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Importance Use of modern neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) regimens has markedly increased rates of pathologic complete response (pCR) in breast cancer, raising the question of whether surgical removal of the primary tumor is required for patients with pCR. For surgery to be omitted, one must be able to accurately predict pCR before surgery. Objective To investigate if adding post-NAC core needle biopsy of the tumor bed to trimodality imaging in patients who have clinical complete response (cCR) will predict pCR (resolution of both invasive disease and ductal carcinoma in situ) in 90% or more cases. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a phase 2, prospective, nonrandomized clinical trial. Patients were enrolled from August 2017 to June 2019. This is the final analysis, which was completed in December 2023. The setting included academic and community hospital center members of NRG (ie, the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project, the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group, and the Gynecologic Oncology Group) in the US and Canada. Patients with operable (T1-T3, stage I-III) invasive ductal carcinoma who completed NAC and achieved cCR and radiological complete response (rCR) or near rCR by mammography (mass ≤1 cm and no malignant microcalcifications), ultrasound (mass ≤2 cm), and magnetic resonance imaging (no mass with rapid rise or washout kinetics). Interventions Patients underwent marker-directed stereotactic multiple-core needle biopsy of the tumor bed with marker placement before breast-conservation surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures End points were negative predictive value (NPV) and sensitivity of the biopsy. Results A total of 105 patients were enrolled with 101 evaluable (mean [SD] age, 52.8 [10.5] years); 77 patients (76.2%) were younger than 60 years, and all breast cancer subtypes were represented with 32 (31.7%) triple-negative breast cancer, 21 (20.8%) hormone receptor–positive/epidermal growth factor receptor 2 ( ERBB2 ; formerly HER2 )–negative ( ERBB2 −) breast cancer, and 46 (45.5%) ERBB2 -positive ( ERBB2 +) breast cancer. In 101 evaluable patients, 36 had residual disease at surgery (pCR = 64%). With imaging criteria, NPV of the biopsy was 78.3% (95% CI, 67.9%-86.6%), and the sensitivity of the biopsy was 50% (95% CI, 32.9%-67.1%). In an exploratory subset analysis, the NPV in patients with ERBB2 + breast cancer was 90% (95% CI, 76.3%-97.2%). On retrospective central review, 62 of 101 enrolled patients met imaging eligibility criteria. In this exploratory post hoc analysis, NPV in these patients was 86.8% (95% CI, 74.7%-94.5%). Conclusions and Relevance These findings do not support breast conservation treatment without surgery based on the study criteria for cCR and rCR/near rCR by trimodality imaging and negative tumor-bed biopsy. Strict adherence to imaging criteria may be required to achieve acceptable predictive values. TRIAL Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03188393

Abstract Purpose: Low-dose tamoxifen reduces breast cancer risk, but remains untested in chest-irradiated cancer survivors—a population with breast cancer risk comparable with BRCA mutation carriers. We hypothesized that low-dose tamoxifen would be safe and efficacious in reducing radiation-related breast cancer risk. Patients and Methods: We conducted an investigator-initiated, randomized, phase IIb, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial (FDA IND107367) between 2010 and 2016 at 15 U.S. sites. Eligibility included ≥12 Gy of chest radiation by age 40 years and age at enrollment ≥25 years. Patients were randomized 1:1 to low-dose tamoxifen (5 mg/day) or identical placebo tablets for 2 years. The primary endpoint was mammographic dense area at baseline, 1 and 2 years. IGF-1 plays a role in breast carcinogenesis; circulating IGF-1 and IGF-BP3 levels at baseline, 1 and 2 years served as secondary endpoints. Results: Seventy-two participants (low-dose tamoxifen: n = 34, placebo: n = 38) enrolled at a median age of 43.8 years (35–49) were evaluable. They had received chest radiation at a median dose of 30.3 Gy. Compared with the placebo arm, the low-dose tamoxifen arm participants had significantly lower mammographic dense area (P = 0.02) and IGF1 levels (P < 0.0001), and higher IGFBP-3 levels (P = 0.02). There was no difference in toxicity biomarkers (serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase, lipids, and antithrombin III; urine N-telopeptide cross-links) between the treatment arms. We did not identify any grade 3–4 adverse events related to low-dose tamoxifen. Conclusions: In this randomized trial in chest-irradiated cancer survivors, we find that low-dose tamoxifen is effective in reducing established biomarkers of breast cancer risk and could serve as a risk-reduction strategy.

