Thibodeau, Stephen N.

Abstract We used deep learning (DL) to predict multiple genetic biomarkers of colorectal cancer (CRC) from routine histopathology images, aiming to identify morphological changes associated with the mutational profile of tumors. A new Transformer-based prediction model was developed which can simultaneously predict multiple biomarkers from a single histopathology image. We compared the performance of the multi-target approach to conventional single-target models. We analyzed five patient cohorts from the Genetics and Epidemiology of CRC Consortium (GECCO) with colorectal cancer (N=1,385 patients). Our model was trained on an internal data set (N=739) to predict the presence of >200 genetic alterations, focusing on genes with non-silent mutations and mutational signatures, which were assessed using targeted sequencing. We used a 7-fold cross validation and validated the model on an independent, external data set (N=646). Morphological features of microsatellite instability (MSI) are detectable by DL models in histopathology images, making MSI a potential confounding factor. Thus, we also assessed whether our model can predict genetic alterations regardless of MSI status, or whether the model identifies the MSI phenotype. For the majority of biomarkers, the multi-target transformer reached a higher prediction performance as measured by the mean Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) Curve and lower standard deviation than single-target DL models. For the external validation set, the mean AUROC of the multi-target versus the single-target model was 0.78 (+/- 0.01) versus 0.72 (+/- 0.06) for BRAF mutations, 0.88 (+/- 0.01) versus 0.86 (+/- 0.03) for hypermutation status, 0.94 (+/- 0.01) versus 0.91 (+/- 0.02) for MSI, 0.86 (+/- 0.01) versus 0.80 (+/- 0.05) for RNF43 mutations and 0.72 (+/- 0.02) versus 0.69 (+/- 0.05) for TP53 mutations, respectively. However, our analysis of the individual prediction scores suggests that the model does not identify the phenotype of the alterations themselves. Instead, the model seems to determine the status of specific genetic alterations based on their correlation with MSI. Consequently, biomarkers which are associated with microsatellite stability have prediction scores negatively correlated with predicted MSI scores. Conversely, biomarkers which are associated with MSI have prediction scores positively correlated with predicted MSI scores. Our results demonstrate potential benefits of multi-target DL models in improving the predictive power and efficacy of histology-based biomarker extraction compared to single-target DL models. However, our results crucially highlight the importance of considering potential confounders, such as MSI status in CRC, and emphasize the need for extensive analysis beyond AUROC in studies focusing on DL-based biomarker detection. Citation Format: Marco Gustav, Marko van Treeck, Zunamys I. Carrero, Chiara M. Loeffler, Nic G. Reitsam, Bruno Märkl, Asier Rabasco Meneghetti, Lisa A. Boardman, Amy J. French, Ellen L. Goode, Andrea Gsur, Stefanie Brezina, Marc J. Gunter, Neil Murphy, Paul Limburg, Stephen Thibodeau, Sebastian Foersch, Robert Steinfelder, Tabitha Harrison, Ulrike Peters, Amanda Phipps, Jakob N. Kather. Assessing microsatellite instability dominance in colorectal cancer phenotype: A multi-study initiative using multi-target transformers for genomic biomarker prediction [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 4924.

Abstract Colorectal cancer risk can be impacted by genetic, environmental, and lifestyle factors, including diet and obesity. Gene-environment interactions (G × E) can provide biological insights into the effects of obesity on colorectal cancer risk. Here, we assessed potential genome-wide G × E interactions between body mass index (BMI) and common SNPs for colorectal cancer risk using data from 36,415 colorectal cancer cases and 48,451 controls from three international colorectal cancer consortia (CCFR, CORECT, and GECCO). The G × E tests included the conventional logistic regression using multiplicative terms (one degree of freedom, 1DF test), the two-step EDGE method, and the joint 3DF test, each of which is powerful for detecting G × E interactions under specific conditions. BMI was associated with higher colorectal cancer risk. The two-step approach revealed a statistically significant G×BMI interaction located within the Formin 1/Gremlin 1 (FMN1/GREM1) gene region (rs58349661). This SNP was also identified by the 3DF test, with a suggestive statistical significance in the 1DF test. Among participants with the CC genotype of rs58349661, overweight and obesity categories were associated with higher colorectal cancer risk, whereas null associations were observed across BMI categories in those with the TT genotype. Using data from three large international consortia, this study discovered a locus in the FMN1/GREM1 gene region that interacts with BMI on the association with colorectal cancer risk. Further studies should examine the potential mechanisms through which this locus modifies the etiologic link between obesity and colorectal cancer. Significance: This gene-environment interaction analysis revealed a genetic locus in FMN1/GREM1 that interacts with body mass index in colorectal cancer risk, suggesting potential implications for precision prevention strategies.

