Citations

PURPOSE Most oncology trials define superiority according to dichotomized P value thresholds, which are frequently misinterpreted. Posterior probability, however, directly estimates the probability of the hypothesis at hand. Here, we reanalyze a large collection of modern phase III trials and benchmark posterior probability versus the standard trial interpretation based on statistical significance. METHODS Outcomes from 194,129 patients were manually reconstructed from the primary end points of 230 phase III, superiority-design oncology trials. Posterior probabilities of treatment effect were then calculated across multiple priors and several effect sizes of clinical relevance, including minimum clinically important difference (MCID) defined as hazard ratio (HR) < 0.8 per ASCO criteria or HR < 0.64 per European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) criteria. RESULTS All trials interpreted as superior using P value thresholds had probabilities >90% for achieving at least marginal benefits (HR < 1). However, only 62% of positive trials (74/120) had >90% probabilities of achieving the ASCO MCID (HR < 0.8), even under an enthusiastic prior, including 70% of trials (57/82) leading to regulatory approval. Only 30% of positive trials (36/120) had >90% probability of achieving the ESMO MCID (HR < 0.64). Conversely, 24% of trials (26/110) interpreted as not superior had >90% probability of achieving marginal benefits (HR < 1), even under a skeptical prior. CONCLUSION Bayesian models, although often in agreement with statistical significance thresholds, add considerable unique interpretative value for a subset of phase III oncology trials. Posterior probability may provide a solution for overcoming the discrepancies between refuting the null hypothesis and detecting clinically relevant effects.

Abstract Purpose: Circulating tumor fraction estimate (ctFE) is a machine learning–derived composite metric of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) burden. We hypothesized that pre-treatment and early on-treatment ctFE could robustly risk-stratify patients with locally advanced (LA) and oligometastatic non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with radiotherapy (RT). Experimental Design: In a prospective phase II clinical trial (NCT03916419), 26 patients with unresectable stage IIB to IIIC NSCLC received magnetic resonance (MR)-guided hypofractionated chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) followed by immunotherapy. Plasma ctDNA was profiled at baseline and mid-treatment (days 10–14) to derive ctFE and maximum variant allele frequency (Max VAF). A burden-based ctFE threshold derived from baseline samples was applied unchanged to mid-treatment samples and validated in two external cohorts: LA NSCLC treated with chemoRT (LA-RW; n = 94) and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT (OM-RW; n = 309). Results: Pre- and mid-treatment ctFE burden strongly stratified overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS), outperforming Max VAF and ctFE detectability. The baseline ctFE was prognostic for OS (HR 5.93, P = 0.005) and PFS (HR 11.08, P &lt; 0.001) and remained significant at mid-treatment (OS: HR 7.08; PFS: HR 12.06; both P &lt; 0.001). Early ctFE dynamics defined three molecular response groups with OS separation (median OS 60.8 vs. 13.0 vs. 2.9 months; P &lt; 0.001). ctFE remained associated with survival in both validation cohorts. Conclusions: Early ctFE derived from a clinically available, tumor-naïve ctDNA assay enables noninvasive risk stratification in LA and oligometastatic NSCLC treated with RT, supporting its use as a practical biomarker for precision treatment adaptation.

