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Abstract INTRODUCTION Combining Alzheimer's disease blood biomarkers may improve prediction of amyloid positivity (A+) compared with single biomarkers. METHODS Logistic regression models using plasma phosphorylated tau 217 (p‐tau217), amyloid beta (Aβ) 42, and Aβ40 were developed in cognitively impaired (CI) participants from Mayo Clinic Rochester (MCR) and validated in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and Mayo Clinic Florida (MCF) cohorts. Performance was measured by area under the curve (AUC) and Probability of Amyloid Positivity Score (PAPS). RESULTS Plasma p‐tau217 alone showed high AUC (95% confidence intervals) across cohorts MCR, 0.928 (0.900–0.953); ADNI, 0.938 (0.915–0.959); MCF, 0.935 (0.893–0.970). Adding Aβ42 to regression models yielded marginal model improvement MCR, 0.940 (0.915–0.963); ADNI, 0.945 (0.922–0.965); MCF, 0.960 (0.925–0.986). Utilization of two cutpoints (≥ 90% sensitivity and specificity), yielded ≤ 10% intermediate results for p‐tau217, and ≤ 8% for p‐tau217+Aβ42. Addition of Aβ40 did not improve models’ performance. DISCUSSION An immunoassay‐based p‐tau217 PAPS model accurately predicted amyloid positivity across independent CI cohorts and achieved confirmatory‐test performance with two cutpoints. The added value of Aβ42 was modest and cohort dependent, supporting the potential of use of p‐tau217–based PAPS in clinical workflows.

Abstract INTRODUCTION White matter lesions on fluid‐attenuated inversion recovery magnetic resonance imaging (FLAIR‐MRI) reflect small vessel disease (SVD) and aid in identifying vascular contributions to impairment and dementia (VCID). Emerging diffusion MRI (dMRI) biomarkers are sensitive to early SVD but the lack of validated approaches for defining dMRI abnormality has limited their clinical utility. METHODS In 3934 participants (8749 observations) from a population‐based sample, we classified 9% as vascular cognitive impairment versus not (VCI+/VCI−) using abnormal FLAIR‐MRI and cognitive testing. We evaluated four distinct dMRI positivity criteria and assessed performance in an independent clinical sample. RESULTS The young referent criterion performed best and yielded an estimated prevalence of dMRI positivity aligned with pathology literature. About 40% of the population were dMRI positive, and these individuals had lower baseline cognition and faster longitudinal decline. Cutpoints were validated in an independent clinical sample. DISCUSSION The proposed dMRI abnormality framework can detect VCID and aid in identification of individuals at risk of VCI.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Alzheimer's disease neuropathologic change (ADNC) classification identifies not/low and intermediate/high levels of neuropathology. Our goal was to assess how frequently a positive amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) scan indicates not/low ADNC and whether this autopsy finding can occur >10 years after a positive amyloid PET. METHODS Participants with positive amyloid PET scans were categorized by levels of ADNC at autopsy, grouped by time from initial positive amyloid PET to time of death (<5 years, 5 to <10 years, or 10+ years). RESULTS Among those with a positive amyloid PET scan, the majority had intermediate/high ADNC at autopsy (234/259, 90%). In the group with 10+ years between a positive amyloid PET and death ( n = 39) not/low ADNC occurred in 3/39 (8%). DISCUSSION Not/low ADNC is uncommon among those with positive amyloid PET scans. After 10+ years, it is possible but rare for a positive amyloid PET scan to represent an indolent state of neuropathology.

Abstract Alzheimer’s disease (AD) emerges from multi-scale interactions between molecular pathology and disruptions in large-scale brain network dynamics. Understanding how these processes co-evolve and relate to disease stages is essential for advancing complex systems models of aging and AD, and for developing system-informed interventions. However, progress has been limited by a lack of large-scale longitudinal data. To address this, we examined the longitudinal relationship between subsystems of the default mode network (DMN) (posterior DMN, ventral DMN, anterior dorsal DMN) using task-free functional MRI (fMRI) and amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) imaging in a large longitudinal cohort spanning the clinico-biological spectrum of AD (n = 1,451; 2,763 time points) using mixed-effect models. We also assessed whether patterns of DMN connectivity predicted conversion to amyloid positivity, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia using Cox proportional hazards models. Our findings reveal a dynamic interplay between amyloid accumulation and connectivity within and between DMN subsystems, with both hyper- and hypoconnectivity emerging across DMN subsystems in association with increasing amyloid burden. Importantly, survival models showed that DMN connectivity patterns predicted conversion to critical stages of the disease, including not only conversion to MCI and dementia, but also conversion to amyloid positivity in otherwise clinically unimpaired individuals who were amyloid negative at baseline. These associations were independent of age, APOE4 status, sex, education, and in-scanner motion. These results support a model in which breakdowns in tightly regulated feedback loops governing DMN physiology represent a core systems-level pathophysiology of AD. Notably, this functional dyshomeostasis precedes detectable amyloidosis on imaging. Future studies should focus on the development of robust biomarkers of brain function that can be applied at the individual level, which could in turn help support the development of therapeutic approaches targeting system-level pathophysiology.