INTRODUCTION: Early-onset colorectal cancer diagnosed before the age of 50 years has been increasing. Likely reflecting the pathogenic role of the intestinal microbiome, which gradually changes across the entire colorectal length, the prevalence of certain tumor molecular characteristics gradually changes along colorectal subsites. Understanding how colorectal tumor molecular features differ by age and tumor location is important in personalized patient management. METHODS: Using 14,004 cases with colorectal cancer including 3,089 early-onset cases, we examined microsatellite instability (MSI), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and KRAS and BRAF mutations in carcinomas of the cecum, ascending colon, transverse colon, descending colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum and compared early-onset cases with later-onset cases. RESULTS: The proportions of MSI-high, CIMP-high, and BRAF -mutated early-onset tumors were lowest in the rectum (8.8%, 3.4%, and 3.5%, respectively) and highest in the ascending colon (46% MSI-high; 15% CIMP-high) or transverse colon (8.6% BRAF -mutated) (all P trend <0.001 across the rectum to ascending colon). Compared with later-onset tumors, early-onset tumors showed a higher prevalence of MSI-high status and a lower prevalence of CIMP-high status and BRAF mutations in most subsites. KRAS mutation prevalence was higher in the cecum compared with that in the other subsites in both early-onset and later-onset tumors ( P < 0.001). Notably, later-onset MSI-high tumors showed a continuous decrease in KRAS mutation prevalence from the rectum (36%) to ascending colon (9%; P trend <0.001), followed by an increase in the cecum (14%), while early-onset MSI-high cancers showed no such trend. DISCUSSION: Our findings support biogeographical and pathogenic heterogeneity of colorectal carcinomas in different colorectal subsites and age groups.

Abstract Background Obesity is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), but the evidence for the association is inconsistent across molecular subtypes of the disease. Methods We pooled data on body mass index (BMI), tumor microsatellite instability status, CpG island methylator phenotype status, BRAF and KRAS mutations, and Jass classification types for 11 872 CRC cases and 11 013 controls from 11 observational studies. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for covariables. Results Higher BMI was associated with increased CRC risk (OR per 5 kg/m2 = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.22). The positive association was stronger for men than women but similar across tumor subtypes defined by individual molecular markers. In analyses by Jass type, higher BMI was associated with elevated CRC risk for types 1-4 cases but not for type 5 CRC cases (considered familial-like/Lynch syndrome microsatellite instability-H, CpG island methylator phenotype-low or negative, BRAF-wild type, KRAS-wild type, OR = 1.04, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.20). This pattern of associations for BMI and Jass types was consistent by sex and design of contributing studies (cohort or case-control). Conclusions In contrast to previous reports with fewer study participants, we found limited evidence of heterogeneity for the association between BMI and CRC risk according to molecular subtype, suggesting that obesity influences nearly all major pathways involved in colorectal carcinogenesis. The null association observed for the Jass type 5 suggests that BMI is not a risk factor for the development of CRC for individuals with Lynch syndrome.

Abstract Background The use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) may interact with genetic variants to influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Methods We conducted a genome-wide, gene-environment interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the use of any MHT, estrogen only, and combined estrogen-progestogen therapy with CRC risk, among 28 486 postmenopausal women (11 519 CRC patients and 16 967 participants without CRC) from 38 studies, using logistic regression, 2-step method, and 2– or 3–degree-of-freedom joint test. A set-based score test was applied for rare genetic variants. Results The use of any MHT, estrogen only and estrogen-progestogen were associated with a reduced CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.78; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.79; and OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.90, respectively). The 2-step method identified a statistically significant interaction between a GRIN2B variant rs117868593 and MHT use, whereby MHT-associated CRC risk was statistically significantly reduced in women with the GG genotype (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.72) but not within strata of GC or CC genotypes. A statistically significant interaction between a DCBLD1 intronic variant at 6q22.1 (rs10782186) and MHT use was identified by the 2–degree-of-freedom joint test. The MHT-associated CRC risk was reduced with increasing number of rs10782186-C alleles, showing odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.87) for TT, 0.68 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.73) for TC, and 0.66 (95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74) for CC genotypes. In addition, 5 genes in rare variant analysis showed suggestive interactions with MHT (2-sided P &lt; 1.2 × 10−4). Conclusion Genetic variants that modify the association between MHT and CRC risk were identified, offering new insights into pathways of CRC carcinogenesis and potential mechanisms involved.

