%, P<0.01), and elevated β2-microglobulin (56% vs 44%, P<0.01). Prognostic indices (PIs) were also more frequently high-risk in the short-DTI group: FLIPI (56% vs 47%), PRIMA-PI (36% vs 24%), and FLIPI24 (51% vs 34%, all P<0.01). Spline modeling showed a decreasing EFS24 rate with increasing DTI, reaching a plateau at 30–40 days. In logistic regression model, each additional week of DTI improved EFS24 (OR 0.92, P<0.01). DTI attenuated but remained prognostic after adjusting for PIs (OR 0.93 for FLIPI, 0.95 for PRIMA-PI, 0.96 for FLIPI24, all P<0.01). When analyzed as a dichotomized variable, short DTI was associated with inferior EFS24: OR 1.74 adjusted for FLIPI, 1.63 for PRIMA-PI, and 1.53 for FLIPI24 (all P<0.01). The 2-year EFS of short vs long DTI groups was 71% vs 82% (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.34–1.67, P<0.01), 5-year OS was 80% vs 86% (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.21–1.56, P<0.01), and the 5-year cumulative risk of histologic transformation was 7.7% vs. 5.4% (P<0.01). In the validation cohort (n=516), median age was 61 years (IQR 52–69 years), 55% were male; 36% of patients were high-risk according to FLIPI; 29% according to PRIMA-PI, and 33% according to FLIPI24. Patients received B-R (59%) or R-CHOP (41%) as 1L treatment. The median DTI was 31 days (IQR 19–48), 84 patients (16%) had DTI ≤14 days. Similar patterns were observed; patients with short DTI had adverse baseline characteristics, PIs, and shorter 2-year EFS (72% vs 84%, HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.13–2.55, P=0.01). DTI remained associated with EFS24 when analyzed as a continuous variable (per week: OR 0.88 unadjusted, 0.90 with FLIPI, 0.89 with PRIMA-PI, and 0.89 with FLIPI24), and dichotomized (≤14 vs >14 days: OR 1.83 adjusted for FLIPI, 1.88 for PRIMA-PI, and 1.73 for FLIPI24). Conclusion Short DTI, defined as ≤14 days (observed in 22% of FL patients vs 46% in DLBCL), is a strong and independent predictor of inferior outcomes in newly diagnosed FL patients treated with IC. While DTI correlates with adverse baseline features and established PIs, it retains independent prognostic value. Although a 14-day threshold is reasonable for risk modeling, DTI contains greater informational value when modeled as a continuous variable. Among PIs, FLIPI24 most strongly attenuated the DTI effect, underscoring its superior discriminative power over FLIPI and PRIMA-PI. Clinical trials designs should mitigate any potential barriers to enrollment of FL patients requiring urgent therapy.

PURPOSE Although most patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) can expect an indolent course, progressive lymphoma remains the primary cause of death during the first decade after diagnosis. Progression of disease within 24 months (POD24) of starting first-line (1L) immunochemotherapy defines a high-risk population with poor survival, but better risk stratification at diagnosis is needed. METHODS The FLIPI24 model was developed and internally validated to predict 24-month event rates using individual data from 4,485 patients treated with 1L immunochemotherapy from 10 observational cohorts of FL. Overall and cause-specific survival was further evaluated in FLIPI24 risk groups. External validation in the 1L immunochemotherapy setting was performed using the prospective observational Lymphoma Epidemiology of Outcomes (LEO) cohort (N = 565) and three randomized phase III trials (N = 3,192); extension to all patients with FL (any 1L therapy) was performed in the LEO cohort (N = 1,445) and its Molecular Epidemiology Resource subcohort (N = 1,074). RESULTS The FLIPI24 model uses age and four blood-based variables (hemoglobin, lactate dehydrogenase, beta-2 microglobulin, and WBC count). FLIPI24 showed consistent performance across validation and extension data sets, which was superior to existing prognostic tools. Across the four external immunochemotherapy validation data sets, patients with high-risk FLIPI24 (23%-32% of patients) had significantly higher 24-month event rates (22%-35%) and inferior 5-year overall survival (77%-83%) compared with patients with low-risk FLIPI24 (29%-31% of patients, 24-month event rates: 10%-12%; 5-year OS: 96%-97%). Results were consistent when evaluating lymphoma-related death and when extended to all patients with FL. CONCLUSION The FLIPI24 model robustly stratifies, at diagnosis, patients with FL at increased risk of lymphoma-related death versus patients with very low lymphoma-related mortality during the first decade after diagnosis. FLIPI24 can be used to enrich future clinical trial designs in newly diagnosed FL.