Background: Lymphoma patients exposed to chest RT during adolescence/young adulthood are at increased risk for BC; the cumulative incidence exceeds 20% by age 45 and the BC risk is comparable to that in women with BRCA1 mutations. These findings present an urgent yet unmet need to reduce the risk of BC in RT-exposed lymphoma survivors. The risk of BC is 50% lower in chest RT-exposed survivors who also receive ovarian radiation, suggesting a critical role of endogenous estrogens in RT-related breast carcinogenesis, making tamoxifen (a selective estrogen receptor modulator) an attractive risk-reducing option. Tamoxifen administered at 20 mg/d is effective in BC prevention in other high risk populations, but severe adverse events (SAE: venous thromboembolism, endometrial cancer) have limited its broad use. Previous biomarker trials in the general population have shown that LDTam (5mg/d) is not inferior to tamoxifen at 20 mg/d in reducing BC risk, and is associated with a safer AE profile. Mammographic breast density (MBD) is an established biomarker of BC risk; high MBD is associated with a 4-fold higher risk of BC. We hypothesized that LDTam would be effective in reducing BC risk (using MBD as a primary endpoint) in chest RT-exposed lymphoma survivors. We used an investigator-initiated, multi-institutional, randomized phase IIb, double blind, placebo controlled trial (FDA IND 107367) to test this hypothesis. Methods: Female patients from 13 sites were ≥25y at enrollment, with a history of exposure to chest RT at ≥12 Gy by age 40 for their primary cancer, and were off therapy for ≥6 mo. Subjects with a prior history of BC/DCIS, B/L mastectomy, or baseline MBD <25% in both breasts were excluded. Tamoxifen 5mg or identical placebo tablets were provided by Sharp Clinical Services (Allentown, PA) under good manufacturing practice. Subjects were randomized 1:1 in a double-blinded fashion by a Web-based system to receive LDTam or placebo daily for 2y. MBD (in both breasts) was measured centrally on digital scans independently by 3 radiologists at baseline, 1y and 2y. Using an intention-to-treat analysis, the efficacy of LDTam in reducing MBD was compared between the LDTam and placebo arms by applying a linear mixed effects model for bivariate normally distributed data with random intercept and time*treatment arm effects. Correlations between the left and right breasts and within radiologists were accounted for in the model. Treating clinicians and all research staff were blinded to the treatment arm. Results: A total of 72 patients (LDTam: n=34; placebo: n=38) participated in the trial; primary diagnosis: Hodgkin lymphoma (86%); non-Hodgkin lymphoma (10%); other (3%); median age at diagnosis of primary cancer: 21.5y (IQR, 16-28), and at trial enrollment: 43.8y (35-49); median time from diagnosis of primary cancer to study: 17.0y (12-26). Median chest RT dose: 30.3 Gy (21-37.3); 11% had received pelvic radiation; 39% were post-menopausal at study. Participant characteristics were comparable between the two treatment arms, as was the mean baseline MBD (LDTam: 52.6% vs. placebo: 50.4%, p=0.6). The time*treatment arm effect was statistically significant (LDTam vs. placebo: estimate = -1.7, SE = 0.5, p = 0.001), indicating a significantly lower mean fitted MBD for LDTam (43.9%) vs. placebo (47.3%) at 2y (Figure). This represented a 16.5% relative reduction in MBD on the LDTam arm, corresponding to an estimated 33% lower risk of BC (assuming that reductions in MBD have the same benefit in lymphoma survivors as they do in the general population). There were no grade 3 or 4 AEs related to LDTam. Grade 2 AEs did not differ between treatment arms (LDTam: 44.1% vs. placebo: 