Importance Sex differences are increasingly recognized as modifiers of Alzheimer disease and related dementias, with women exhibiting greater tau burden and faster cognitive decline than men. Even though α-synuclein copathology frequently occurs in Alzheimer disease, its contribution to sex differences in disease progression is unclear. Objective To test whether α-synuclein positivity, measured using cerebrospinal fluid seed amplification assay (SAA), is differentially associated with tau accumulation in women vs men across the Alzheimer disease continuum. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used longitudinal tau positron emission tomography from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative collected between 2015 and 2023, with a median (IQR) follow-up of 1.23 (0.00-3.84) years. Participants were stratified by cerebrospinal fluid α-synuclein seed amplification assay status and sex. Participants were cognitively unimpaired or cognitively impaired (mild cognitive impairment or dementia) at baseline. Exposure Cerebrospinal fluid α-synuclein status determined by SAA and dichotomized as SAA negative or SAA positive. Main Outcomes and Measures Tau burden was quantified as standardized uptake value ratio (SUVr) in the medial temporal composite region of interest. Linear mixed-effects models tested SAA by sex by time interactions on longitudinal tau accumulation, adjusting for baseline age, baseline cognitive status, apolipoprotein E ε4 carrier status, and site. Sample size estimates were calculated to detect 25% and 50% treatment effects with 80% power in those with cognitive impairment. Results Among 415 participants (mean [SD] age, 72.3 [7.6] years; 220 women [53%]; 69 SAA positive [17%] and 346 SAA negative [83%]), there was a significant interaction between SAA status, sex, and time on tau accumulation (β, 0.061; 95% CI, 0.030-0.093; P &amp;lt; .001). Women with positive SAA results exhibited the fastest tau accumulation compared with other groups (0.066 SUVr per year; 95% CI, 0.043 to 0.089 SUVr per year; P &amp;lt; .001). Clinical trials targeting tau pathology in cognitively impaired individuals with 18-month follow-up would require 129 SAA-positive women to detect a 25% treatment effect with 80% power, compared with 518 SAA-negative women. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study of participants across the Alzheimer disease continuum, α-synuclein copathology was associated with faster tau accumulation in women than men. These findings may inform sex-specific interpretation of α-synuclein biomarkers and trial design.

Abstract Associations of Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline are important to inform patient prognosis. Of particular interest is how newly available plasma biomarkers evolve relative to cognitive decline. The goals of this work are to measure how much earlier versus later an individual’s progression on plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers is associated with earlier versus later cognitive progression and to estimate the average timeline of progression of these processes in the population. In this cohort study of 2369 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and 1591 Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) participants, we fit non-linear mixed-effects models to estimate how much earlier versus later each individual progresses on plasma phosphorylated tau (p-tau)217, amyloid PET, tau PET and auditory verbal learning test (AVLT) sum of trials relative to the population mean (individual adjustment), the associations of these individual adjustments among biomarker pairs and how covariates affect the timing of biomarker progression. The association of individual adjustments implies mechanistic associations and the amount of variability in cognitive decline accounted for by each biomarker. By applying cut-off points, we also estimated the relative timing that these biomarkers become abnormal in the population. Associations of individual adjustments were moderate between all biomarkers and AVLT (R = 0.38–0.47) in the MCSA and stronger (R = 0.74–0.81) in ADNI; plasma p-tau217 accounted for 16% of the variability in timing of AVLT decline in the MCSA and 64% in ADNI. APOE ɛ4 carriership was associated with earlier biomarker progression. AVLT became abnormal after the biomarkers up to age 90, after which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers. The association of the timing of plasma and PET Alzheimer’s disease biomarker progression with cognitive decline was modest in the MCSA population-based sample and stronger in the Alzheimer’s disease-enriched ADNI cohort. The timing of plasma p-tau217 progression explained a similar degree of variability in AVLT progression as amyloid PET, supporting its utility as a marker of disease progression. The estimated temporal ordering of biomarkers and cognitive abnormality was as anticipated (amyloid, tau, cognition) up to the age of 90, beyond which AVLT was estimated to become abnormal prior to tau biomarkers, likely related to the effects of non-Alzheimer’s disease co-pathologies.

