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OBJECTIVECurrent costs associated with spine care are unsustainable. Productivity loss and time away from work for patients who were once gainfully employed contributes greatly to the financial burden experienced by individuals and, more broadly, society. Therefore, it is vital to identify the factors associated with return to work (RTW) after lumbar spine surgery. In this analysis, the authors used data from a national prospective outcomes registry to create a predictive model of patients’ ability to RTW after undergoing lumbar spine surgery for degenerative spine disease.METHODSData from 4694 patients who underwent elective spine surgery for degenerative lumbar disease, who had been employed preoperatively, and who had completed a 3-month follow-up evaluation, were entered into a prospective, multicenter registry. Patient-reported outcomes—Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), numeric rating scale (NRS) for back pain (BP) and leg pain (LP), and EQ-5D scores—were recorded at baseline and at 3 months postoperatively. The time to RTW was defined as the period between operation and date of returning to work. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, including an array of preoperative factors, was fitted for RTW. The model performance was measured using the concordance index (c-index).RESULTSEighty-two percent of patients (n = 3855) returned to work within 3 months postoperatively. The risk-adjusted predictors of a lower likelihood of RTW were being preoperatively employed but not working at the time of presentation, manual labor as an occupation, worker’s compensation, liability insurance for disability, higher preoperative ODI score, higher preoperative NRS-BP score, and demographic factors such as female sex, African American race, history of diabetes, and higher American Society of Anesthesiologists score. The likelihood of a RTW within 3 months was higher in patients with higher education level than in those with less than high school–level education. The c-index of the model’s performance was 0.71.CONCLUSIONSThis study presents a novel predictive model for the probability of returning to work after lumbar spine surgery. Spine care providers can use this model to educate patients and encourage them in shared decision-making regarding the RTW outcome. This evidence-based decision support will result in better communication between patients and clinicians and improve postoperative recovery expectations, which will ultimately increase the likelihood of a positive RTW trajectory.

OBJECTIVEQuality and outcomes registry platforms lie at the center of many emerging evidence-driven reform models. Specifically, clinical registry data are progressively informing health care decision-making. In this analysis, the authors used data from a national prospective outcomes registry (the Quality Outcomes Database) to develop a predictive model for 12-month postoperative pain, disability, and quality of life (QOL) in patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery.METHODSIncluded in this analysis were 7618 patients who had completed 12 months of follow-up. The authors prospectively assessed baseline and 12-month patient-reported outcomes (PROs) via telephone interviews. The PROs assessed were those ascertained using the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), EQ-5D, and numeric rating scale (NRS) for back pain (BP) and leg pain (LP). Variables analyzed for the predictive model included age, gender, body mass index, race, education level, history of prior surgery, smoking status, comorbid conditions, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, symptom duration, indication for surgery, number of levels surgically treated, history of fusion surgery, surgical approach, receipt of workers’ compensation, liability insurance, insurance status, and ambulatory ability. To create a predictive model, each 12-month PRO was treated as an ordinal dependent variable and a separate proportional-odds ordinal logistic regression model was fitted for each PRO.RESULTSThere was a significant improvement in all PROs (p < 0.0001) at 12 months following lumbar spine surgery. The most important predictors of overall disability, QOL, and pain outcomes following lumbar spine surgery were employment status, baseline NRS-BP scores, psychological distress, baseline ODI scores, level of education, workers’ compensation status, symptom duration, race, baseline NRS-LP scores, ASA score, age, predominant symptom, smoking status, and insurance status. The prediction discrimination of the 4 separate novel predictive models was good, with a c-index of 0.69 for ODI, 0.69 for EQ-5D, 0.67 for NRS-BP, and 0.64 for NRS-LP (i.e., good concordance between predicted outcomes and observed outcomes).CONCLUSIONSThis study found that preoperative patient-specific factors derived from a prospective national outcomes registry significantly influence PRO measures of treatment effectiveness at 12 months after lumbar surgery. Novel predictive models constructed with these data hold the potential to improve surgical effectiveness and the overall value of spine surgery by optimizing patient selection and identifying important modifiable factors before a surgery even takes place. Furthermore, these models can advance patient-focused care when used as shared decision-making tools during preoperative patient counseling.