Study objectives To evaluate and compare the performance of two proprietary frontier large language models (LLMs), ChatGPT-5 and Grok-4, on diagnostic reasoning and foundational knowledge tasks within the specialty domain of sleep medicine. Methods The models were evaluated on two tasks: case-based reasoning using 79 clinical vignettes from the AASM Case Book of Sleep Medicine and knowledge assessment using 897 multiple-choice questions (MCQs) from board review materials. For vignettes, final diagnosis was scored by concept-level exact match, and differential diagnosis (DDx) was scored on a fixed top-5 output using concept-level matching with synonym normalization to compute precision, recall, and F 1-score. MCQ performance was the proportion correct. Inter-model performance was compared using the Mann–Whitney U test. Results Both models achieved high accuracy for final diagnosis (92.4% for both; 95% CI 86.4, 98.4) and MCQs (ChatGPT-5: 93.0%; Grok-4: 92.8%). However, performance on generating a comprehensive differential diagnosis was suboptimal, with modest F 1-scores for both ChatGPT-5 (0.55 ± 0.20) and Grok-4 (0.59 ± 0.20). There were no statistically significant differences in performance between the two models across any metric ( p &gt; 0.05). Conclusions Frontier LLMs demonstrated high accuracy in sleep medicine tasks requiring knowledge recall and direct pattern recognition but showed more limited performance in complex clinical reasoning tasks such as generating a comprehensive differential diagnosis. These findings suggest that current general-purpose models may be more reliable for focused knowledge support than for broad hypothesis generation. Future studies should evaluate whether domain-adapted models or clinician-in-the-loop workflows can improve real-world diagnostic usefulness and safety.

This study aims to evaluate the implementation of the uterine sliding sign in routine pelvic ultrasound examinations for improving the diagnosis of deep endometriosis. A retrospective analysis was conducted at Mayo Clinic’s Florida and Arizona campuses, including 200 premenopausal and perimenopausal women with chronic pelvic pain, infertility, or suspected endometriosis. Sonographers performed a uterine sliding maneuver during transvaginal ultrasound, and the acquisition times were recorded. Sonographer experience and the time required to perform the sliding sign were analyzed using Microsoft Excel. The median acquisition time for the uterine sliding sign was 26 seconds, with no statistically significant difference based on sonographer experience. The addition of this maneuver extended the ultrasound examination by <1 minute on average, regardless of sonographer experience level. Incorporating the uterine sliding sign into routine pelvic ultrasound protocols is a quick and efficient method that enhances the detection of deep endometriosis, potentially reducing the significant diagnostic delay associated with endometriosis. This study supports the feasibility and minimal time impact of implementing the Society of Radiologists in Ultrasound (SRU) recommendations for augmented pelvic ultrasound in clinical practice.

Importance Standard treatment for human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) often includes 7 weeks of intensive chemoradiotherapy with substantial toxic effects. Lowering the radiation dose to gross disease may maintain cancer control with fewer toxic effects. Objective To evaluate long-term oncologic outcomes among patients with HPV-associated OPC treated with definitive deintensified (chemo)radiotherapy. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study evaluated consecutive patients treated with (chemo)radiotherapy between September 2014 and August 2022 at multiple institutions under one academic hospital system. Eligible patients had p16-positive OPC with a clinical stage from T0 to T3 and N0 to N2c (according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer [AJCC] Staging Manual, seventh edition ) and favorable smoking history. Data were analyzed between August 2023 and October 2025. Interventions Treatment was 60-Gy intensity-modulated radiotherapy with first-choice concurrent chemotherapy of weekly cisplatin, 30 mg/m 2 , or weekly cisplatin, 40 mg/m 2 . Patients with OPC with a clinical stage from T0 to T2 and N0 to N1 (according to AJCC, seventh edition ) were recommended 60-Gy radiotherapy alone. Main Outcomes and Measures Evaluation of locoregional recurrence was the primary outcome. Distant recurrence, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were secondary outcomes. Results A total of 240 patients received definitive deintensified (chemo)radiotherapy (207 receiving prospective protocol-adherent treatment and 33 receiving non–protocol-adherent treatment). Mean (SD) patient age was 60.3 (9.9) years (range, 33.0-84.0 years); 206 (85.8%) were male, and 34 (14.2%) were female. The cohort included 139 never smokers (57.9%) and 101 former smokers (42.1%) (median smoking history, 9.0 pack-years [range, 0.25-50.0 pack-years]). Concurrent chemotherapy was prescribed for 205 patients (85.4%), with 185 (77.1%) receiving cisplatin, and 165 (68.8%) receiving weekly cisplatin, 30 mg/m 2 . Median follow-up for surviving patients was 6.5 years (range, 0.44-11.0 years; 208 of 210 [99.0%] with minimum 2-year follow-up). Outcomes were as follows: 2-year OS was 97.9% (95% CI, 96.1%-99.7%), and 5-year OS, 92.4% (95% CI, 89.0%-96.0%); 2-year PFS, 94.1% (95% CI, 91.2%-97.2%), and 5-year PFS, 86.5% (95% CI, 82.1%-91.0%); 2-year locoregional recurrence, 1.3% (95% CI, −0.2% to 2.7%), and 5-year locoregional recurrence, 3.4% (95% CI, 1.1%-5.8%); 2-year distant recurrence, 4.6% (95% CI, 1.9%-7.3%), and 5-year distant recurrence, 7.3% (95% CI, 3.9%-10.7%). The median time to progression events was 1.9 years (range, 0.3-5.1 years); 12 of 26 recurrences (46.2%) occurred after 2 years. Thirty-three patients with low-risk disease (clinical stage T0-T2, N0-N1, according to AJCC, seventh edition ) received radiotherapy alone, which resulted in a 5-year PFS of 93.8%, with no patients experiencing a locoregional recurrence. Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study, modest dose deintensification of 60-Gy radiotherapy in patients with HPV-associated OPC shows favorable rates of locoregional control. These findings provide support for ongoing investigations of deintensified radiotherapy.

