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INTRODUCTION: We applied the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework to evaluate the performance of fecal calprotectin (FC) as an alternative to endoscopy in patients with moderate-to-severe ulcerative colitis (UC) treated with a biologic agent or tofacitinib. METHODS: Individual participant data from the trials of infliximab, golimumab, vedolizumab, and tofacitinib for UC were pooled to generate prevalence of endoscopic activity (Mayo endoscopy score) across different combinations of the rectal bleeding score (RBS) and stool frequency score (SFS). These estimates were then combined with the data from an updated systematic review of the operating properties of FC to generate clinical scenario–specific assessments of the performance of FC as a predictor of endoscopic disease activity. A prespecified threshold of acceptability for false-negative (FN) and false-positive (FP) test results was set at 5%. RESULTS: For patients with UC achieving RBS 0 + SFS 0/1, FC ≤ 50 μg/g may avoid endoscopy in 50% patients with a FN rate <5%. Similarly, for patients with RBS 2/3 + SFS 2/3, FC ≥ 250 μg/g potentially avoids endoscopy in approximately 50% patients with an FP rate <5%. The greatest uncertainty in the diagnostic performance for FC was observed in patients with UC achieving RBS 0 but having SFS 2/3, where FN and FP rates were consistently >10%, and endoscopic evaluation may be warranted. DISCUSSION: Two clinical scenarios were identified where FC can be used with confidence for monitoring treatment response to biologics or tofacitinib in patients with UC without the requirement for endoscopy.

SummaryBackgroundAn association between bariatric surgery and development of de‐novo inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has been observed.AimTo evaluate further the association among bariatric surgery, weight loss medications, obesity and new‐onset IBD.MethodsUsing Explorys, a population‐based Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act compliant database, we estimated the prevalence of de‐novo IBD among patients treated with bariatric surgery (Roux‐en‐Y gastrojejunostomy, laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy or gastric banding) (n = 60 870) or weight loss medications (orlistat, phentermine/topiramate, lorcaserin, bupropion/naltrexone and liraglutide) (n = 193 790) compared with obese controls (n = 5 021 210), between 1999 and 2018.ResultsThe prevalence of de‐novo IBD was lower among obese patients exposed to bariatric surgery (7.72 per 1000 patients) or weight loss medications (7.22 per 1000 patients) compared with patients with persistent obesity not exposed to these interventions (11.66 per 1000 patients, P < 0.0001). The risk reduction for de‐novo IBD was consistent across bariatric surgeries and weight loss medications with the exception of orlistat which was not associated with a reduction in risk for de‐novo IBD compared with the persistent obese control cohort.ConclusionObese patients undergoing treatment with bariatric surgery or weight loss medications are at a lower risk for developing de‐novo IBD compared with persistently obese controls not exposed to these interventions. These data suggest that obesity and ineffective management of obesity are risk factors for de‐novo IBD. Further research is needed to confirm these observations and understand potential mechanisms.

Background and Aims Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can lead to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). While both tenofovir disoproxil (TDF) and entecavir (ETV) have been shown to reduce the risk of HCC, their comparative effectiveness is unclear. We estimated the comparative effectiveness of these two agents in reducing the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, through a systematic review and meta‐analysis. Approach and Results We searched multiple electronic databases from January 1, 1998, to October 31, 2019, for randomized controlled trials and observational comparative effectiveness studies in adults with CHB treated with ETV compared to TDF, reporting the incidence of HCC (minimum follow‐up 12 months). Primary outcome was incidence of HCC, calculated as incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% confidence interval (CI, unadjusted analysis) and hazard ratio (HR) with 95% CI (adjusted analysis, where reported). Of 1,971 records identified, 14 studies (263,947 person‐years) were included for quantitative analysis. On unadjusted meta‐analysis of 14 studies, the risk of HCC was not statistically different between ETV and TDF (IRR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.99‐1.66). When using available adjusted data (multivariate or propensity‐matched data), the risk of HCC among patients treated with ETV was 27% higher when compared to TDF (seven studies; 95% CI, 1.01‐1.60, P = 0.04). Additional analysis of adjusted data when separately reported among patients with cirrhosis demonstrated an adjusted HR of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.66‐1.23), suggesting no difference between ETV‐treated and TDF‐treated groups. The overall confidence in estimates was very low (observational studies, high heterogeneity). Conclusions TDF may be associated with lower risk of HCC when compared to ETV.