36.8%, p=0.6). There was no difference in the prevalence of moderate-to-severe patient-reported outcomes between the treatment arms (Table). Conclusion: Low-dose tamoxifen was associated with a significantly steeper decline in MBD in chest RT-exposed lymphoma survivors, when compared with placebo, and was safe and well-tolerated. This is the first trial demonstrating efficacy of a pharmacologic intervention in reducing a biomarker strongly associated with breast cancer risk in lymphoma survivors with a past history of chest radiation. Disclosures Palomares: Covance: Other: Medical monitoring. Henderson:Seattle Genetics: Research Funding. OffLabel Disclosure: The drug is a low-dose tamoxifen, a selective estrogen receptor modulator. Tamoxifen in standard doses is used to reduce the risk of breast cancer in high risk populations. Tamoxifen in standard or low doses have not been tested before for chest-irradiated cancer survivors to reduce the risk of radiation-related breast cancer.

Abstract Background: Patients achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) following neoadjuvant therapy have significantly improved event-free survival relative to those who do not; and pCR is an FDA-accepted endpoint to support accelerated approval of novel agents/combinations in the neoadjuvant treatment of high risk early stage breast cancer. Previous studies have shown that recurrence risk increased with increasing burden of residual disease (as assessed by the RCB index). As well, these studies suggest that patients with minimum residual disease (RCB-I class) also have favorable outcomes (comparable to those achieving a pCR) within high risk tumor subtypes. In this study, we assess whether integrating RCB with MRI functional tumor volume (FTV), which in itself is prognostic, can improve prediction of distant recurrence free survival (DRFS); and identify a subset of patients with minimal residual disease with comparable DRFS as those who achieved a pCR. Imaging tools can then be used to identify the subset that will do well early and guide the timing of surgical therapy. Method: We performed a pooled analysis of 596 patients from the I-SPY2 TRIAL with RCB, pre-surgical MRI FTV data and known follow-up (median 2.5 years). We first assessed whether FTV predicts residual disease (pCR or pCR/RCB-I) using ROC analysis. We applied a power transformation to normalize the pre-surgical FTV distribution; and assessed its association with DRFS using a bi-variate Cox proportional hazard model adjusting for HR/HER2 subtype. We also fitted a bivariate Cox model of RCB index adjusting for subtype; and assessed whether adding pre-surgical FTV to this model further improves association with DRFS using a likelihood ratio (LR) test. For the Cox modeling, penalized splines approximation of the transformed FTV and RCB index with 2 degrees of freedom was used to allow for non-linear effects of FTV and RCB on DRFS. Result: Pre-surgical MRI FTV is significantly associated with DRFS (Wald p&lt;0.00001), and more effective at predicting pCR/RCB-I than predicting pCR alone (AUC: 0.72 vs. 0.65). Larger pre-surgical FTV remains associated with worse DRFS adjusting for subtype (Wald p &lt;0.00001). The RCB index is also significantly associated with DRFS adjusting for subtype (Wald p&lt;0.00001). Adding FTV to a model containing RCB and subtype further improves association with DRFS (LR p=0.0007). RCB-I patients have excellent DRFS (94% at 3 years compared to 95% in the pCR group). Efforts are underway to identify an optimal threshold for dichotomizing pre-surgical FTV and FTV change measures for use in combination with pCR/RCB-I class to generate integrated RCB (iRCB) groups as a composite