ABSTRACTThe development of new first‐line treatments for patients with follicular lymphoma (FL) is becoming increasingly challenging due to already excellent survival outcomes. The present study investigated the outcomes of patients with FL who underwent contemporary first‐line therapies but would not have been eligible for inclusion in recent trials and explored how commonly used in/exclusion criteria impacted their survival outcomes. This study included adult patients diagnosed with FL in the period 2000–2018 registered in the Danish Lymphoma Registry. Through searches on ClinicalTrials.gov, four recent 1st line phase 3 randomized controlled trials with R‐Bendamustine, R‐CVP, and/or R‐CHOP as control or experimental arms were included. Inclusion and exclusion criteria for each trial were retrieved and categorized. Patients were then divided into trial‐eligible and ineligible groups according to blood test results correlated to organ function and ECOG performance score (PS). Survival outcomes were significantly worse among trial‐ineligible patients, with adjusted differences between trial‐eligible and ineligible patients of 12%–20% in five‐year overall survival (OS) overall. Inclusion criteria based on PS and renal function were the main drivers of OS differences. More inclusive trials will lead to faster recruitment and secure focus on developing medicines for the group of patients with the worst outcomes.

Abstract Background: Generalizability of results from clinical trials with narrow in-/exclusion criteria are a concern as significant deviations in efficacy or toxicity may occur when treatments are used in populations of elderly and more comorbid patients. The cost-effectiveness of novel therapies may also be less favorable if real-world treatment effects are inferior to clinical trial results. In diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), a recent US study showed that baseline organ function-based eligibility criteria had substantial impact on survival with ineligible patients being at higher risk of dying from progressive lymphoma (1). Aims: The present study explored the impact of commonly used in-/exclusion criteria in key completed and ongoing first line DLBCL trials on survival in a Danish population-based study of patients with de novo DLBCL. Patients and methods: DLBCL patients enrolled in the Danish Lymphoma Registry (LYFO) and treated with R-CHOP in the period 2008-19 were screened for completeness of data to match trial eligibility criteria. The key organ/hematology eligibility criteria of completed or ongoing all-comers DLBCL studies (REMoDL-B, Goya, Polarix and Hovon84) were collected (bilirubin, ALAT, creatinine, eGFR, leucocytes, neutrophils, thrombocytes and ECOG). First, high-level trial matching on disease risk group (Ann Arbor, bulky disease, international prognostic index (IPI)) and age-groups were performed so that patients assessed for trial eligibility had a relevant risk profile. Subsequently, patients were divided into eligible or ineligible based on selected in/exclusion criteria. For each trial, overall survival (OS) from treatment start were compared for eligible and ineligible patients using inverse probability of treatment weighted Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Crude OS and OS adjusted for residual imbalances in IPI and age were estimated. When possible, the OS curves from standard arms of the original trials were superimposed on OS plots. For each trial, the Shapley value of each criterion was calculated, using the HRs as well as the 5y restricted loss of lifetimes (RLOLs). The Shapley value measures the average influence of each eligibility criterion on the estimated IPI- and age-adjusted HR/5y RLOL. Results: A total of 3,150 R-CHOP treated DLBCL patients without discordant low-grade lymphoma were identified in the surveyed period. A total of 1,666 patients (52.89% of surveyed population) were available for the REMoDL-B trial, 1,431 (45.43%) for Goya, 1,125 (35.71%) for Polarix, and 1,432 (45.46%) for Hovon84. The variations of numbers for each trial evaluation were explained by trial inclusion criteria and missing data in LYFO. Crude OS estimates for patients with and without all necessary information were similar (data not shown). OS curves for eligible and ineligible patients are shown in Figure 1 and, when possible, with superimposed trial results (Goya, REMoDL-B, Hovon84). Survival