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Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of “modifiable risk factors”, measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.

Although oncology care has evolved, outcome assessment remains a key challenge. Outcome measurement requires identification and adoption of a succinct list of metrics indicative of high-quality cancer care for use within and across healthcare systems. NCCN established an advisory committee, the NCCN Quality and Outcomes Committee, consisting of provider experts from NCCN Member Institutions and other stakeholders, including payers and patient advocacy, community oncology, and health information technology representatives, to review the existing quality landscape and identify contemporary, relevant cancer quality and outcomes measures by reevaluating validated measures for endorsement and proposing new measure concepts to fill crucial gaps. This manuscript reports on 22 measures and concepts; 15 that align with existing measures and 7 that are new.

This study was conducted in treatment-naive adults with drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, to assess the safety, bactericidal activity, and pharmacokinetics of nitazoxanide (NTZ). This was a prospective phase II clinical trial in 30 adults with pulmonary tuberculosis. Twenty participants received 1 g of NTZ orally twice daily for 14 days. A control group of 10 participants received standard therapy over 14 days. The primary outcome was the change in time to culture positivity (TTP) in an automated liquid culture system.

Introduction Limited stage disease accounts for 30-40% of Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL), with better overall survival than advanced stage disease, but with increased late relapses regardless of treatment strategy (Stephens 2016). Preferred treatment for these patients (pts) per NCCN guidelines is abbreviated R-CHOP followed by radiotherapy. Based on promising results of radioimmunotherapy consolidation in SWOG S0313 (Persky 2015), and of PET-directed experience by the BC Cancer Agency (Sehn 2011), we designed a National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN) PET-directed study to tailor therapy after 3 cycles of R-CHOP, to improve outcomes and decrease toxicities. Methods Pts had non-bulky (< 10 cm) stage I/II untreated DLBCL. Mediastinal, HIV-associated, testicular, central nervous system, and indolent lymphoma were excluded. Pts received standard R-CHOP therapy and had an interim PET scan on day 15-18 of cycle 3, which was centrally reviewed in real time. Pts with negative PET scan (Deauville 1-3, iPET-neg) proceeded with 1 additional cycle of R-CHOP. Pts with positive PET scan (Deauville 4-5, iPET-pos) initiated 36 Gy of involved field radiation therapy (IFRT), plus additional boost to FDG-avid area up to 9 Gy, within 5 weeks of 3rd cycle of R-CHOP. This was followed by ibritumomab tiuxetan (IFRT-Zevalin) 3-6 weeks after completing IFRT. Final PET scan was performed 12 weeks after treatment completion. Results The study completed accrual in June 2016. Safety, response, interim PET, and immunohistochemistry-based cell of origin (COO) and MYC/BCL2 analyses were presented previously (Persky 2017, Stephens 2017). Of 159 pts enrolled, 1 was upstaged by PET, and 26 pts were ineligible - due to incorrect histology (mostly concurrent indolent or follicular lymphoma grade 3B) (21), lack of diagnostic tissue submission for central pathology review (3), and bulky disease (2). In 132 eligible pts, median age was 62 years, 62% had stage I, 17% had B symptoms, 14% had elevated LDH, 43% had extranodal involvement, and 66% had exclusive involvement of the head and neck region. Stage modified IPI (smIPI, Miller 1998) was 0 in 27%, 1 in 42%, 2 in 28%, and 3 in 4% of the pts. COO by Lymph2Cx was assessable in 87 pts - 68% were GCB, 23% were ABC, and 9% were unclassifiable. Double protein expressers (MYC and BCL2, DPE) were 16%, while 4 (3%) pts had "double hit" lymphoma (DHL) - 2 with MYC/BCL2 and 2 with MYC/BCL6 rearrangements - none of which were DPE. Of 132 eligible pts, 128 had an interim PET scan centrally reviewed, of which 110 were iPET-neg. Only 18 were iPET-pos, 4 of them due to infection (Deauville X) which were treated as iPET-neg. Of 14 truly iPET-pos pts (11%), 2 refused radiation, and 12 pts received IFRT-Zevalin. Eight pts (67%) converted from PR to CR after IFRT-Zevalin and 4 (33%) had PR, for an overall CR of 92% and PR of 4% (with 4% unevaluable). With median follow up of 4.5 yrs (range 1.1 - 