Abstract Background Diffusion MRI (dMRI) measures are increasingly being used as biomarkers for aging and dementia in multi‐center studies. Measurements in longitudinal studies are often acquired on different systems, which can result in systematic differences of machine origin (e.g. vendor, hardware, algorithms). This may warrant harmonization prior to pooling multi‐site data. However, harmonization algorithms may introduce a risk of removing valuable information content and reducing sensitivity to physiological factors (e.g. sex, age, disease). Here, we tested the hypothesis that protocol standardization may minimize machine‐origin differences, obviating a need for post‐acquisition harmonization in a two‐site (Mississippi‐MS and Minnesota‐MN) cohort of the longitudinal Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA). Methods Two data sets were analyzed: first, a crossover dataset with 80 participants (scanned within 2 days) bridging two different protocols on GE and Siemens scanners; second, participants scanned using standardized protocols from the ongoing MCSA ( N MN‐MCSA =204; N MS‐MCSA =52). Parameters are listed in Figure 1. For crossover data, analyses were repeated with GE data resampled to 2‐mm isotropic resolution, and discarding Siemens‐only b‐shells to artificially reduce protocol disparities. Analysis encompassed visualization of overlain subjectwise histogram‐derived densities obtained from whole‐brain masks for dMRI measures; and median dMRI measures from within the genu of the corpus callosum (GCC) with nonparametric statistical testing. When available, both DTI and NODDI measures were compared. Results Pronounced visual distributional differences seen between MD and FA in crossover data were reduced with resampling of GE data and including only b‐shells shared across acquisitions. For the resampled/reshelled data, significant differences remained for all GCC‐FA comparisons, but not all GCC‐MD (Figure 2). For the ongoing MCSA data from two sites, MD and FA whole‐brain densities were more closely aligned, with GCC‐FA and GCC‐MD showing no significant differences (Figure 3). NODDI measures showed more discordant densities than DTI measures, including shifts in most probable values and differences in distributional arrangement. Conclusions Our work provides further evidence supporting protocol and processing standardization for minimizing machine‐origin differences prior to considering harmonization. Differences in dMRI metrics seen when comparing across unstandardized protocols were reduced when protocols were standardized. NODDI metrics had more apparent sensitivity to site than DTI measures.

Abstract Background Aging and dementia are generally associated with lower metabolism in gray matter on FDG‐PET and have been widely studied. However, white matter (WM) metabolic changes remain understudied. We investigated the metabolic changes in WM associated with aging and dementia and their relationships with established Alzheimer's Disease (AD) biomarkers and cognitive outcomes. Method We analyzed data from 3,169 participants (72 ± 9 years; 53% male; 65% cognitively unimpaired) enrolled in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). All participants underwent baseline MRI, amyloid‐PET, and FDG‐PET scans, as well as neuropsychological evaluations, with at least one clinical follow‐up. Voxel‐wise multiple regression analysis identified WM metabolic changes associated with global cognition in cognitively unimpaired MCSA participants ( n = 1,754). Univariate analyses and structural equation models were applied to elucidate the driving factors underlying the WM metabolic changes in MCSA data. Multiple regression and linear mixed‐effects models evaluated the explanatory utility of WM metabolism for baseline global cognition and cognitive decline in both cohorts. In a subset of MCSA participants, we evaluated neurite density index from diffusion MRI as a surrogate of WM health and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) as a surrogate of neuroinflammation to understand underlying mechanisms. Result We identified an atypical WM signature (AWM‐Signature) in the anterior and superior corona radiata, where glucose metabolism increased as cognitive performance worsened (Figure 1). Hypermetabolism in AWM‐Signature was related to increased age, amyloidosis, vascular disease, and neuroinflammation, as well as decreasing WM neurite density in the same regions (Figure 2). Hypermetabolism in AWM‐Signature regions predicted faster future cognitive decline, even after accounting for demographics, amyloid, and vascular disease metrics. The results observed in the AWM‐Signature regions were consistently in the opposite direction of the associations seen with gray matter and typical WM regions. Conclusion We found unexpected metabolism increases in corona radiata, a hub that carries significant portion of the brain's neural traffic, with aging and disease which likely indicates a compensatory response. These changes may be useful cognitive resilience measures and require further investigation to understand their role in maintaining cognitive function.