181 Background: To evaluate whether metformin (Met) a widely-used, nontoxic oral antidiabetic drug with putative anticancer properties leads to improvements in prostate cancer (PC) outcomes in the CHAARTED trial. Methods: In the CHAARTED database where metformin use at baseline was recorded prospectively, we identified patients with metastatic PC who underwent either ADT alone or ADT and docetaxel (D) chemotherapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the effect of Metformin on outcomes. Results: A total of 788 patients (median age, 63 y) had complete data after randomization. Comparison of ADT+D+Met (n = 39) to ADT+D (n = 357) and ADT+Met (n = 29) to ADT alone (n = 363) revealed similar clinicopathologic characteristics. Cause of death was PC in 13(81%) of ADT+D+Met, 72(85%) ADT+D, 9(82%) ADT+Met and 105(84%) ADT alone groups. See table for PC outcomes and overall survival by metformin use. Cox regression analysis for overall survival stratified by stratification factors at randomization demonstrates Met use was associated with a trend for worse overall survival (HR 1.47 95%CI: [0.95,2.26], p = 0.08) with adjustment for treatment arm and prior local therapy. In contrast, ADT+D use (HR 0.62; 95%CI: [0.47,0.81]) and prior local therapy with surgery or radiation (HR 0.56; 95% CI: [0.38, 0.82]) were associated with improved survival. Conclusions: In this study, baseline metformin did not improve PC outcomes. Partial support and drug supply by Sanofi. Clinical trial information: NCT00309985. [Table: see text]

137 Background: Prior work from SWOG 9346 revealed that PSA ≤ 0.2 ng/dL at 7 months (mo) is prognostic for longer OS with ADT alone. We sought to evaluate if this optimal decline remained predictive of better OS when D was added to ADT for initial mHSPC treatment. Methods: We performed a landmark survival analysis at 7 mo using the E3805 database (NCT00309985). Inclusion required at least 7 mo of followup and PSA levels at 7 mo from ADT initiation. Survival was defined from ADT start or randomization to death. SWOG 9346 PSA nadirs of ≤ 0.2, > 0.2-4 and > 4 were used as classifiers. Results: 719 patients were eligible for analysis: 358 treated with ADT plus D and 361 with ADT alone. Median follow-up was 23.1 mo. On multivariable analysis (MVA), achieving a PSA ≤ 0.2 at 7 mo was more likely if the patient received D and had lower volume disease, prior local therapy, and lower baseline PSAs (all p ≤ 0.01). Across all patients, median OS was significantly longer if PSA at 7 mo reached ≤ 0.2 compared to > 4 (p < 0.0001) (Table). On MVA, PSA ≤ 0.2 at 7 mo and low volume disease were prognostic of longer OS (all p < 0.01). On ADT, 28.8% achieved a PSA ≤ 0.2 at 7 mo vs. 45.3% on ADT+D. Patients on ADT alone who achieved a PSA nadir ≤ 0.2 had the best survival. These patients were more likely to have low volume disease (56.7%) compared to the ADT + D pts (46.3%). Conclusions: Achieving PSA ≤ 0.2 at 7 mo remains prognostic for longer OS with ADT for mHSPC, whether administered alone or with D. Adding D to ADT increased the likelihood of a lower PSA and improved survival. Partial support and drug supply by Sanofi. Clinical trial information: NCT00309985. [Table: see text]