predictor of DRFS. Conclusion: Pre-surgical MRI FTV is effective at predicting minimal residual disease (RCB0/I) in the I-SPY 2 TRIAL. Despite the association between FTV and RCB, FTV appears to provide independent added prognostic value (to RCB and subtype), suggesting that integrating MRI volume measures and RCB into a composite predictor may improve DRFS prediction. Citation Format: Hylton NM, Symmans WF, Yau C, Li W, Hatzis C, Isaacs C, Albain KS, Chen Y-Y, Krings G, Wei S, Harada S, Datnow B, Fadare O, Klein M, Pambuccian S, Chen B, Adamson K, Sams S, Mhawech-Fauceglia P, Magliocco A, Feldman M, Rendi M, Sattar H, Zeck J, Ocal I, Tawfik O, Grasso LeBeau L, Sahoo S, Vinh T, Yang S, Adams A, Chien AJ, Ferero-Torres A, Stringer-Reasor E, Wallace A, Boughey JC, Ellis ED, Elias AD, Lang JE, Lu J, Han HS, Clark AS, Korde L, Nanda R, Northfelt DW, Khan QJ, Viscusi RK, Euhus DM, Edmiston KK, Chui SY, Kemmer K, Wood WC, Park JW, Liu MC, Olopade O, Tripathy D, Moulder SL, Rugo HS, Schwab R, Lo S, Helsten T, Beckwith H, Haugen PK, van't Veer LJ, Perlmutter J, Melisko ME, Wilson A, Peterson G, Asare AL, Buxton MB, Paoloni M, Clennell JL, Hirst GL, Singhrao R, Steeg K, Matthews JB, Sanil A, Berry SM, Abe H, Wolverton D, Crane EP, Ward KA, Nelson M, Niell BL, Oh K, Brandt KR, Bang DH, Ojeda-Fournier H, Eghtedari M, Sheth PA, Bernreuter WK, Umphrey H, Rosen MA, Dogan B, Yang W, Joe B, I-SPY 2 TRIAL Consortium, Yee D, Pusztai L, DeMichele A, Asare SM, Berry DA, Esserman LJ. Refining neoadjuvant predictors of three year distant metastasis free survival: Integrating volume change as measured by MRI with residual cancer burden [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P2-07-03.

Abstract Background In clinically node-negative (cN0) breast cancer patients with triple negative (TN) and HER2+ disease and breast pathological complete response (breast pCR), low rates of nodal positivity after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) have been demonstrated. In these patients, the omission of surgical axillary staging has been proposed. However, this information is not routinely known preoperatively. We aimed to validate the correlation between pathologic breast response and pathologic nodal status, and evaluate the relationship between response of the breast tumor on MRI and pathologic nodal status after NAC in cN0 patients in the I-SPY2 trial. Methods We identified all patients with cT1-4 cN0 breast cancer prior to NAC from graduated arms of the I-SPY2 trial, a prospective neoadjuvant chemotherapy trial. Absence of residual disease post-NAC was defined as longest diameter (LD) of 0 mm on MRI. Breast pCR was defined as the absence of invasive tumor in the breast at surgery. Associations between ypN0 and patient, MRI, and tumor characteristics were assessed using chi-square tests and univariate regression. Results Of 365 cT1-4 cN0 patients included, 128 had HR+/HER2- tumors (35%), 60 HR+/HER2+ tumors (16%), 34 HR-/HER2+ tumors (9%) and 143 TN tumors (39%). Overall, 283 patients (78%) were ypN0 after NAC and 152 patients (42%) had a breast pCR. ypN0 rate was higher in patients with a breast pCR than those with residual disease (93% vs 66%, p&lt;0.001). Patients with HR-/HER2+ and TN tumors were more likely to be ypN0 (97% and 87% respectively) than patients with HR+/HER2- and HR+/HER2+ disease (66% and 71% respectively, p&lt;0.001). Other characteristics associated with ypN0 were tumor grade (grade I 57%, grade II 66%, grade III 84%; p=0.002), MammaPrint Classification (High Risk 1 68% and High Risk 2 87%; p&lt;0.001) and absence of residual tumor in the breast on MRI (87% vs 72% in patients with evidence of tumor on MRI post-NAC/pre-surgery; p=0.003). In