Abstract Pancreatic cancer disproportionately affects Black individuals in the United States, but they have limited representation in genetic studies of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). To address this gap, we performed admixture mapping and genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) in genetically inferred African ancestry individuals (1,030 cases and 889 controls). Admixture mapping identified three regions with a significantly higher proportion of African ancestry in cases compared to controls (5q33.3, 10p1, 22q12.3). GWAS identified a genome-wide significant association at 5p15.33 ( CLPTM1L , rs383009:T>C, T Allele Frequency=0.51, OR:1.45, P value=1.24×10 -8 ), a locus previously associated with PDAC. Known loci at 5p15.33, 7q32.3, 8q24.21 and 7q25.1 also replicated (P value <0.01). Multi-ancestral fine-mapping identified two potential causal SNPs (rs3830069 and rs2735940) at 5p15.33. Collectively these findings identified novel PDAC risk loci and expanded our understanding of this deadly cancer in underrepresented populations, emphasizing the multifactorial nature of PDAC risk including inherited genetic and non-genetic factors. Statement of Significance To understand how genetic variation contributes to PDAC risk in Black people in North American, we studied individuals of genetically-inferred African ancestry. We identified novel risk loci and differences in the contribution of known loci. This demonstrates that ancestry-informed genetic analyses improve our understanding of PDAC risk and enhances discovery.

OBJECTIVE Overuse of broad-spectrum empiric antimicrobials remains common in children hospitalized with respiratory tract infections (RTI). A negative methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) nasal swab (MNS) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) result has been shown to have a high negative predictive value for MRSA in RTI. In this quality improvement (QI) initiative, we developed a pharmacist-driven approach to reduce the duration of empiric vancomycin for RTI in children. The primary aim was the time to de-escalation of vancomycin, and the secondary aim was the reduction in vancomycin monitoring in patients hospitalized with RTI. METHODS Baseline duration of vancomycin therapy was assessed by conducting a retrospective chart review. After root cause analysis and engaging key stakeholders, an electronic health record OurPractice Advisory (OPA) was implemented, prompting pharmacists to order an MNS PCR during order verification for vancomycin with an RTI indication. RESULTS Preimplementation (01/01/2021 to 08/31/2023) included 89 patients, and 25 postimplementation (09/21/2023 to 05/31/2024). We found a 36% decrease in mean vancomycin duration from 53 to 34 hours after implementation of the pharmacist-driven OPA. Postimplementation, 24% of patients had a vancomycin concentration obtained, compared with 37% preimplementation. No patients were readmitted within 30 days postimplementation, compared with 1 patient preimplementation. CONCLUSIONS This QI initiative provides preliminary data that empiric vancomycin duration in pediatric patients with RTI may be impacted by pharmacist-facing OPA implementation, prompting ordering of MNS PCR at the time of vancomycin verification. This initiative could be replicated at other institutions seeking to reduce empiric vancomycin usage.