Abstract Background: Currently known associations between common genetic variants and colorectal cancer explain less than half of its heritability of 25%. As alcohol consumption has a J-shape association with colorectal cancer risk, nondrinking and heavy drinking are both risk factors for colorectal cancer. Methods: Individual-level data was pooled from the Colon Cancer Family Registry, Colorectal Transdisciplinary Study, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium to compare nondrinkers (≤1 g/day) and heavy drinkers (&gt;28 g/day) with light-to-moderate drinkers (1–28 g/day) in GxE analyses. To improve power, we implemented joint 2df and 3df tests and a novel two-step method that modifies the weighted hypothesis testing framework. We prioritized putative causal variants by predicting allelic effects using support vector machine models. Results: For nondrinking as compared with light-to-moderate drinking, the hybrid two-step approach identified 13 significant SNPs with pairwise r2 &gt; 0.9 in the 10q24.2/COX15 region. When stratified by alcohol intake, the A allele of lead SNP rs2300985 has a dose–response increase in risk of colorectal cancer as compared with the G allele in light-to-moderate drinkers [OR for GA genotype = 1.11; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06–1.17; OR for AA genotype = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14–1.31], but not in nondrinkers or heavy drinkers. Among the correlated candidate SNPs in the 10q24.2/COX15 region, rs1318920 was predicted to disrupt an HNF4 transcription factor binding motif. Conclusions: Our study suggests that the association with colorectal cancer in 10q24.2/COX15 observed in genome-wide association study is strongest in nondrinkers. We also identified rs1318920 as the putative causal regulatory variant for the region. Impact: The study identifies multifaceted evidence of a possible functional effect for rs1318920.

AbstractDiabetes is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer. However, colorectal cancer is a heterogeneous disease and it is not well understood whether diabetes is more strongly associated with some tumor molecular subtypes than others. A better understanding of the association between diabetes and colorectal cancer according to molecular subtypes could provide important insights into the biology of this association. We used data on lifestyle and clinical characteristics from the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) and the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO), including 9756 colorectal cancer cases (with tumor marker data) and 9985 controls, to evaluate associations between reported diabetes and risk of colorectal cancer according to molecular subtypes. Tumor markers included BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite instability and CpG island methylator phenotype. In the multinomial logistic regression model, comparing colorectal cancer cases to cancer‐free controls, diabetes was positively associated with colorectal cancer regardless of subtype. The highest OR estimate was found for BRAF‐mutated colorectal cancer, n = 1086 (ORfully adj: 1.67, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.36‐2.05), with an attenuated association observed between diabetes and colorectal cancer without BRAF‐mutations, n = 7959 (ORfully adj: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.19‐1.48). In the case only analysis, BRAF‐mutation was differentially associated with diabetes (Pdifference = .03). For the other markers, associations with diabetes were similar across tumor subtypes. In conclusion, our study confirms the established association between diabetes and colorectal cancer risk, and suggests that it particularly increases the risk of BRAF‐mutated tumors.

Abstract Background: Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum) activates oncogenic signaling pathways and induces inflammation to promote colorectal carcinogenesis. Methods: We characterized F. nucleatum and its subspecies in colorectal tumors and examined associations with tumor characteristics and colorectal cancer–specific survival. We conducted deep sequencing of nusA, nusG, and bacterial 16s rRNA genes in tumors from 1,994 patients with colorectal cancer and assessed associations between F. nucleatum presence and clinical characteristics, colorectal cancer–specific mortality, and somatic mutations. Results: F. nucleatum, which was present in 10.3% of tumors, was detected in a higher proportion of right-sided and advanced-stage tumors, particularly subspecies animalis. Presence of F. nucleatum was associated with higher colorectal cancer–specific mortality (HR, 1.97; P = 0.0004). This association was restricted to nonhypermutated, microsatellite-stable tumors (HR, 2.13; P = 0.0002) and those who received chemotherapy [HR, 1.92; confidence interval (CI), 1.07–3.45; P = 0.029). Only F. nucleatum subspecies animalis, the main subspecies detected (65.8%), was associated with colorectal cancer–specific mortality (HR, 2.16; P = 0.0016), subspecies vincentii and nucleatum were not (HR, 1.07; P = 0.86). Additional adjustment for tumor stage suggests that the effect of F. nucleatum on mortality is partly driven by a stage shift. Presence of F. nucleatum was associated with microsatellite instable tumors, tumors with POLE exonuclease domain mutations, and ERBB3 mutations, and suggestively associated with TP53 mutations. Conclusions: F. nucleatum, and particularly subspecies animalis, was associated with a higher colorectal cancer–specific mortality and specific somatic mutated genes. Impact: Our findings identify the F. nucleatum subspecies animalis as negatively impacting colorectal cancer mortality, which may occur through a stage shift and its effect on chemoresistance.

