Citations

Background Traditional clinical trial designs strive to definitively establish the superiority of an experimental treatment, which results in risk-adverse criteria and large sample sizes. Increasingly, common cancers are recognized as consisting of small subsets with specific aberrations for targeted therapy, making large trials infeasible. Purpose To compare the performance of different trial design strategies over a long-term research horizon. Methods We simulated a series of two-treatment superiority trials over 15 years using different design parameters. Trial parameters examined included the number of positive trials to establish superiority (one-trial vs. two-trial rule), α level (2.5%–50%), and the number of trials in the 15-year period, K (thus, trial sample size). The design parameters were evaluated for different disease scenarios, accrual rates, and distributions of treatment effect. Metrics used included the overall survival gain at a 15-year horizon measured by the hazard ratio (HR), year 15 versus year 0. We also computed the expected total survival benefit and the risk of selecting as new standard of care at year 15 a treatment inferior to the initial control treatment, P(detrimental effect). Results Expected survival benefits over the 15-year horizon were maximized when more (smaller) trials were conducted than recommended under traditional criteria, using the criterion of one positive trial (vs. two), and relaxing the α value from 2.5% to 20%. Reducing the sample size and relaxing the α value also increased the likelihood of selecting an inferior treatment at the end. The impact of α and K on the survival benefit depended on the specific disease scenario and accrual rate: greater gains for relaxing α in diseases with good outcome and/or low accrual rates and greater gains for increasing K for diseases with poor outcomes. Trials with smaller sample size did not perform well when using stringent (standard) level of evidence. For each disease scenario and accrual rate studied, the optimal design, defined as the design that the maximized expected total survival benefit while constraining P(detrimental effect) < 2.5%, specified α = 20% or 10%, and a sample size considerably smaller than that recommended by the traditional designs. The results were consistent under different assumed distributions for treatment effect. Limitations The simulations assumed no toxicity issues and did not consider interim analyses. Conclusions It is worthwhile to consider a design paradigm that seeks to maximize the expected survival benefit across a series of trials, over a longer research horizon. In today’s environment of constrained, biomarker-selected populations, our results indicate that smaller sample sizes and larger α values lead to greater long-term survival gains compared to traditional large trials designed to meet stringent criteria with a low efficacy bar.

Abstract Light-chain (AL) amyloidosis remains incurable despite recent therapeutic advances. Given the activity of the lenalidomide-alkylating agent combination in myeloma, we designed this phase 2 trial of lenalidomide, cyclophosphamide, and dexamethasone in AL amyloidosis. Thirty-five patients, including 24 previously untreated, were enrolled. Nearly one-half of the patients had cardiac stage III disease and 28% had ≥ 3 organs involved. The overall hematologic response (≥ partial response [PR]) rate was 60%, including 40% with very-good partial response or better. Using serum-free light chain for assessing response, 77% of patients had a hematologic response. Organ responses were seen in 29% of patients and were limited to those with a hematologic response. The median hematologic progression-free survival was 28.3 months, and the median overall survival was 37.8 months. Hematologic toxicity was the predominant adverse event, followed by fatigue, edema, and gastrointestinal symptoms. A grade 3 or higher toxicity occurred in 26 patients (74%) including ≥ grade 3 hematologic toxicity in 16 patients (46%) and ≥ grade 3 nonhematologic toxicity in 25 patients (71%). Seven patients (20%) died on study, primarily because of advanced disease. Lenalidomide, cyclophosphamide, and dexamethasone (CRd) is an effective combination for treatment of AL amyloidosis and leads to durable hematologic responses as well as organ responses with manageable toxicity. The trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00564889).

