Citations

Purpose We determined whether the association between breast density and breast cancer risk and cancer severity differs according to menopausal status and postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) use. Methods We collected data on 587,369 women who underwent 1,349,027 screening mammography examinations; 14,090 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. We calculated 5-year breast cancer risk from a survival model for subgroups of women classified by their Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BIRADS) breast density, age, menopausal status, and current HT use, assuming a body mass index of 25 kg/m 2 . Odds of advanced (ie, IIb, III, IV) versus early (ie, I, IIa) stage invasive cancer was calculated according to BIRADS density. Results Breast cancer risk was low among women with low density (BIRADS-1): women age 55 to 59 years, 5-year risk was 0.8% (95% CI, 0.6 to 0.9%) for non-HT users and 0.9% (95% CI, 0.7% to 1.1%) for estrogen and estrogen plus progestin users. Breast cancer risk was high among women with very high density (BIRADS-4), particularly estrogen plus progestin users: women age 55 to 59 years, 5-year risk was 2.4% (95% CI, 2.0% to 2.8%) for non-HT users, 3.0% (95% CI, 2.6% to 3.5%) for estrogen users, and 4.2% (95% CI, 3.7% to 4.6%) for estrogen plus progestin users. Advanced-stage breast cancer risk was increased 1.7-fold for postmenopausal HT users who had very high density (BIRADS-4) compared to those with average density (BIRADS-2). Conclusion Postmenopausal women with high breast density are at increased risk of breast cancer and should be aware of the added risk of taking HT, especially estrogen plus progestin.

Abstract Appendicular bone mass is inversely related to the risk of hip fracture in short-term prospective studies, but hip fractures typically occur about 30 years after menopause. We developed a model that estimates a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture based on measurement of radial bone mass at age 50 using short-term prospective data relating bone mass to hip fracture, the correlation between bone mass at age 50 and later years, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture and mortality, and prospective data about bone mass and mortality. We estimate that a 50-year-old white woman has a 19% lifetime risk of hip fracture if her radial bone mass is at the 10th percentile for her age and an 11% lifetime risk if her bone mass is at the 90th percentile. Improved measurement techniques that have a higher predictive value for hip fracture in short-term studies could substantially increase this gradient of lifetime risk and therefore be more clinically useful.