7.5 yrs), only 5 pts progressed and 2 died from lymphoma. Of 5 progressors, 3 received R-CHOP x 4, 1 was iPET-pos but declined radiation, and 1 went off treatment after 1 cycle of R-CHOP. Eleven pts died from non-lymphoma causes, including 1 pt from secondary AML (iPET-neg arm), and 1 of lung adenocarcinoma diagnosed upon iPET. S1001 5-yr PFS estimate is 87% and OS estimate is 90% (figure 1), with iPET-pos and iPET-neg pts having similar outcomes - PFS 86% vs. 88%, OS 93% vs. 91%, respectively. Five-yr PFS by smIPI was 97% for smIPI of 0, 86% for 1-2, and 30% for 3. GCB had 5-yr PFS of 95%, vs. 70% for ABC and 47% for unclassifiable. DPE pts had 5-yr PFS of 70, vs. 89% for non-DPE pts. All 4 DHL pts maintain remission. Conclusions S1001 is the largest US study of limited stage DLBCL in the rituximab era, with best NCTN results in this disease subset. Only 5 patients progressed and 2 died from lymphoma. Our study confirms the distinct biology of limited stage DLBCL, with predominance of GCB origin (68%), and head and neck location (66%). Due to small number of lymphoma events, no strong conclusions about prognostic ability of smIPI, COO, DPE, or DHL, could be made. S1001 demonstrated that 89% of pts maintained excellent outcomes after R-CHOP x 4 with PET-directed therapy. Only 11% of pts were iPET-pos and required radiation, but they also had excellent outcomes. Together with the FLYER trial in younger pts (Poeschel 2018), this NCTN trial establishes R-CHOP x 4 alone as the new standard approach to limited stage disease for majority of the pts. Disclosures Persky: Sandoz: Consultancy; Morphosys: Other: Member, Independent Data Monitoring Committee; Debiopharm: Other: Member, Independent Data Monitoring Committee; Bayer: Consultancy. Stephens:Acerta: Research Funding; Karyopharm: Research Funding; Gilead: Research Funding. Park:BMS: Consultancy, Research Funding; Rafael Pharma: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; G1 Therapeutics: Consultancy; Teva: Consultancy, Research Funding; Gilead: Speakers Bureau; Seattle Genetics: Research Funding, Speakers Bureau. Bartlett:Seattle Genetics: Research Funding; ADC Therapeutics: Consultancy, Research Funding; Pfizer: Research Funding; Millenium: Research Funding; Bristol-Myers Squibb: Research Funding; Celgene: Research Funding; Genenetech: Research Funding; Immune Design: Research Funding; Gilead: Research Funding; Forty Seven: Research Funding; Janssen: Research Funding; Affimed: Research Funding; Merck: Research Funding; Pharmacyclics: Research Funding. Swinnen:Pharmacyclics: Consultancy; AbbVie: Consultancy. Barr:Celgene: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; Seattle Genetics: Consultancy; Genentech: Consultancy; Verastem: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy; Astra Zeneca: Consultancy, Research Funding; Janssen: Consultancy; AbbVie: Consultancy; Pharmacyclics LLC, an AbbVie company: Consultancy, Research Funding; TG Therapeutics: Consultancy, Research Funding. Leonard:Nordic Nanovector: Consultancy; Akcea Therapeutics: Consultancy; BeiGene: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy; Miltenyi: Consultancy; ADC Therapeutics: Consultancy; Nordic Nanovector: Consultancy; Akcea Therapeutics: Consultancy; Sandoz: Consultancy; ADC Therapeutics: Consultancy; Miltenyi: Consultancy; Genentech, Inc./F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd: Consultancy; Karyopharm Therapeutics: Consultancy; Epizyme, Inc: Consultancy; Sutro Biopharma: Consultancy; AstraZeneca: Consultancy; AstraZeneca: Consultancy; Bayer Corporation: Consultancy; Bayer Corporation: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Epizyme, Inc: Consultancy; Celgene: Consultancy; Genentech, Inc./F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; MorphoSys: Consultancy; Karyopharm Therapeutics: Consultancy; Gilead: Consultancy; Sutro Biopharma: Consultancy; BeiGene: Consultancy; Merck: Consultancy; MorphoSys: Consultancy; Sandoz: Consultancy. Kahl:TG Therapeutics: Consultancy; ADC Therapeutics: Consultancy, Research Funding; Seattle Genetics: Consultancy; BeiGene: Consultancy. Fisher:Celgene: Consultancy; AstraZeneca: Consultancy; Barclays: Honoraria; prIME: Honoraria. Rimsza:NanoSting: Patents & Royalties: Named inventor on a patent licensed to NanoSting [Institution]. Smith:Portola Pharmaceuticals: Research Funding. Friedberg:Bayer: Honoraria, Other: Data & Safety Monitoring Committee; Acerta: Other: Data & Safety Monitoring Committee. OffLabel Disclosure: Ibritumomab tiuxetan in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