differences between trial eligible and ineligible patients were robust to further adjustment of imbalances in age and IPI. Associated crude and adjusted 2 and 5-year OS rates for trial eligible and ineligible are shown in Table 1. The largest numerical difference in 2-year crude OS between eligible and ineligible was observed in the REMoDL-B trial (ineligible had 26% lower 2-year OS rate). The largest numerical difference in 2-year OS adjusted for IPI and age between eligible and ineligible was observed for the Polarix trial (ineligible had 17% lower 2-year OS rate). The strongest drivers of OS differences between trial eligible and ineligible patients in terms of the tested eligibility criteria were thrombocyte count (HR-contribution calculated from Shapley values -0.11; -0.14) and ECOG (HR-contribution -0.09; -0.21). Liver function parameters (bilirubin and ALAT) had low impact on OS (HR-contribution 0.00; -0.05 and 0.00; 0.07). Conclusions: The present population-based study confirms that trial ineligible patients have worse survival even after adjustments in imbalances in age and disease risk category. Thus, trial eligibility criteria have substantial impact on generalizability of results to a wider unselected population. Interestingly, the trial eligible patients identified in the present study had very similar outcomes to R-CHOP treated patients in the original trials supporting the possible use of RWD as synthetic control arms. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Maurer: Kite Pharma: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Morphosys: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Research Funding; Nanostring: Research Funding; Genentech: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Pfizer: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Jørgensen: Novartis: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy; Roche: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy. Larsen: BMS: Consultancy; Novartis: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Odense University Hospital, Denmark: Current Employment; Gilead: Consultancy. Clausen: Abbvie: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees, Other: Travel expences ASH 2019; Gilead: Consultancy, Other: Travel expences 15th ICML ; Janssen: Honoraria, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Poulsen: Abbvie: Consultancy; Janssen: Consultancy. El-Galaly: Abbvie: Other: Speakers fee; ROCHE Ltd: Ended employment in the past 24 months.

Abstract Disease progression after frontline therapy for Diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is a clinically significant event. Patients who experience early progression or have refractory disease have especially poor outcomes. Simple, clinically applicable prognostic tools are needed for selecting patients for consideration for novel therapies and prognostication in the relapsed/refractory (R/R) setting. Model building was performed in patients from the Surrogate endpoints in aggressive lymphoma (SEAL) consortium with disease progression after frontline immunochemotherapy. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) measured from date of progression. Validation was performed in the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic SPORE Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) and Danish National Lymphoma Register (LYFO) cohorts. Model performance was assessed using time‐dependent concordance indices (c‐statistic) and calibration with metrics evaluated at 2 years from progression. Note, 1234 of 5112 patients treated with frontline immunochemotherapy in the SEAL consortium developed progressive disease. Time to progression on immunochemotherapy and age at progression were strongly associated with post‐progression OS (both p < 0.001). A prognostic model was developed incorporating spline fit for both variables. The model had good concordance in the discovery (0.67) and validation sets (LYFO c = 0.64, MER c = 0.68) with generally good calibration. Time to progression on frontline therapy is strongly associated with post‐progression OS in DLBCL. We developed and validated a simple to apply clinical prognostic tool in the R/R setting. The useful prediction of expected outcomes in R/R DLBCL and can inform treatment decisions such as considerations for CAR‐T therapy as well as trial designs. The model is available in smartphone‐based point of care applications.