Importance Novel blood culture diagnostics provide rapid antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) results for bacteria causing bloodstream infections (BSIs) but have unclear clinical impact. Objective To evaluate clinical outcomes of blood culture testing using a rapid AST method compared with standard AST in patients with BSIs caused by gram-negative bacilli in regions with high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance. Design, Setting, and Participants Open-label randomized clinical trial that enrolled participants from December 2023 to May 2025 (final follow-up, June 18, 2025) at 7 medical centers in Greece (n = 2), India (n = 1), Israel (n = 3), and Spain (n = 1). Hospitalized patients (adults and children) with BSIs caused by gram-negative bacilli were eligible. Statistical analysis was conducted from August 2025 to January 2026. Intervention Patients were randomized to undergo blood culture evaluation using rapid, phenotypic AST directly from positive blood cultures plus standard susceptibility testing (n = 413) vs standard susceptibility testing alone (n = 437). Local antimicrobial stewardship teams reviewed all patients and provided treatment recommendations. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was a desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) at day 30, with 3 categories (alive without deleterious events, alive with deleterious events, and death). The difference between rapid and standard testing was summarized as the probability that the DOOR outcomes were more desirable in the rapid testing group. Superiority was concluded if the lower limit of the 95% CI exceeded 50%. Secondary outcomes included 30-day mortality, length of hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, acquisition of hospital-acquired infections, time to effective antibiotic therapy within 3 days, and time to antibiotic escalation or deescalation within 3 days. Results Of the 899 patients randomized, 850 were included in the primary outcome analysis (median [IQR] age, 72 [21] years; 43% female). The probability that DOOR outcomes were more favorable in the rapid testing group was 48.8% (95% CI, 45.3%-52.4%). Median time to effective antibiotic therapy was not different between the groups in the as-randomized population. Median time to antibiotic escalation or deescalation was faster in the rapid testing group by 14 hours (95% CI, 6-22) in the as-randomized population. There were no differences between the groups in other secondary outcomes. In the prespecified subgroup with carbapenem-resistant infections, median time to effective therapy was 9.5 hours in the rapid testing group vs 28 hours in the standard testing group (difference, −18 hours [95% CI, −42 to 6]). Conclusions and Relevance Among patients with gram-negative bacilli BSIs, rapid blood culture AST was not superior to standard testing by DOOR. When considered with other efficacy and safety outcomes, these findings may help inform the use of rapid susceptibility testing in clinical practice. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT06174649

Background: The most critical exam components in patients seeking rhinoplasty have not been established. Objective: To identify concordance among experienced rhinoplasty surgeons regarding the most important exam features for various deformities. Methods: An online questionnaire was distributed to board-certified facial plastic and plastic surgeons experienced in rhinoplasty, with seven nasal deformity categories: dorsal hump, crooked nose, boxy tip, pinched tip, droopy tip, saddle nose, and nonallergic nasal obstruction. For each, respondents were asked to rank the three most important anatomic regions to examine from the following: nasal bones, midvault cartilage, skin, radix, facial profile, lip, tip, septum, internal nasal valve, nostrils, inferior and middle turbinates. For each ranked region, up to three important features were chosen. Normalized Attention Scores (NAS) were calculated to determine agreement amongst surgeons. Results: A total of 13 facial plastic and 8 plastic surgeons were invited to participate and completed the questionnaire. All cases had high agreement demonstrated by NAS, with the dorsal hump case exhibiting the greatest variability in responses. Conclusions: In this survey of 21 rhinoplasty surgeons, there was general agreement regarding the most relevant anatomical structures and features, which may provide a conceptual foundation for identifying key exam features for seven common complaints in patients seeking rhinoplasty.