Carrying premature termination codons in 1 allele of the ABCA7 gene is associated with an increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). While the primary function of ABCA7 is to regulate the transport of phospholipids and cholesterol, ABCA7 is also involved in maintaining homeostasis of the immune system. Since inflammatory pathways causatively or consequently participate in AD pathogenesis, we studied the effects of Abca7 haplodeficiency in mice on brain immune responses under acute and chronic conditions. When acute inflammation was induced through peripheral lipopolysaccharide injection in control or heterozygous Abca7 knockout mice, partial ABCA7 deficiency diminished proinflammatory responses by impairing CD14 expression in the brain. On breeding to App NL-G-F knockin mice, we observed increased amyloid-β (Aβ) accumulation and abnormal endosomal morphology in microglia. Taken together, our results demonstrate that ABCA7 loss of function may contribute to AD pathogenesis by altering proper microglial responses to acute inflammatory challenges and during the development of amyloid pathology, providing insight into disease mechanisms and possible treatment strategies.

The recent advent of endovascular procedures has created the unique opportunity to collect and analyze thrombi removed from cerebral arteries, instigating a novel subfield in stroke research. Insights into thrombus characteristics and composition could play an important role in ongoing efforts to improve acute ischemic stroke therapy. An increasing number of centers are collecting stroke thrombi. This paper aims at providing guiding information on thrombus handling, procedures, and analysis in order to facilitate and standardize this emerging research field.

AbstractBackgroundMolecular studies have tried to address the unmet need for prognostic biomarkers in prostate cancer (PCa). Some gene expression tests improve upon clinical factors for prediction of outcomes, but additional tools for accurate prediction of tumor aggressiveness are needed.MethodsBased on a previously published panel of 23 gene transcripts that distinguished patients with metastatic progression, we constructed a prediction model using independent training and testing datasets. Using the validated messenger RNAs and Gleason score (GS), we performed model selection in the training set to define a final locked model to classify patients who developed metastatic‐lethal events from those who remained recurrence‐free. In an independent testing dataset, we compared our locked model to established clinical prognostic factors and utilized Kaplan‐Meier curves and receiver operating characteristic analyses to evaluate the model's performance.ResultsThirteen of 23 previously identified gene transcripts that stratified patients with aggressive PCa were validated in the training dataset. These biomarkers plus GS were used to develop a four‐gene (CST2, FBLN1, TNFRSF19, and ZNF704) transcript (4GT) score that was significantly higher in patients who progressed to metastatic‐lethal events compared to those without recurrence in the testing dataset (P = 5.7 × 10−11). The 4GT score provided higher prediction accuracy (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.69‐0.83; partial area under the ROC curve [pAUC] = 0.008) than GS alone (AUC = 0.63; 95% CI = 0.56‐0.70; pAUC = 0.002), and it improved risk stratification in subgroups defined by a combination of clinicopathological features (ie, Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment‐Surgery).ConclusionOur validated 4GT score has prognostic value for metastatic‐lethal progression in men treated for localized PCa and warrants further evaluation for its clinical utility.

Background Clot perviousness in large vessel occlusion has been shown to be associated with improved recanalization outcomes with mechanical thrombectomy and intravenous thrombolysis. Objective To evaluate the association between clot perviousness based on thrombus attenuation increase (TAI) on CT, and histologic composition of clots in acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Methods A retrospective review was completed of patients with AIS secondary to large vessel occlusion, non-contrast CT (NCCT) and CT angiography (CTA) images, and histologic analysis of the retrieved clot. TAI was measured by subtracting clot attenuation on NCCT from the attenuation on CTA. Up to 3 regions of interest (ROIs) were evaluated on each clot; the average attenuation was used for analysis if multiple ROIs were assessed. Pervious clots were defined as TAI ≥10 Hounsfield units (HUs); impervious clots had TAI <10 HU. Histopathologic analyses of clots were assessed for relative compositions of red blood cells (RBCs), white blood cells (WBCs), fibrin, and platelets/other. Results 57 patients were included. Pervious clots were more likely to be RBC rich (p=0.04); impervious clots were more likely to be fibrin and WBC rich (p=0.01 for both). Pervious clots also had greater RBC density than impervious clots (49.8% and 33.0%, respectively; p=0.006); fibrin density of pervious clots was lower than that of impervious clots (17.8% and 23.2%, respectively; p=0.02). Conclusion Clot perviousness, assessed on NCCT and CTA imaging, is associated with higher RBC density and lower fibrin density, offering a possible explanation for the higher rates of successful thrombectomy and favorable clinical outcome seen in such patients.