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a heterogenous disease that develops through somatic mutations in driver genes, leading to activation of diverse neoplastic pathways. To systematically examine if somatically mutated genes and pathways impact survival, we sequenced tumor and normal DNA samples for 4,512 CRC cases using a targeted panel. We performed Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of disease-specific (DS)-survival with somatically mutated genes and pathways, adjusting for age and sex, and stratifying baseline hazards by study population. We assessed statistical significance using Bonferroni p-value thresholds to account for multiple testing of 214 genes (2.34x10-4) and 6 key CRC pathways (8.3x10-3). We limited analyses to non-silent mutations. We observed that DS-survival was significantly more favorable among individuals with hypermutated (HM) tumors, primarily consisting of microsatellite unstable and POLE-mutated tumors, as compared to those with non-hypermutated (NHM) tumors (HR=0.4, 95% CI: 0.3-0.5, p=1.2x10-17). BRAF V600E mutations were associated with poorer survival (HR=2.0, 95% CI: 1.6-2.5, p=1.6x10-10). This association was more pronounced among NHM tumors (HR=2.3, 95% CI: 1.8-2.9, p=4.3x10-12). We identified suggestive associations (p-values &lt; 5.0x10-3 in overall or stratified analyses) between DS-survival and mutations in B2M, TP53, and SMAD4. Mutations in B2M may provide more favorable prognosis for survival (HR=0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8, p=4.4x10-3), with similar effect sizes in HM and NHM tumors. Poorer survival may be associated with mutations in TP53 (HR=1.2, 95% CI:1.2-1.4, p=9.3x10-4) and SMAD4 (HR=1.3, 95% CI:1.1-1.6, p=3.2x10-3) in NHM tumors. We further observed statistically significant associations between survival and three mutated pathways: TP53/ATM (HR=1.2, 95% CI:1.1-1.4, p=9.0x10-4), receptor tyrosine kinases (RTK) and RAS (HR=1.3, 95% CI:1.1-1.5, p=4.5x10-5), and TGF-beta (HR=1.3, 95% CI:1.1-1.5, p=2.9x10-4). Findings for TP53/ATM and RTK/RAS were primarily due to mutations in one gene within each pathway (TP53 and BRAF, respectively). However, the TGF-beta pathway finding, which was more pronounced in NHM tumors, included two genes with p-values less than 0.05 (SMAD4 p=3.2x10-3 and TGFBR2 p=0.01). Despite our large sample size, relatively few somatically mutated genes were significantly associated with DS-survival. It may be that pathway-level testing affords more power for analyses and that larger sample sizes are needed. It is of interest that non-silent mutations in B2M, whose product is a component of the class I major histocompatibility complex, was associated with improved DS-survival, though our finding was not statistically significant after multiple testing correction so further exploration and replication is needed. Citation Format: Tabitha A. Harrison, Syed H. Zaidi, Conghui Qu, Amanda I. Phipps, Robert S. Steinfelder, Quang M. Trinh, Sonja I. Berndt, Daniel D. Buchanan, Peter T. Campbell, Andrew T. Chan, Kim F. Doheny, David A. Drew, Jane C. Figueiredo, Steven J. Gallinger, Marios Giannakis, Andrea Gsur, Marc J. Gunter, Michael Hoffmeister, Wen-Yi Huang, Paul J. Limburg, Victor Moreno, Polly A. Newcomb, Shuji Ogino, Ross L. Prentice, Tameka Shelford, Wei Sun, Stephen N. Thibodeau, Li Hsu, Ulrike Peters. Associations of somatically mutated genes and pathways with colorectal cancer specific survival in 4,500 colorectal cancer patients [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr LB090.

Background. Lynch syndrome is the most common genetic predisposition for hereditary cancer. Carriers of pathogenic changes in mismatch repair (MMR) genes have an increased risk of developing colorectal (CRC), endometrial, ovarian, urinary tract, prostate, and other cancers, depending on which gene is malfunctioning. In Lynch syndrome, differences in cancer incidence (penetrance) according to the gene involved have led to the stratification of cancer surveillance. By contrast, any differences in penetrance determined by the type of pathogenic variant remain unknown. Objective. To determine cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants of the MLH1 and MSH2 genes. Methods. Carriers of pathogenic variants of MLH1 (path_MLH1) and MSH2 (path_MSH2) genes filed in the Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) were categorized as truncating or missense/aberrant splicing according to the InSiGHT criteria for pathogenicity. Results. Among 5199 carriers, 1045 had missense or aberrant splicing variants, and 3930 had truncating variants. Prospective observation years for the two groups were 8205 and 34,141 years, respectively, after which there were no significant differences in incidences for cancer overall or for colorectal cancer or endometrial cancers separately. Conclusion. Truncating and missense or aberrant splicing pathogenic variants were associated with similar average cumulative incidences of cancer in carriers of path MLH1 and path_MSH2.