Abstract Background The objective of this study was to determine the predictive value of amyloid‐PET versus plasma %p‐tau217 (defined as the ratio of phosphorylated to non‐phosphorylated Tau217 × 100), Aβ42/40, and the amyloid probability score (APS2; which combines of Aβ42/40 and %p‐tau217) in tau‐PET transitions (T‐ to T+). Method Participants included were from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA) and had plasma markers measured by mass spectrometry (IP‐MS; C2N), had an amyloid‐PET scan, and had a tau‐PET negative scan (SUVR<1.29, temporal meta‐ROI) at the baseline, along with one or more follow‐up tau‐PET scans. Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the relationship between C2N plasma %P‐Tau217 and APS2 and incident tau‐PET positivity (SUVR>=1.29) adjusting for age, sex, and APOE ε4. An analysis was also performed using amyloid‐PET centiloid as the predictor. Both the plasma markers and amyloid‐PET centiloid were scaled so that a one‐unit change corresponds to the respective interquartile range (IQR) for comparability of hazard ratios (HR). The analyses were repeated in the BioFINDER‐2 cohort for validation. Result 255 MCSA participants (122 female [47.8%] were included with a median age of 71.9 (IQR: 65.8, 78.8) years old, of which 37 progressed to tau‐PET positivity. At baseline, 238 (93.7%) were cognitively unimpaired. Higher baseline %p‐tau217 (HR: 1.52 [95% CI: 1.28, 1.8]), amyloid‐PET centiloid (HR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.20, 1.79]), and APS2 (HR: 1.62 [95% CI: 1.22, 2.16]) were associated with an increased risk of progressing to tau‐PET positive (Figure 1). Aβ42/40 (HR: 1.06 [95% 0.604–1.867] was not associated with incident tau positivity Among 605 participants who were tau negative at index date in BioFINDER‐2 (316 (52.2%) cognitively unimpaired), with a median age of 70.2 (IQR: 60.5‐76.4), 33 progressed to tau positivity with higher %p‐tau217 (HR: 1.8 [95% CI: 1.5, 2.17]), amyloid‐PET centiloid (HR: 2.3 [95% CI: 1.77, 2.97]), and lower Aβ 42/40 (HR: 0.42 [95% CI: 0.21, 0.85]) at index date all associated with an increased risk of progressing to tau‐PET positive. Conclusion In two independent cohorts , %p‐tau217 provides predictive information about those who will convert from tau negative to tau positive on PET scan with the associations being similar to amyloid‐PET.

Abstract Background Neuropathologic evaluation is essential for diagnosing and treating dementia, but definitive diagnoses is only available after post‐mortem brain autopsy. Positron emission tomography (PET) offers a potential in vivo proxy for predicting neuropathology. This study proposes a semi‐supervised learning (SSL) model using a single FDG‐PET image to predict underlying neuropathology. Method The SSL model leverages a self‐organized graph structure based on a patient similarity network (PSN) created from 1,495 FDG‐PET images across the aging and neurodegenerative spectrum. Each patient is represented by a node, with edges indicating image similarity derived from principal component analysis features and cosine similarity weights. The PSN structure connects 20 nearest neighbors. Neuropathologic labels were available for 204 autopsied patients. The Poisson Learning Method was employed to propagate labels from these annotated nodes to unlabeled nodes, guided by the PSN structure. FDG‐PET images were collected from clinical and research participants at the Mayo Clinic and processed using an MRI‐free pipeline. Neuropathologic labels were assigned based on widely accepted diagnostic criteria. Leave‐one‐out cross‐validation (LOOCV) was used to assess model performance. Results The confusion matrix demonstrated high accuracy in predicting Alzheimer's disease, frontotemporal lobar degeneration with tau inclusions, and Lewy body disease pathology. A Sankey diagram and label distribution analysis revealed strong correlations between clinical and predicted neuropathologic labels. Conclusion This study highlights the potential of a graph‐based SSL pipeline to predict neuropathological changes using FDG‐PET imaging data, despite limited pathology labels. The findings underscore the value of SSL in bridging the gap between abundant neuroimaging data and scarce neuropathologic labels, contributing to improved dementia diagnosis and understanding.