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to define the risk of progression and survival of patients with smoldering Waldenström macroglobulinemia (SWM). SWM is defined clinically as having a serum monoclonal IgM protein ≥ 3 g/dL and/or ≥ 10% bone marrow lymphoplasmacytic infiltration but no evidence of end-organ damage (anemia, constitutional symptoms, hyperviscosity, lymphadenopathy, or hepatosplenomegaly). We searched a computerized database and reviewed the medical records of all patients at Mayo Clinic who fulfilled the criteria of SWM between 1974 and 1995. During 285 cumulative person-years of follow-up of the 48 patients with SWM (median, 15.4 years), 34 (71%) progressed to symptomatic Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM) requiring treatment, one to primary amyloidosis, and one to lymphoma (total, 75%). The cumulative probability of progression to symptomatic WM, amyloidosis, or lymphoma was 6% at 1 year, 39% at 3 years, 59% at 5 years, and 68% at 10 years. The major risk factors for progression were percentage of lymphoplasmacytic cells in the bone marrow, size of the serum M-spike, and the hemoglobin value. Patients with SWM should be followed and not treated until symptomatic WM develops. Treatment on a clinical trial for those at greatest risk of progression should be considered.

SummaryBackgroundIt remains unclear whether a long‐acting preparation of octreotide (Sandostatin LAR) can be safely used for portal hypertension in patients with compensated cirrhosis.AimTo determine the safety and efficacy of LAR among patients with Child Pugh Class A or B cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices.MethodsA randomised, double‐blind, placebo‐controlled study was conducted in 39 patients with cirrhosis and small oesophageal varices. Safety was based on frequency and severity of adverse events. Efficacy was determined by hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) measured at baseline and day 84 following administration of LAR 10 mg (n = 15), 30 mg (n = 10) or saline (n = 14). Fasting and postprandial portal blood flow (PBF), superior mesenteric artery pulsatility index (SMA‐PI), glucagon and octreotide levels were measured. An intention‐to‐treat analysis was performed.ResultsFour patients in the LAR 30 group (40%) withdrew from the study due to serious adverse events. No patient in the LAR 10 or control group had serious adverse events. There was no statistically significant decrease between HVPG at day 84 and baseline with LAR 30 mg (11.8 ± 2.3 mmHg vs. 14.1 ± 3.2), LAR 10 mg (15.3 ± 4.8 mmHg vs. 15.1 ± 3.8), or saline (13.3 ± 3.8 mmHg vs. 15.1 ± 4.3) (P = 0.26). Neither PBF, SMA‐PI nor plasma glucagon levels were significantly decreased from baseline (P = 0.56).ConclusionsThe absence of significant haemodynamic benefit, as well as the high frequency of severe adverse events associated with use of LAR, do not support the use of this agent in the treatment of portal hypertension.

Although body fat distribution strongly predicts metabolic health outcomes related to excess weight, little is known about the factors an individual might exhibit that predict a particular fat distribution pattern. We utilized the meal fatty acid tracer-adipose biopsy technique to assess upper and lower body subcutaneous (UBSQ and LBSQ, respectively) meal fat storage in lean volunteers who then were overfed to gain weight. Meal fatty acid storage in UBSQ and LBSQ adipose tissue, as well as daytime substrate oxidation (indirect calorimetry), was measured in 28 nonobese volunteers [ n = 15 men, body mass index = 22.1 ± 2.5 (SD)] before and after an ∼8-wk period of supervised overfeeding (weight gain = 4.6 ± 2.2 kg, fat gain = 3.8 ± 1.7 kg). Meal fat storage (mg/g adipose tissue lipid) in UBSQ ( visit 1: 0.78 ± 0.34 and 1.04 ± 0.71 for women and men, respectively, P = 0.22; visit 2: 0.71 ± 0.24 and 0.90 ± 0.37 for women and men, respectively, P = 0.08) and LBSQ ( visit 1: 0.60 ± 0.23 and 0.48 ± 0.29 for women and men, respectively, P = 0.25; visit 2: 0.62 ± 0.24 and 0.65 ± 0.23 for women and men, respectively, P = 0.67) adipose tissue did not differ between men and women at either visit. Fractional meal fatty acid storage in UBSQ (0.31 ± 0.15) or LBSQ (0.19 ± 0.13) adipose tissue at visit 1 did not predict the percent change in regional body fat in response to overfeeding. These data indicate that meal fat uptake trafficking in the short term (24 h) is not predictive of body fat distribution patterns. In general, UBSQ adipose tissue appears to be a favored depot for meal fat deposition in both sexes, and redistribution of meal fatty acids likely takes place at later time periods.