Citations

666 Background: Early tumor shrinkage (ETS; ≥20% decrease from baseline) and early objective tumor response (EOTR; CR/PR by RECIST) are associated with improved PFS/OS to a similar extent than best overall response (BOR), confirmed response (ConfR) and non-progression rate (NPR; CR/PR/SD by RECIST) at the individual level in first-line mCRC (ASCO 2014, abstr 3538/3578). We assessed these RBEs at the trial level. Methods: Data were available on 12,185 pts enrolled in a total of 17 randomized trials of chemotherapy (CT) alone or with targeted agents (TAs). ETS, EOTR and NPR were assessed at 6/8/9 and 12 weeks (wks), whereas BOR and ConfR were ascertained within 26 wks from randomization. Association between treatment effects on RBEs and on PFS/OS was assessed by coefficients of determination (R2, adjusted for estimation errors) using a copula model). Results: None of the RBEs had consistently strong correlations with PFS or OS (Table). The number of trials was insufficient to obtain reliable estimates for antiangiogenics and anti-EGFR separately. Conclusions: Despite their individual-level associations with PFS and OS, RBEs do not appear to be surrogate endpoints in first-line mCRC, given their poor predictive ability. [Table: see text]

659 Background: Prospective survival prediction of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer is difficult. Prognosis estimation based on readily available clinicopathologic factors has the potential to inform clinical practice and improve risk stratification for clinical trials. We constructed prognostic nomograms for OS and PFS in mCRC using the multi-trial ARCAD database. Methods: Data from 19,678 mCRC pts accrued to 24 first line randomized phase III clinical trials since 1997 were used to construct and validate Cox models for PFS and OS, stratified by treatment arm within each study. Candidate variables included age, gender, BMI, performance status, colon vs. rectal cancer, prior chemotherapy, number of metastatic sites, sites of metastases (liver, lung, lymph nodes), and baseline bilirubin, albumin, white blood cell count, hemoglobin, platelets, absolute neutrophil count, and derived neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (dNLR). Missing data (<11%) were imputed, continuous variables modeled with splines, and clinically relevant pairwise interactions considered if p<0.001. Final models were internally validated via bootstrapping to obtain optimism-corrected calibration and discrimination C-indices, and externally validated using a 10% holdout sample from each trial. Results: Nomograms for OS and PFS including remaining variables were well calibrated with C-indices of 0.66 and 0.60, respectively. Evaluation of external validity revealed good concordance; 71% and 67% respectively between predicted (> vs. <50% probability) and actual (yes/no) 1-year OS and 6-month PFS, and median 1-year OS and 6-month PFS predictions fell within the actual 95% Kaplan-Meier intervals. Gender, liver and lung metastases, and dNLR were not prognostic for OS; prior chemo, colon vs. rectum, dNLR, liver and lymph node metastases, and gender did not predict for PFS. No clinically relevant pairwise interactions were identified. Conclusions: The proposed nomograms are well calibrated and internally and externally valid. These tools have the potential to aid prognostication and patient/physician communication, and balance risk in randomized trials in mCRC.

Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is an autosomal recessive disease characterized by recurrent, acute, and self‐limiting attacks of fever. Mutations in MEFV gene encoding pyrin account for FMF, but the high number of heterozygote patients with typical symptoms of the disease has driven a number of alternative aetiopathogenic hypotheses. The MEFV gene was knocked down in human myelomonocytic cells that express endogenous pyrin to identify deregulated microRNAs (miRNAs). Microarray analyses revealed 29 significantly differentially expressed miRNAs implicated in pathways associated with cellular integrity and survival. Implementation of in silico gene network prediction algorithms and bioinformatics analyses showed that miR‐4520a is predicted to target genes implicated in autophagy through regulation of RHEB/mTOR signaling. Differential expression levels of RHEB were confirmed by luciferase reporter gene assays providing further evidence that is directly targeted by miR‐4520a. Although the relative expression levels of miR‐4520a were variable among FMF patients, the statistical expression of miR‐4520a was different between FMF mutation carriers and controls (P = 0.0061), indicating an association between miR‐4520a expression and MEFV mutations. Comparison between FMF patients bearing the M694V mutation, associated with severe disease, and healthy controls showed a significant increase in miR‐4520a expression levels (P = 0.00545). These data suggest that RHEB, the main activator of mTOR signaling, is a valid target of miR‐4520a with the relative expression levels of the latter being significantly deregulated in FMF patients and highly dependent on the presence of pyrin mutations, especially of the M694V type. These results suggest a role of deregulated autophagy in the pathogenesis of FMF. J. Cell. Physiol. 232: 1326–1336, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.