patients with HR-/HER2+, HR+/HER2+, HR-/HER2+ or TN disease and a breast pCR, ypN0 rate was respectively 82%, 96%, 96% and 97% (table 1). In patients with HR+/HER2-, HR+/HER2+, HR-/HER2+ or TN disease and with no evidence of residual disease in the breast on MRI, rate of ypN0 was 71%, 80%, 94% and 96% respectively. Conclusion In cT1-4 cN0 breast cancer patients with HR+/HER2+, HR-/HER2+ and TN tumors and a breast pCR, ypN0 rates after NAC are extremely high. In patients with HR-/HER2+ and TN tumors with no residual breast disease on MRI after NAC and pre-surgery, ypN0 rates are high enough to consider omission of axillary surgery. In patients with HR+ tumors, MRI is unsufficiently predictive for pathological response and can therefore not be used to select ypN0 patients. Research on the prediction of ypN0 in cN+ I-SPY2 patients is ongoing. Nodal status in patients with pCR and absence of residual disease on MRI Number of positive nodesBreast Cancer Subtype0123AllBreast pCR HR+/HER2-27(82)2(6)4(12)033(100)HR+/HER2+24(96)01(4)025(100)HR-/HER2+24(96)1(4)0025(100)TN67(97)2(3)0069(100)Absence of residual disease on MRI HR+/HER2-24(71)7(21)3(9)034(100)HR+/HER2+16(80)3(15)01(5)20(100)HR-/HER2+15(94)1(6)0016(100)TN54(96)2(4)0056(100) Citation Format: van der Noordaa ME, Esserman L, Yau C, Mukhtar R, Price E, Hylton N, Abe H, Wolverton D, Crane EP, Ward KA, Nelson M, Niell BL, Oh K, Brandt KR, Bang DH, Ojeda-Fournier H, Eghtedari M, Sheth PA, Bernreuter WK, Umphrey H, Rosen MA, Dogan B, Yang W, Joe B, van 't Veer L, Hirst G, Lancaster R, Wallace A, Alvaredo M, Symmans F, Asare S, Boughey JC, I-SPY2 Consortium. Role of breast MRI in predicting pathologically negative nodes after neoadjuvant chemotherapy in cN0 patients in the I-SPY2 trial [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr PD4-04.

Background The utility of early postoperative ultrasound measurements in predicting arteriovenous fistula (AVF) clinical maturation is uncertain. Methods We investigated the relationships of ultrasound parameters with AVF clinical maturation in newly created AVF, measured at 1 day and 2 and 6 weeks, in 602 participants of a multicenter, observational cohort study. A backward elimination algorithm identified ultrasound measurements that independently predicted unassisted and overall AVF maturation. Candidate variables included AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth, upper arm arterial diameter, presence of stenosis, presence of accessory veins, seven case-mix factors (age, sex, black race, AVF location, diabetes, dialysis status, and body mass index), and clinical center. We evaluated the accuracy of the resulting models for clinical prediction. Results At each ultrasound measurement time, AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth each predicted in a statistically significant manner both unassisted and overall clinical maturation. Moreover, neither the remaining ultrasound parameters nor case-mix factors were associated with clinical AVF maturation after accounting for blood flow, diameter, and depth, although maturation probabilities differed among clinical centers before and after accounting for these parameters. The crossvalidated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for models constructed using these three ultrasound parameters was 0.69, 0.74, and 0.79 at 1 day and 2 and 6 weeks, respectively, for unassisted AVF clinical maturation and 0.69, 0.71, and 0.76, respectively, for overall AVF maturation. Conclusions AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth moderately predicted unassisted and overall AVF clinical maturation. The other factors considered did not further improve AVF maturation prediction.