Statins can decrease hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence, but the magnitude and the predictors of these effects remain unclear. This meta-analysis provides a pooled estimate of the impact of statin use on HCC occurrence. Pooled effects were calculated using a random-effects model by means of the DerSimonian and Laird test. Primary endpoint was the time-dependent correlation between statin use and HCC incidence expressed as hazard ratio (HR), both crude and adjusted. The crude and adjusted odds ratios (OR) for HCC occurrence between statin users and non-users were analyzed. Twenty-five studies with 1,925,964 patients were included. Crude OR for HCC incidence was 0.59 (95% CI: 0.47–0.74), confirmed in adjusted analysis (OR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.70–0.78). Adjusted HR was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69–0.76). This effect was more pronounced in HBV patients (HR: 0.46, 95% CI: 0.36–0.60) and with a cumulative daily dose beyond 365 (HR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11–0.67). Lipophilic statins were associated with reduced HCC incidence (HR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.39–0.62). Atorvastatin determined the greater magnitude of effect (HR: 0.43, 95% CI: 0.28–0.65). This meta-analysis demonstrates the beneficial chemopreventive effect of statins against HCC occurrence. This effect is dose-dependent and more pronounced with lipophilic statins.

Abstract Background Conflicting results have emerged, especially with respect to the impact on overall survival (OS), from trials evaluating lenalidomide maintenance (LM) therapy after induction therapy alone or post-autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) in multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of existing outcome data from LM trials to evaluate role of lenalidomide as maintenance strategy in MM. Patients and methods A comprehensive search of electronic databases and abstracts through June 2013 was performed to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared LM vs. placebo/no maintenance. Single arm studies were excluded. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the random-effects model for clinical endpoints of progression free survival (PFS), OS, response rate (RR) and adverse events (AEs), including second primary malignancies (SPMs). Analyses were performed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Software Version 2. We assessed between-study heterogeneity with the Cochran Q test and quantified its extent with the I2 statistic. Results Overall, five RCTs, with data extractable from four phase III trials (3 publications and 1 abstract) were identified (n= 1935). All studies were RCTs with an adequate randomization. MRC MM XI study was excluded from analyses as survival data are not available. Two placebo controlled trials (IFM 05-02, CALGB 100104) addressed the role of LM post-ASCT, one placebo-controlled trial (MM-015) studied LM therapy in the non-transplant setting and the remaining trial (RV-MM-PI209) had a 2 X 2 design comprising of both ASCT and non-transplant randomized arms followed by a second randomization of LM versus no maintenance. There was no heterogeneity for estimate of PFS results (Cochran Q, p=0.68; I2=0%), but considerable heterogeneity for estimate of OS (Cochran Q, p=0.09; I2= 55%), among the studies. There was significant prolongation of both PFS (HR 0.49, 95% CI, 0.41–0.58, p<0.001) and OS (HR 0.77, 95% CI, 0.62–0.95, p=0.013) with LM vs. placebo/no maintenance (Figure 1). Best response during maintenance was reported only in 2 studies and odds of responding (very good partial response or better) were not significantly different with LM (OR 1.28, p=0.3). Grade 3-4 AEs data were available from 3 trials for calculation of pooled OR with LM compared with placebo. We observed a nearly two-fold increase in the risk of SPMs with LM (OR 1.99; 95% CI, 1.31–3.04; p=0.001). Patients on LM were more likely to have grade 3-4 AEs than placebo: neutropenia (OR 4.9, p<0.001), thrombocytopenia (OR 2.7, p<0.001), fatigue (OR 2.3, p=0.01) and venous thromboembolism (OR 3.2, p=0.02). Odds of discontinuing treatment were also significantly higher in patients on lenalidomide (OR 2.9, p<0.001). Conclusions Meta-analysis of RCTs demonstrates significant improvement in PFS and modest improvement in OS with LM. There is an increased risk of grade 3-4 adverse effects, including SPMs with LM. Substantial heterogeneity for estimate of OS among protocols is a limitation of this analysis. Lack of uniform access to lenalidomide upon disease progression in the placebo/no maintenance arms of the constituent studies should be taken into account while interpreting aggregate effect estimates for OS in this meta-analysis. OS: Cochran Q p=0.09, I2=55%, substantial heterogeneity PFS: Cochran Q p=0.68, I2=0%, minimal heterogeneity Disclosures: Off Label Use: Lenalidomide for maintenance therapy in multiple myeloma. Kumar:Merck: Consultancy, Honoraria; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Millennium: The Takeda Oncology Company: Research Funding; Novartis: Research Funding; Genzyme: Research Funding. Dispenzieri:Celgene, Millenium, Jansenn, Pfizer: Research Funding. Bergsagel:Onyx: Consultancy. Lacy:Celgene Corporation: Research Funding.