136 Background: Patients with a low burden of metastatic disease and who relapse after localized therapy with curative intent have a longer overall survival. It is unclear whether these patients benefit from early docetaxel (D). Methods: Patients in GETUG-AFU15 (N = 385, median follow-up 84 mo) and CHAARTED (N = 790, median follow up 54 mo) were randomized to ADT alone or ADT + D and outcomes described using the same definition of high volume (HV) and low volume (LV) disease. (HV: visceral metastases and/or 4 or more bone metastases with at least one outside the axis) and whether the patients had prior local therapy or not. Results: Table 1 details across both studies that de novo HV group treated with ADT alone has the shortest overall survival and D has a consistent effect in improving OS. In contrast, in both studies patients with LV disease had a much longer OS with no evidence that D improved OS. Conclusions: There was no apparent survival benefit in CHAARTED and GETUG-15 studies with D for LV whether patients had prior local treatment or not. Across both studies, early D had a consistent effect and improved OS in HV pts especially those with no prior local therapy. Partial Support and drug supply by Sanofi. Clinical trial information: NCT00104715, NCT00309985. [Table: see text]

131 Background: Research demonstrating a volume-outcome relationship has resulted in regionalization of complex cancer surgery to high volume hospitals. A simultaneous national trend towards improved surgical outcomes brings into question whether the potential benefits of regionalization are still relevant. We hypothesize that the difference in adjusted post-operative mortality between low and high volume hospitals has decreased over time. Methods: The National Cancer Database (NCDB) was used to identify patients with colon, esophageal, and pancreatic cancer undergoing curative intent surgery from 2003-2011. Hospitals were divided into low ( < 25th percentile), medium (25th-75th) and high ( > 75thpercentile) volume groups depending on annual volume of cancer-specific surgery. Year-specific hospital averaged observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated for 90-day mortality. Poisson regression was used to model hospital averaged O/E ratios over time. Results: Our study population included 343,929 patients with colon (88%), esophageal (5%) and pancreatic (7%) cancer. There were significant (p < 0.05) improvements in adjusted 90-day mortality from 2003 and 2011 for all volume categories and cancer types, except in high volume hospitals for esophageal cancer. In 2003, high volume hospitals had significantly better outcomes compared to low volume hospitals for all cancer types, as suggested by lower O/E ratios for 90 day mortality (p < 0.05). However, by 2011 the difference in O/E ratios for 90 day mortality was no longer significantly lower for high compared to low volume hospitals (p > 0.05); this was true for all three cancer types (Figure1). Conclusions: During the period of our study, 90-day mortality following gastrointestinal cancer surgery improved in low, medium and high volume hospitals. However, by 2011 the difference in adjusted post-operative mortality between low and high volume hospitals was not significantly different, likely due to global improvements in operative and peri-operative care. This attenuation of the volume-outcome curve has important implications for policy pertaining to regionalization of cancer care in the US.

Abstract Breast cancer risks conferred by many germline missense variants in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, often referred to as variants of uncertain significance (VUS), have not been established. In this study, associations between 19 BRCA1 and 33 BRCA2 missense substitution variants and breast cancer risk were investigated through a breast cancer case–control study using genotyping data from 38 studies of predominantly European ancestry (41,890 cases and 41,607 controls) and nine studies of Asian ancestry (6,269 cases and 6,624 controls). The BRCA2 c.9104A&gt;C, p.Tyr3035Ser (OR = 2.52; P = 0.04), and BRCA1 c.5096G&gt;A, p.Arg1699Gln (OR = 4.29; P = 0.009) variant were associated with moderately increased risks of breast cancer among Europeans, whereas BRCA2 c.7522G&gt;A, p.Gly2508Ser (OR = 2.68; P = 0.004), and c.8187G&gt;T, p.Lys2729Asn (OR = 1.4; P = 0.004) were associated with moderate and low risks of breast cancer among Asians. Functional characterization of the BRCA2 variants using four quantitative assays showed reduced BRCA2 activity for p.Tyr3035Ser compared with wild-type. Overall, our results show how BRCA2 missense variants that influence protein function can confer clinically relevant, moderately increased risks of breast cancer, with potential implications for risk management guidelines in women with these specific variants. Cancer Res; 77(11); 2789–99. ©2017 AACR.