Citations

Abstract Advanced bone imaging with quantitative computed tomography (QCT) has had limited success in significantly improving fracture prediction beyond standard areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements. Thus, we examined whether a machine learning paradigm, gradient boosting machine (GBM) modeling, which can incorporate diverse measurements of bone density and geometry from central QCT imaging and of bone microstructure from high-resolution peripheral QCT imaging, can improve fracture prediction. We studied two cohorts of postmenopausal women: 105 with and 99 without distal forearm fractures (Distal Forearm Cohort) and 40 with at least one grade 2 or 3 vertebral deformity and 78 with no vertebral fracture (Vertebral Cohort). Within each cohort, individual bone density, structure, or strength variables had areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) ranging from 0.50 to 0.84 (median 0.61) for discriminating women with and without fracture. Using all possible variables in the GBM model, the AUCs were close to 1.0. Fracture predictions in the Vertebral Cohort using the GBM models built with the Distal Forearm Cohort had AUCs of 0.82–0.95, whereas predictions in the Distal Forearm Cohort using models built with the Vertebral Cohort had AUCs of 0.80–0.83. Attempts at capturing a comparable parametric model using the top variables from the Distal Forearm Cohort resulted in resulted in an AUC of 0.81. Relatively high AUCs for differing fracture types suggest that an underlying fracture propensity is being captured by this modeling approach. More complex modeling, such as with GBM, creates stronger fracture predictions and may allow deeper insights into information provided by advanced bone imaging techniques. © 2012 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Abstract Percent mammographic breast density (PMD) is a strong heritable risk factor for breast cancer. However, the pathways through which this risk is mediated are still unclear. To explore whether PMD and breast cancer have a shared genetic basis, we identified genetic variants most strongly associated with PMD in a published meta-analysis of five genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and used these to construct risk scores for 3,628 breast cancer cases and 5,190 controls from the UK2 GWAS of breast cancer. The signed per-allele effect estimates of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) were multiplied with the respective allele counts in the individual and summed over all SNPs to derive the risk score for an individual. These scores were included as the exposure variable in a logistic regression model with breast cancer case–control status as the outcome. This analysis was repeated using 10 different cutoff points for the most significant density SNPs (1%–10% representing 5,222–50,899 SNPs). Permutation analysis was also conducted across all 10 cutoff points. The association between risk score and breast cancer was significant for all cutoff points from 3% to 10% of top density SNPs, being most significant for the 6% (2-sided P = 0.002) to 10% (P = 0.001) cutoff points (overall permutation P = 0.003). Women in the top 10% of the risk score distribution had a 31% increased risk of breast cancer [OR = 1.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08–1.59] compared with women in the bottom 10%. Together, our results show that PMD and breast cancer have a shared genetic basis that is mediated through a large number of common variants. Cancer Res; 72(6); 1478–84. ©2012 AACR.