Abstract Background: Different molecules within coffee may be pro-carcinogenic, while others may have anti-oxidant and anti-neoplastic effects. Hence, it can be hypothesized that coffee may have differing risk associations with specific colorectal cancer (CRC) subtypes. The aim of this study was to evaluate associations between coffee consumption and incident CRC overall, by anatomic subsite, and by molecularly defined tumor subtypes, in the population-based Iowa Women's Health Study (IWHS). Methods: IWHS participants, ages 55-69 years, provided dietary intake estimates using self-reported food frequency questionnaires at baseline (1986). From 35,216 women included the final analysis, 1298 developed CRC (673 with proximal CRC, 597 with distal CRC) through December 31, 2002 (end of the IWHS molecular epidemiology project study period). Archived, paraffin-embedded tissue specimens for 732 representative CRC cases were collected and analyzed to determine if coffee consumption (none or &lt;1 cup/month, &lt;1 cup/week, 1 cup/day, 2-3 cups/day and ≥4 cups/day) was associated with microsatellite instability (MSI-L/MSS or MSI-H), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP-negative or CIMP-positive), BRAF mutation status (BRAF-wildtype or BRAF-mutated), KRAS mutation status (KRAS-wildtype and KRAS-mutated), p53 protein expression level (p53 absent, low or high) and estrogen receptor β protein expression level (ERβ absent, low or high). Multivariable Cox regression models were fit to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) with adjustment for age, smoking, alcohol use, diabetes, body mass index and waist-hip ratio, physical activity, estrogen use, dietary intake of fat, calcium, vitamin E, sucrose, red meat and methionine. P-values were not adjusted for multiple testing. Results: There was no significant difference in the risk of overall (RR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.29; Ptrend=0.50), proximal (RR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.68-1.21; Ptrend=0.57) or distal CRC (RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.86-1.64; Ptrend=0.19) in women who consumed ≥4 cups of coffee/day (caffeinated or decaffeinated), as compared to non-consumers. By CRC molecular subtypes for these same two exposure groups, women with ≥4 cups of coffee/day were more likely to develop ERβ-low CRC (RR, 2.98; 95% CI, 1.04-8.51; Ptrend=0.06), though no significant associations were observed for caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee specifically. In contrast, women who consumed ≥4 cups of decaffeinated coffee/day were less likely to develop MSI-L/MSS (RR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.36-0.92; Ptrend=0.04) and BRAF-WT (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.44-1.06; Ptrend=0.06) CRCs than non-consumers. Women who consumed ≥4 cups of caffeinated coffee/day were also less likely to develop p53-low CRCs (RR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.24-1.15; Ptrend=0.02). Null associations were observed between decaffeinated coffee consumption and risk of CIMP-, KRAS- and p53- defined CRC subtypes, as well as between caffeinated coffee consumption and risk of MSI-, BRAF-, CIMP- or KRAS-defined CRC subtypes. Conclusion: In this prospective cohort study of older women, though coffee consumption was not associated with risk of overall or site-specific CRC, unique associations were observed with molecularly defined CRC subtypes, supporting a need for further investigation of the potential pro- and anti-carcinogenic effects of coffee constituents on biologic targets involved in colorectal carcinogenesis. Citation Format: Siddharth Singh, Robert Vierkant, Lori Tillmans, Alice Wang, Daniel Weisenberger, Peter Laird, Maki Inoue-Choi, Andrea Mariani, Charles Lynch, Kristin Anderson, Amy French, Robert Haile, Lisa Harnack, John Potter, Susan Slager, Thomas Smyrk, Stephen Thibodeau, James Cerhan, Paul Limburg. Coffee consumption and colorectal cancer risk by molecularly defined subtypes in a prospective cohort study of older women. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Twelfth Annual AACR International Conference on Frontiers in Cancer Prevention Research; 2013 Oct 27-30; National Harbor, MD. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Can Prev Res 2013;6(11 Suppl): Abstract nr A44.

Abstract Background Vedolizumab effectiveness estimates immediately after Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD) are limited by use in refractory populations. We aimed to compare treatment patterns and outcomes of vedolizumab in 2 time frames after FDA approval. Methods We used 2 data sets for time trend analysis, an academic multicenter vedolizumab consortium (VICTORY) and the Truven MarketScan database, and 2 time periods, May 2014–June 2015 (Era 1) and July 2015–June 2017 (Era 2). VICTORY cumulative 12-month clinical remission, corticosteroid-free remission, and mucosal healing rates, and Truven 12-month hospitalization and surgery rates, were compared between Eras 1 and 2 using time-to-event analyses. Results A total of 3661 vedolizumab-treated patients were included (n = 1087 VICTORY, n = 2574 Truven). In both cohorts, CD and UC patients treated during Era 2 were more likely to be biologic naïve. Compared with Era 1, Era 2 CD patients in the VICTORY consortium had higher rates of clinical remission (31% vs 40%, P = 0.03) and mucosal healing (42% vs 58%, P < 0.01). These trends were not observed for UC. In the Truven database, UC patients treated during Era 2 had lower rates of inflammatory bowel disease–related hospitalization (22.4% vs 9.6%, P < 0.001) and surgery (17.2% vs 9.4%, P = 0.008), which was not observed for CD. Conclusion Since FDA approval, remission and mucosal healing rates have increased for vedolizumab-treated CD patients, and vedolizumab-treated UC patients have had fewer hospitalizations and surgeries. This is likely due to differences between patient populations treated immediately after drug approval and those treated later.